the false traces of FIIs

:fii figures on 2/3/4 march=424/772/2786 lacs NET BUY

: market was @bove 9050 on 4th......

: so logically, market should have gone up subsequent to this "accumulation"

: but what happens in the next 12 trading sessions thereafter?

: market slips 500 points from 9050 to 8550!!!

: so much for the correlation of FII figures and market........

Guru Mysore: Yes

: stop watching all this (nonsense)?!!!     self talk

Guru Mysore: But how will we come to know if tht net buy were frm index??

: let's talk logic....

Mudraa Guru Mysore: Wat if they had bot some other mid cap??

: correct.....we should have all the details.....

: ALL....

: not just simple breakup of cash vs index futures vs stock futures vs options.....

: even otherwise, operators can continue accumulation or distribution much longer than a retail trader can stay liquid after having depended on this info for hi/her trade

Guru Mysore: We r given only bits of info IMHO

: v no nothing

jeneel: Its like they are showing us what they want to show us. Not actual

: so, till the time we have all the info and the know-how to analyse it properly, we should dump this parameter......self talk

: so far, it is simply reduced to a zandu balm or tata salt on a retail trader's wounds of that day

: i mean the broad fii/dii trade volume info

: similarly, there are dozens of talks and parameters and news talk we are served that we lick all evening all night till the next day's opening bell which has no significant actionable value for the next day's casino royale setup

R: I have never understood option data  nor FII / DII or DII Buy sell Figure.

R: That is why IMHO the first hour of trade gives ample clue for the day.I only look for this one hour.

: option data carries some meaning......but this fii stuff i tell u.....is like the "white money transaction list" of the black marketeers!

: they reveal peanuts and make us nuts thinking that that was all that was there

: so, we must not get mislead....

interpreting fii's move

when market is falling, 4 scenarios arise viz a viz fii activity

1. fii net buying but not much
2. fii net buying heavy
3. fii net selling but not much
4. fii net selling heavy

interpretation
scenario 1 = downtrend doubtful as of then.
scenario 2 = just a pullback in confirmed uptrend.
scenario 3 = fii's want more time to fish for chosen stocks for lesser
scenario 4 = run (short) for life(time opportunity).crash approaching.

and

when market is rising, 4 scenarios arise viz a viz fii activity

1. fii net buying but not much
2. fii net buying heavy
3. fii net selling but not much
4. fii net selling heavy

interpretation
scenario 1 = uptrend at advance level? go slow with eyes wide open
scenario 2 = party just started, get onboard bagsful
scenario 3 = caution : diversion ahead
scenario 4 = last call before the diversion.

if FIIs were not selling...

experts say

that since the market has been falling

day after day on low volumes

(number of pilgrims that went uphill

were much more than the numbers returning downhill)

it clearly means

that some sellers are behind this

continuous slide,

FIIs are not selling!

--

if FIIs were not selling

and have not sold much

since last 1000 point slide,

they (the FIIs)

must be sitting on loss!!!

and if that is the case

and assuming they are not dumb

the FIIs are not worried about the loss

neither about the double dip

......a big bull run is going to resume!

if FIIs are not selling

they are expecting much bigger wave!

they must be buying

or waiting to buy

at low levels!

remembering my uncle!

when i was a kid

my uncle from U.S.

used to visit us every year.

whenever he came

he brought many toys and gadgets for me!

i always waited eagerly for his next visit

dreaming what gift he would bring for me this time!

--

for the time he stayed with us

he would play with me

and let me win!

he would teach me tricks

which got me accolades

when i displayed those tricks in front of my friends!

--

when he returned back

he left behind packets of candies and chocolates

pens and other memorabilia!

--

i remembered him long after he went back

and would wait for his next visit!!!

--

i was reminded of him after long time

after yesterday's big fall in the market.

--

FIIs are like traders' uncles in stock market!

they too are from US and other rich countries!

they too come here every year

and go back!

every year we eagerly look forward to their visit!

when they come

they indirectly bring us lots of gifts

by way of profit

resulting from rise in stock prices!

for the period they stay with us

everyone around them is happy

for their mere presence

is enough to cause stock prices to soar!

--

but the similarity between FII uncles

and my childhood uncle from US

ends here.

--

when the FII uncles are here

and see my stock price slide

they cunningly don't intervene

to stop the slide

even when they easily can!

they let me bleed!

and step in only when i am unconscious!!

--

they use their big moneybags

to unsettle every trade i and my friends take!

they start buying things from everybody

causing others to start buying too!

and when the price has gone too high

they start distributing

those very things

in our neighbourhood

at much higher cost!

they play tricks

but unlike my childhood uncle

take our money!

--

these uncles

when they go back

they don't leave me with candies and chocolates!

rather, they take away all my hidden candies and sweets!

they take all toys of my kids!

they take back much more than they bring here!

they leave back memorabilia of nightmares!

--

today i am remembering my childhood uncle!