something was missing!

"forecasting (the markets) is unforecastable"

you probably won't have believed this if i had said it.

but would you pay a closer attention to this

if i told you that

this was said by none other than

john bogle

named by fortune magazine as one of the investment industry's four "giants of the 20th century"!

--

after month's of learning technicals

i felt that i could predict the markets

accurately and repeatedly.

but let me share frankly

that technicals (and even fundmentals)

can help estimate the market movement

can help estimate the building-up pressure

but cannot predict it with certainty!

rather, many i times

i have noticed

that despite well done home-work

the prediction gets ruthlessly bulldozed.

the probability of being right increases with technical analyses

but not the certainty!

we just can't afford to relax after the verdict of TA.

--

having come this far

it was a blow to me

till i realised

that i must accept the reality.

that something else was missing to back-up TA!

something else was required to fill the dangerous gap!

that TA was meant to play a different role than deciding the trade

--

before i discuss that different role

let us first see

what does john bogle recommend

--

well, all he says is

'stick to basics'

'stick to simple trading'

'just follow fundamental and unarguable principles'

'just use common sense'.....

and you will beat the market!

--

i translated that into a simple trading formula for myself

"just keep following the market"

--

now what role can my TA play in this new set-up?

what was missing and how can i bridge the gap?

simple,

i listen to TA honestly

and take position on their advice.

since this position is well considered

i trade with confidence

like a warrior

who doesn't know that he is going to get killed

but enters the battlefield with full confidence

based on his training and equipment and strategy and leadership.

--

after i have taken the well-researched position

if the market does pro-TA act.....fine!

but if it doesn't

i ruthlessly honour the stoploss

salute the verdict

thump my foot on the floor as mark of obedience

turn around and go behind the market

no questions asked!!!

and how do i know the market is not in the mood to follow TA?

when it breaks my stoploss

or when it breakouts or breakdowns levels opposite to my TA's direction!

--

since the day

i started following this simple rule

my stress levels have crashed

profits have increased

and

their frequency and consistency is heart-warming.

and last but not the least

i have finally tamed the fear of the market!