"no" to "free" trade

js : trading is a business because it is the business of the businesses

if you can survive part time you can survive full time for sure. vice versa is doubtful.

if you don't have the key, opening a lock is the toughest business. if you have the key, it is the easiest. that's why I always say spend time and energy finding your key

 even a small tea stall can support a life. trading surely can. you need tech of trade, capital, trading character and commitment. commitment atleast as much as that tea vendor's.

the trouble is masses take trading as part time gambling with a respectable name. I don't mind if they are totally missing its business potential. this is much cleaner than the businesses

--

rajan : what i fear the most is that many wanna be traders may get motivated and start trading full time , giving up there jobs (how so ever small it might be).

Earning from trading is one of the most difficult things-Believe me.

It is emotionally , physiologically, and if you do not have the vantage position then financially draining.

I am really sorry to be a spoil sport but i am concerned about many traders here who may jump to trading as profession without really knowing the tricks of the trade.

--

js : I totally agree. that's the reason why I didn't switch to date. I have my own criterion of when I'll allow myself to go full time

--

rajan : i can count many traders who were good in trading , going broke.. when big fund house can go broke , who have every infomation and technology at there disposal, ;a small traders plight can be well gauged

--

js : criterion 1.....18 months of buffer funds...... 2. already 3 months of consecutively making double what I'm earning today...... 3. when I'm damn sure about the system's consistency in varying situations

: but having said that, improving and improving to the extent of consistent excellent returns does lead you to the inevitable objective of going full time. that should be the logical end. but I totally agree that no one should kick stable income source till trading is yielding much more since long

: I never wish to instigate anyone to go pro trader. just like I won't instigate anyone to fly an aircraft without training. but that should be final aim. no shortcuts.

: if you don't aim, you will never reach. your approach will always be adhoc. like a stock market daily wager. like the habitual single digit lottery buyer of every evening

: also, anyone not intending to be full time trader shouldn't be a part time as well. he better be an investor or go mutual fund route or other asset class.

: Rajanji's warning is true and timely. it is a reality check. a spanner in brakeless wheels. perhaps, full time trading is not for everyone. and hence shouldn't be discussed recklessly openly least some hapless unsuspecting guy falls pray to day dreaming. trading surely is damn difficult to mastered. no doubt. and can be the shortest cut to disaster in life. and we have families to support.

: but those who are serious and disciplined enough should either marry trading sooner or later or stop flirting

: I think we all remember bicycle of our childhood with two support rods on both sides rear with small wheels at the end. these prevented us from falling. we removed them when those were not touched in our normal riding after days of practice. when those supports were rendered redundant. our trading is like that bicycle and existing jobs etc are those support rods with small wheels. remove them when they become redundant by the consistent trading balance.

: not before that

: I'm sure some day Rajanji will say that 98pc are wrongly into trading. and I'll agree with him. at least from present state of mind of all..... self talk

: day trading is strictly for professionals and full timers

: IMO

: surprised to see new comers there. and so many. rather, majority

: new comers cone to trading because they can't wait for investing returns. but in the end, majority end up extremely late even by slowest investing time table

: the first 100 keys one gets turn out to be knives

: I have 200 of those somewhere in my old notes.... self talk

: the one which opens mind is the one that finally works

: it took me 13 years. may be I'm below average. now I can't turn back. and most likely I'll make it big in next 26 years. but it took me bloody hell longer than I thought..... self talk


trading is the only school where everyone comes experts and goes out to learn

I'm often amused and greatly satisfied to see that most of the pro traders and experts in TV go horribly wrong.

trading is taken as a mass joke. painfully amusing.

I often go to shimla sabzi mandi and see real wholesale trading.... same in the apple Mandis.

apple trucks are despatched from shimla to Delhi mandi after hearing the price and by the time trucks reach there next morning prices  have often crashed

lacs lost or gained overnight

stock markets are much more mature places and mercifully higher volume but still we trade even more primitively than the primitive ways of veh and fruit markets

pure satta

blindly

the logic behind trades that I hear are shocking at times and disturbing mostly

one of my friends was working with kingfisher. after the debacle, he turned to trading and made double history.

every key discovery is a balloon whose pin is waiting.... self talk

anyone having a real key never shares and hence remains hidden from scrutiny. the pain in the end is big. lonely failure.
groups like this are actually meant for method sharing and making rather than tipping

there is no point staying in trading without scaling up. and there is no point in scaling up without being sure about returns

if one were to open a shop for trading in stocks with some rent and salaries to pay, I'm sure one would trade differently.

free trade is the culprit

--

my views

see, i can't bet my life on that. i can be wrong. 

but my technical understanding says uptrend is theoretically ON and downtrend signal is OFF. there is no downtrend signal as of now.

while practically it is slipping and threatening to fall, there are some clear hints that it may go up smartly in 1-2 days. 

pl don't follow me or anyone blindly. i may be wrong. and as already mentioned earlier also, i have sufficient backup funds and plan B. i trade on probabilities based on my trading system. 

i therefore trade without stoploss which might not be acceptable to others. pl take my sharings only for study/critical analyses/corss reference. pl use ur discretion.

one has to be bold and risk taking to make money. how much and how, is a subjective question. trading is fortunately not spelled "gambling"

the right lens

nifty talk

4 sep

----

"this is all based on 1 month chart

since i trade only positional (and not intera-day) only 1 month chart gives me the indication for that period

it is like using the right lens with the right focal length for the right distance.

and i use only google chart. all other charts of software or sites use different least counts. since i have been using google finance charts since many years, they talk to me and i hear them well, quite well. 

on 1 month chart, there is only a subtle hint of "end of the run". rsi generally throws a big indication for the turning of the market.

chances of the market turning down from here (going purely and only by rsi and not taking any other mandatory cross reference) are only 20%. from my experience, such subtle hint has fructified in actual turning only in 1 out of 5 times, or even lesser.

it is here, cross reference check from other indicators comes to our rescue.

william % r is clearly clearly clearly hinting that this rsi turning is NOT out of those 4/5 times i mentioned above.

--

further, w/r pattern is clearly clearly clearly hinting that it will take 1-2 days more for the pause to unpause.

couple this with the operator mindset and the nasty unholy habit of eating premiums and dodging the majority, u come to the conclusion that i shared.

the waves

nifty talk 

3:07pm, 4 sep 2014

cmp=8100spot

i used to love waves especially after going to thailand, but no more.

i have noticed that when operators watch you watching the waves, they create false ones and disturb them. they use it as a tool to drown traders.

i am of the school of thought that operators have the muscle, the intention and the skill to disturb technicals

i always say that " we are playing at the technical level and getting beaten at the tactical level"

this is one of the reason i allow tactical mindset a big say in my trades.

anyhow, if i do indulge in looking thru the waves, i see that there is no clear wave formation.

we are in a phase where technicals are being distorted by the deep pockets.

waves are like nightmares, technical traders are tempted to see them even when they are not there.

if i allow myself to be scared, i see the end of second wave.

but i would rather use the tools/eyes which have promised to serve me well 

holy gamble (28 aug)

trading is probabilistic, not deterministic

there is no surety or guarantee, only chances which good traders smell better than others.

if there was surety everyone will trade in one direction and there will be no trades and hence no stock market.

i used "gamble" only in a lighter vein. there is little gamble in what i do (self talk)

once, a stunt man from hollywood had said in an interview "only a fool stunt man will do a stunt without adequate safety precaution"

it applies more so in trading.....

===

as a general rule, i don't trade intraday EXCEPT on expiry day, if opportunity is there.
just bought 8000PE aug lots @ 40.25 avg price

in the absence of itchguard (26 aug morng)

it is confirmed...absolutely no bearish signal

though more slide expected in coming days, it is just the dodging till expiry.

till then, we are in range

no positional trade zone

intraday puntering allowed in the absence of itchguard



"if you want to trade daily, then , in most likelihood, you are a trade not a trader"

====

27aug, 12:49pm
so the traders are doing what they hinted that they will do = "do nothing"
except for 50-70 point against-the-trend downside, there is little left on the table to trade till expiry.
no trader can create an opportunity which the operators don't like

trade like u will play a video game

dear arun
every word u have written here is 101% right
find ur own method as u said
and, i can certify that atleast one exists for everyone willing to hunt for it
i feel from ur words that u r on right track
u will be alone in this
and might have to bear sweat, tears and blood on the way
just like those attempting everest (i have read a few biographies of them)
but it will be worth it.
victory is assured
instead of day trading i suggest swing trading
7-8 points per day is too stressful
5 wins will be crushed by one erroneous trade
go and find a method for swing trading
master it like a video game
not like a trade
as i always say
people are playing on technical levels
and getting beaten on tactical ones
regards
jagmohan





On 3 March 2014 05:35, Arun wrote:

Sir
How are you ??

I have told u that i have found method to earn 200-250 points nifty per month. But i am quiting that one.

Advantages:
1) 7-10% income generation surely monthly.

Disadvantages:
1) Always i have to see charts live from 9:15 to 3:30pm.

2) Always  to be in position, long nd short, not in free zone any time.

Its not only gives stress, also it makes me bored within some days, creates confusions itself, also diffuses my passion to see lines, indicators all the time on pc.

...................................................

- Now i am looking for some intraday method. I want only 7-8 points per day, not more than that.
If you have some tactics to earn 7-8 points a day, then disclose with me.

- New methods on which i start learning BTST, Pair trading.
Also i have read your blog on BTST, but you are not suggesting STBT.

I want to trade methods without indicators, Because i think if its possible to earn alot through indicators, then all IIT'ians would be billionaries, as they chew the mathematical formula for an eye blink.

It's a DABBA game..make your own desi rules, not to follow angreji strategies.

Thanks sir..

-
With Regards,
Arun

what do rsi and william%r say?

i regularly post my views on nifty as well as bank nifty on the basis of rsi and william%r in the following link

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/103696/0/what-do-rsi-and-williamr-say-js.html

what the smart money may be planning

i regularly post my views on nifty as well as bank nifty on the basis of options data in the following link

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/102662/0/what-the-smart-money-may-be-planning-js.html

what the smart money may be planning!

dear friends,

recently i have been working hard to find and understand some reliable methods to know what the smart money is doing, what the "deep pocket" operators' next move is expected to be.

i have been fortunate enough to crack one of their code using put call data for all strike prices.

in this thread, i will be sharing my open notes regarding my analyses of "smart money" plans for immediate future based on my new method. i will try to update this daily (time permitting).

(please note that this method needs further work and my analyses must not be based for blind trading by anyone. please treat this thread as pure sharing of my notes. please do your own research before trading. also, pl note that as put call data changes everyday, fresh analyses is required everyday. in case i fail to update this thread daily, pl take this caution in consideration)

Js

=======


pl follow the link below for the updates and discussion.

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=102662

what do rsi and willaim%r say?

one of my pride learnings have been rsi and william%r.

in this thread i will be sharing the outlook for nifty as well as bank nifty etc. on the basis of these two super indicators.

i wanted to keep this thread different from the one based on options data for 2 reasons

1. options data is an altogether different language

2. options data can tell you reasonably accurately for the next 1-2-3 days whereas indicators can help you see a few days or weeks or months in advance.

(please treat this thread as pure sharing of my notes. please do your own research before trading.)

 Jagmohan



http://www.mudraa.com/trading/103696/0/what-do-rsi-and-williamr-say-js.html

my view on the markets

11am, 15jun,2011
= bullish on nifty / bank nifty. good upmove on the cards starting today or tomorrow.
nifty = cmp 5486, bn = 10759

The Greasy mess of Greece

Greece government kept taking loan from banks and countries.

And kept spending on planned and non-planned expenses.

Now, its revenues are not sufficient to pay back those debts after meeting its own expenses.

It may default in its payment to banks and fellow countries.

If this happens those banks and lending countries will not be able to pay back the money of their depositors.

If their depositors' money is 'lost', they may further default to their lenders.

Then their lenders will not be able to pay back their own depositors...

This will have chain reaction, spiralling effect.

In such a situation, no bank will lend Greece more money to pay back debt, that too when Government's bonds have become "junk"!

and mind you, Greece can't just print more money to pay back debt.

Its lenders want payback in Euros! They don't want "junk" Greek currency!

So, what are the options.

One option, Greece declares Bankruptcy!

It will not want that to happen!

Other's won't let that happen!

So?

Another possible and practical option is that European Union (EU) lends big fat loan to Greece to payback its loans to banks and countries!

EU will do so to protect itself from the chain reaction disaster.

But EU's concern is when and how and whether Greece will pay them back this bailout loan.

Otherwise the problem will boomerang again harder!

Afterall, EU nations have to pay back their lender banks and countries and control their money supply to contain inflation!

So, Greece would have to generate trust with EU that it will pay EU back.

How?

Greece would have to drastically increase its revenues, drastically reduce its expenses and pay back.

This would mean more taxes, painful drastically less expenditure by government on welfare and maintenance expenses besides painful cutting of all grandeur and perks to its employees and beneficiaries.....

This explains why the Greeks are out with violent protests...

There is a Greece in everyone of us.

and in the world.

Rather, every country has a portion of "Greece" in it.

US, Russia, China.....

Even India....

And don't forget our "friendly neighbourhood" Pakistan who keeps getting dollar bags from US to fight "Terrorism"!

Hope this explains why good economic management of the country is critical.

This effects you and me.

Literally.

The Man who brought the world down?

Mr.GS is declared "trustworthy" by the Govt.

People deposit money with Mr.GS.

Mr.GS gives a part of that money to political patrons.

The Govt, in return, distorts policy to help Mr.GS get easy access to cheap money

Mr.GS puts that money in crap stocks

The crap stocks start shining.

General public starts chasing the shining crap.

The shining crap turns gold.

Mr.GS starts selling it

and bets heavily on the shining crap going bust (i.e. shorts it) !!!

(only they knew that crap was crap)

The crap finally goes busts.

Mr.GS has made a mountain of a killing!

Record profit when the world was going thru its worst crisis!

Mr.GS gives huge "shameless" bonuses to its "men"!

People who had bought crap go broke.

They go to Mr.GS who happily lends "back their own money" !

At an interest!!

And thus makesmore money!!!

Markets plummet further and Mr.GS buys good stocks at crap price.

Govt further gives bailout money to Mr.GS.

Mr.GS buys more 'good stock' at crap price with that bailout money.

Seeing Mr.GS buy, markets recover.

Several funds start buying again.

People start buying again.

Markets move up.

Govt gets the credit.

Mr.GS's 'good stock at crap price' starts rocketing to its real value!

Mr.GS starts looking for the real crap.

for next innings!

Who is this Mr.GS?

He is Mr.Goldy Singh!

A Man with dirty Socks.

Lives across the Atlantic!