A grand business proposal for myself from myself

A grand business proposal for myself from myself (Js)

This is a medium term trading proposal. The assumptions and basic calculations are given below:-

1) Nifty likely to go to 6600 in 1 year or so (discussed in an adjacent post)

2) Maximum logical nifty downside risk = 4000 (chances very remote)

3) Maximum illogical nifty downside risk = 3400 (chances very very remote)

4) Capital required = Rs.10,00,000/-

5) Nifty futures lots to be bought = 10

6) Total value = Rs.25,00,000/-

7) Margin Required = Rs.3,00,000/- (approx)

8) Buffer backup fund left = Rs.7,00,000/-

For nifty to go from 4800 to 6600 in 1 year (37%)

Return = 25,00,000 x 37% = Rs.9,25,000/- in around 1 year

Assuming max catastrophic risk of nifty going down to 4000 (17% from current levels),

max risk = Rs.25,00,000 x 17% = Rs. 4,25,000/- (less than the buffer of Rs.7,00,000/-)

In fact I have backup buffer till 3400 nifty.

All I need to check is whether I have a brave and mature heart and head to conquer this Mt.Everest in approx. 1 year!