casino royale - II

[10:30 AM, 2/14/2017]

lot of options premium to be eaten by operators. they needing range IMO                      

what better proof required than this being the 9th day within 8700-8800 nifty spot range.                      
it's a premium eating and computers controlled casino royale...

in casino, players play to win or lose, casino operators exist to erode by letting everyone come and play

they manage stocks to manage nifty. nifty in itself is nothing but a derived Mirage                      

and they have cleverly devised instruments like nifty futures and options to trade even that Mirage.... hats off                      

trading fundamentally strong stocks with signals from nifty is the only non premium losing game positional traders can play..,

Weekend group discussion

Murli Chainani: Dear JS, You trade in nifty only or in stocks also?

Js: Only nifty Murliji

Js: Some reasons for this....

: 1.stocks don't obey technicals as much as indices do.....not difficult to understand why...because indices are average of the stocks and hence vibrate less

: 2.high liquidity

: 3.you don't have to study fundamentals of so many stocks....just macro

: 4. Premium is not bloated like that of stocks

: 5.stocks can crash like sky fall (Satyam etc), much more than index

: my technicals fail on stocks.....accuracy drops dramatically....

: earlier i used to blame my skills....but when same method worked beautifully in nifty, i got suspicious and checked deep.....only to discover that stocks are like single cylinder enfield bullet engine that vibrates a lot while nifty is an 8 cylinder coupe engine with all vibrations smoothened....

Rajan: Beautifully explained

Js: nifty can't sleep for more than a few hours....stocks can remain sleeping for years

JP: Just joined....interesting discussiona

Js: that is, perhaps, the reason why they say trade the stock which has started moving....otherwise leave it till then

: good stocks are seeds which should be acquired and planted in one's backyard before they start shooting into trees.....or, in other words, before they start growing even bigger....much bigger

JP: Great stuff..

Js: so, stocks are great for investing.....

: but for trading, only those stocks should be touched which have said good morning....

JP: Veer ji. I wish to be your student...

Murli Chainani: Nurturing explanation

Js: everyone is a teacher of something....everyone is a student of something😀

JP: Amazing..

Js: for day trading in stocks, algo trading is the only sensible profitable repeatable way....

JP: But every one can't access algo..

Js: true....

JP: For non tech savvy ...what is the way out..

Js: if u r determined enough, u can still do it....but won't be a match for equally determined rajans

: for non-tech savvy traders like me, sticking to one day trading tactic and sticking to one or two stocks or just nifty or bank nifty is enough

JP: Yes... Its easier that way

Js: one of the unbeatable advantage of algo trading is that it can throw up a just-awakened stock out of a lot of hundreds and thousands of stocks.....

: since manually u can't match that, it is better to stick to ur favourite naughty stocks

: which almost never sleep...

: it is like asking someone to reproduce a thousand replicas of a handcrafted gun......

JP: 👌

Js: a handcrafted trade will be a masterpiece even before the algo assembly line

: and a millionaire like u jp can always hire a techie to inject ur trading secrets into an empty algo

: i, for that reason, am a craftsman....only nifty, only one trade at a time....unlike the henry "rajan" ford assembly line

: but one day, i'm afraid, we artists will be extinct making way for the rajan robots....who will rule the world.....

: we will be cleaning them after every trading session and earning our livelihoods....

: one day, trading will change beyond imagination......

: we will miss the trading we don now....

Loganathanmoorthy: Very appreciable

Js: like those pit traders of the last century who have tears in their eyes recalling their pasts

Loganathanmoorthy: Trading never dies

Js: enjoy ur every trade....enjoy your every day in the terminal pit....enjoy your every win....celebrate ur every loss....

Loganathanmoorthy: May i know how to get algo p

Js: there are many skeletons available in the market.....buy one and program it with ur method....or get someone do it......

: if u google, u will come across them....i forgot the one rajanji is using....

Loganathanmoorthy: Are you using rajanji algo

Js: i am old fashioned illiterate craftsman trader using free google charts and half empty head...i don't have access to any algo.....it is like urdu to me...rajanji ke paas jaata hoon to chai biscuit ke baad vaapis bhej dete hain...

Arun Singla: 😄😄😄😄😄😄

Js: but someday i will hire a about-to-be-dead software programmer to code my method just before dying without making copies of that program

Arun Singla: 😄😄😄

Loganathanmoorthy: Good, very nice

Js: i still belong to the school of thought that believes that human mind can beat computers in mischief and counter mischieves be it trading or anything.....

Arun Singla: Tajmahal banwa ke haath katwa diye shehan shaah ne...aap bhi aisa hi sochte ho kya 😄😄

Js: yes....fortunately...

: not because i am that greedy or selfish....but because

: the day i openly reveal my method (as if that is a khajaanaa...anyhow) if it is of any worth it will become ineffective as the operators will change the setup...

: operators are like smart bacterium which quickly adapt to the over used antibiotic and change into a newer strain

: a close whatsapp group is harmless

: incubator of ideas...

: my friends as my  guinea pigs😜

Js: just joking.....i know my buddies have a terrific sense of humour

Arun Singla: I m not agree with ur algos suggestion....

Reason:
If trading can be done so easily by modifying algos, all technical experts or programmers from IIT would be millionaire..

It requires patience, discipline, money management and skills to make money..

Algos dont have such qualities, only it can calculate on pre fitted assumptioms we fixed their...🙇

Js: successful trading requires a child's mind....

: a child is a great gamer....

: successful trading is nothing but great gaming.....

: i always say that as long as we are trading we will keep getting beaten....

: don't trade it....play it...like a game....

Rupinder S Raina: Indeed

Js: we are playing on technical or fundamental level and getting beaten up on tactical level....

: a child can beat us all hand down...

: u and me stand no chance....

: the only thing is that that child doesn't know the jargon and is still a child....but given a chance children and make us run for covers in trading.....

: till of course, they continue playing the trades and don't start trading....

: this is the reason why engineers and physicians and ph.d.'s and ias and iit'ians and scientists etc are all losing miserably till operators make them forget who they are....

: i think a chess or kho-kho player or any sportsman can be a great trader...

: any thief or scamster can be a great trader...

: we have had many in history....i don't want to name them

Loganathanmoorthy: Great......

Js: do u think that it is a coincidence that all the top business dons are actually not ph.d. or iit'ians or doctors!!!

: operators play.....u can survive and thrive only by playing....simple

Arun Singla: No they hire for themselves people around all the corners.

Js: they decide the program....they get techie goondas to code the algo and run it

Arun Singla: 😄😄..not techie goondas...the top 10 programmers around the world at their mouth fill salaries..

Js: i recently read "freakonomics" by steven d.levitt wherein he has elaborated how the top dons exploit the poor down-the-ladder poorly paid bonded-labour-goondas

: not that techie techie.....only software is not tech...how to run a mafia operation is also tech

: i was talking of those techies....

: though u qualify for both buddie....

: i know u have great sense of humour too...

u will never look at the market like that again!

I used to get depressed everytime i heard someone say
“now i can’t make money.....market has already run up so much!”
Till i realised a great truth
“all u need to make money in trading are
1. a reliable method
2. a moving market”
--

It doesn’t matter whether the nifty is at 4500 or 6500 or 8500 or 10500
All that matters is that it should be moving!
Up or down never mind.....
If it is at 6500 it should either be moving up or down
If it is at 10500 it should be either be moving up or down
Unless ofcourse, u r options writer who makes money by eating premium with the ketchup of ur blood! (ughhh...)
Would u care and give a damn if u make money at 7700 and not at 8700 or 5700?
Frankly, whose health does it effect as to at which height the market moves? Till it is moving and u know in which direction?
I have seen traders lose money at 4600, 5600,6600,7600.....and i am sure they will be losing at 8600 also! And the beauty is they have always been complaining at all these levels that the “market has moved up so much already!”
Isn’t it amusing!
I no longer am scared of market heights!
NiftyAcrophobia conquered, i guess!!!
Right now, nifty is howering around 8100. Am i scared? Ha, ha!!!
I have drawn a horizontal line, floor zero, at 8100. Above it will be plus 100, 200 et all. Below it minus 100,200...
Keep moving the floor zero!!!

in the absence of itchguard (26 aug morng)

it is confirmed...absolutely no bearish signal

though more slide expected in coming days, it is just the dodging till expiry.

till then, we are in range

no positional trade zone

intraday puntering allowed in the absence of itchguard



"if you want to trade daily, then , in most likelihood, you are a trade not a trader"

====

27aug, 12:49pm
so the traders are doing what they hinted that they will do = "do nothing"
except for 50-70 point against-the-trend downside, there is little left on the table to trade till expiry.
no trader can create an opportunity which the operators don't like

nifty talk

dear friends,

feeling quite good to start participating in the forum after a very long time.

i received a wonderful message from one of the friends which has prompted me to start punching keys and restart sharing.

i have been trading all these months and have continuously been evolving my trading method (gosh...how much it can evolve is a shocker!!!)

but, as of now, the method has reached a fairly advance/evolved stage.....

though i will not be sharing the method (sincere, frank but firm apologies for the same) i feel like sharing it indirectly.

i will be regularly sharing my analyses of the situation as per my understanding and method.

i will be also be sharing, and this might be of good value for all friends, my take on the nifty swing trend as on time. (here, i am not talking of intraday/short term trends but trends good for swing/positional trades)

based on this, i usually take 1 to 3 trades per month, rarely more or less. i trade only in nifty options, nothing else. (money doesn't know or care where it comes from)

i won't be sharing my trades (entry/exit/amount) so that i enjoy my trades without any undue influence, the views that i will share will be fairly clear as to where i see the opportunity. but i am quite sure, my friends will be shocked/pleasantly surprised to see the tricks and nuiances and bluffs and strategies of the games operators play! 

these sharings shall only be for learning/friendly sharing and are not recommendations/tips/advise/calls etc. please trade on your own analyses/discretion.

hope u will be appreciate the sharings in the right spirit, will encourage and be sportive!

would welcome ur questions thru email : jagmohanshan@gmail.com

best wishes

Jagmohan

======

23 aug

there was a clear signal on 11th morning of the upswing in nifty, and it has unfolded accordingly.

early this week (18th-20th) it was apprehended that range bound movement might set in so that operators may eat options premium which was high for the number of days left for expiry. 4 days of rangebound movement thereafter is not surprising, therefore.

i see a very interesting thing. in the money calls are still at a handsome premium while in the money puts are at a discount!!! clearly indicating that operators have bullsih gameplan.

as of now, the uptrend is clearly intact.

NO BEARISH SIGNAL. all shorts, in my opinion are very risky (risk reward ratio is negative for puts as of now)

the market seems locked near 7970 or around that. operators lose a lot by taking market above that.

i expect range bound movement till thursday (expiry). any sharp dip will be a chance to exit shorts and go long at the start of the next series.

however, there will be chances of entering long side. i am presently out of the market, having booked on 18th.

there will be considerable drop in sep series premium in next 4-5 days atleast. these are the times to sit out and watch.

80% of the money is made in 20% of the time......and this is the 20% money time. won't be greedy.

i will be waiting for buying at big dips......and if big dips don't come in next week, i will anyhow be willing to go long when resumption signal is there......

....waiting cooly........watching with half open studied eyes.....

=========

hedgin BN with N : my views about sid's thread

following are my views about sidhdharth's thread

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/136566/0/interesting-hedging-technique-siddharth.html

================

good strategy

but it has some serious traps. some of these i am listing below (as much as i can recall; i tried this strategy in many forms and finally abandoned)

1. what if BN and N start going saperate ways. we assume in this strategy that BN and N have positive alpha. that is, when one goes up, other also goes up, and vice versa. this doesn't happen always. also, the rate of change of both varies. i found many a times that BN moved much slower to N. e.g. if IT moves opposite to BN (which does happen many a times) and moves faster than BN (assuming it is not BN's day), then the situation i mentioned can come (and it did many times when i tried it). many times, N remained in a range and BN moved a lot.....i bleeded like hell!

2. brokerage factor has to be very low, otherwise whatever profit you get is eaten by brokerage leaving you gasping for breath.

3. you need a lot of buffer fund to fund this ambitious method.

4. one has to do this method for a long time to cover for adverse unforeseen moves in BN and N. if you quit after one or two negative trades you are dead. and having guts to keep trading even when u r bleeding requires a drunkered's head....very very tough.

overall, thrilling strategy but as difficult and unpredictable to control as is controlling a bull in a bull fight!

saw this thread and couldn't resist sharing my views.

however, with deep pockets this is a practical and doable and winnable strategy. can't be brushed aside.

only that we talking about playing with a monster of a method.

check this out before trading nifty and bank nifty

here is a website i thought i must share with you all.

traders can use it to crosscheck before they take trades in nifty or bank nifty.

also, if you were not to use this as a cross reference but to actually use it exclusively to trade then just one word of caution:-

don't follow it in bits and pieces.

either follow it like a machine 

or don't.

caution : whipsaws are a lot (as mentioned by rajandran - profit ratio is 42%.)

but the size of profits take care of everything.

http://www.marketcalls.in/nifty-and-bank-nifty-futures 

hope this site and the concept behind this gives you a clue to your "holy grail"

- as holy as it can be!

(busy these days in devising some tactical trading win-win method based on option spreads. inspired by some friends to keep sharing which i will. best wishes)

what do rsi and william%r say?

i regularly post my views on nifty as well as bank nifty on the basis of rsi and william%r in the following link

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/103696/0/what-do-rsi-and-williamr-say-js.html

what the smart money may be planning

i regularly post my views on nifty as well as bank nifty on the basis of options data in the following link

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/102662/0/what-the-smart-money-may-be-planning-js.html

the love hate relationship of nifty and bank nifty

strange - if bank nifty goes up,

other sectors may not follow.

but if it goes down,

no other sector will be spared.

money is the bedrock of every business.

if business of money goes wrong,

money of every business is in serious danger.

but if business of money goes right,

all other businesses are on their own merit.

bank nifty may go up faster and alone

but generally doesn't come down alone.