every morning before the market opens
i open the website
of a couple of renowned technical analysts
who regularly appear on business channels.
i quickly double check
as to what they have to say
about the day's outlook
and the outlook for the week.
this routine has been continuing
since a few months
and i have noticed
some unmistakably amusing patterns...
while one of them
is frank and blunt in expressing his "expectations"
even at the risk of being wrong
(which he is atleast one third of the times)
the other one's writeup
is a treat to read.
this otherwise highly knowledgeable famous analyst
picks his words very shrewdly indeed.
he makes sure that he has left enough
escape routes, scape goats, alibis and explanations
to justify
whatever direction market takes...
his daily outlook reads like
"it is likely to rain IF the clouds collide
and if they disperse, which can't be ruled out
a bright sunny day may unfold"
not only that
the next day
this gentleman
has the guts to use the words
"as expected" or "as i said"!
despite all this
i still read him daily
because there is something in him
which makes me seek his opinion!
why i have shared these private feelings and thoughts?
just to share
how much confidence i have gained
having come to know
that so called "experts"
also can't predict rightly
most of the times!
that they too don't know what lies instore in future!
when i see that even such big names
are also regularly befooled and outmaneouvred
by the market,
my trading pains
turn into mere bruises of a football player!
these days i refer to such websites of experts
just to tell myself
"it's ok if things don't go your way!"
"in the eyes of the market, everyone is equal"
and
"even if you are nobody, respect your viewpoint
as you may still be right, and the 'somebody' may be wrong!"
--
it is ok if your trade goes wrong.
just turn-off the wrong trades fast.
Showing posts with label Experts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Experts. Show all posts
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Friday, March 18, 2011
trading with grace!
the fly
sitting on the bolt
of the panel
of the wing
of the aircraft
thinks
that
she is flying the jet!
-
neither the passengers
nor the turbines
mind her repeated buzzing
till
she doesn't shriek
about her trading abilities!
sitting on the bolt
of the panel
of the wing
of the aircraft
thinks
that
she is flying the jet!
-
neither the passengers
nor the turbines
mind her repeated buzzing
till
she doesn't shriek
about her trading abilities!
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
bravery in the market
in stock markets too
"fortune favours the brave!"
but what kind of brave?
--
1. without method and inexperienced?
= never!
(rather, u r going to get killed without the bravery medal)
--
2. without method but experienced?
= sometimes
(but net bank balance remains same or negative!)
--
3. with method but inexperienced?
= more than 'never' but lesser than 'sometimes'
(bank and mental balance always bleeding)
--
4. with method and experienced?
= more than 'sometimes' but lesser than 'always'
(ban and mental balance always growing)
---
so?
a) have a method, and
b) be less brave till you gain experience!
----
finally
what is bravery?
= doing 'it'
or keep doing 'it'
despite fears
when "you know" that it should be done!
"fortune favours the brave!"
but what kind of brave?
--
1. without method and inexperienced?
= never!
(rather, u r going to get killed without the bravery medal)
--
2. without method but experienced?
= sometimes
(but net bank balance remains same or negative!)
--
3. with method but inexperienced?
= more than 'never' but lesser than 'sometimes'
(bank and mental balance always bleeding)
--
4. with method and experienced?
= more than 'sometimes' but lesser than 'always'
(ban and mental balance always growing)
---
so?
a) have a method, and
b) be less brave till you gain experience!
----
finally
what is bravery?
= doing 'it'
or keep doing 'it'
despite fears
when "you know" that it should be done!
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Trading on gut feeling?
There are two types of guts or intuition
One, Intuition and Gut based on experience and training.
Two, Intuition and Gut based on rush of blood.
The first one is an angel
the second one is a devil.
In the words of Curtis Faith
in his masterpiece work
'Trading from Your Gut'
"Relatively recent advances in psychology and neuroscience show that human intuition can indeed serve as the basis for powerful rapid decision making.
Our brains can make decisions using thousands of individual inputs almost instantaneously. This type of rapid parallel processing occurs in our right-brain hemisphere.
Because of the speed of the right brain, it can be a powerful tool in
the hands of an experienced trader."
Same idea is echoed by Malcom Gladwell in his brilliant
'Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking'
One, Intuition and Gut based on experience and training.
Two, Intuition and Gut based on rush of blood.
The first one is an angel
the second one is a devil.
In the words of Curtis Faith
in his masterpiece work
'Trading from Your Gut'
"Relatively recent advances in psychology and neuroscience show that human intuition can indeed serve as the basis for powerful rapid decision making.
Our brains can make decisions using thousands of individual inputs almost instantaneously. This type of rapid parallel processing occurs in our right-brain hemisphere.
Because of the speed of the right brain, it can be a powerful tool in
the hands of an experienced trader."
Same idea is echoed by Malcom Gladwell in his brilliant
'Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking'
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Myths & Facts about Hypnotism - II
Myth #1 – Hypnotists have special powers.
Fact: Hypnotists don’t have any special powers. They just know humans inside out, and use that know-how!
Trader's confession : I don't agree with the fact! Market hynotists do have special powers!
====================
Myth #2 – Hypnosis will only work on certain people
Fact: Wrong! Anyone who wants hypnotism to work and is willing to co-operate can get hynotised!
Trader's confession : Here, I am again with the myth. Hardened traders frustrate the hynotist. But I also admit that if a trader refuses to cooperate with the hypnotist, he can't simply be hypnotised!
====================
Myth #3 – People who get hypnotized are weak minded.
Fact : Wrong! People with good concentration and creativity are ideal "hypnotic subjects" they are easily susceptible to hypnotist's suggestion.
Trader's confession : I am once again with the myth! In trading, those who get hypnotized are surely weak minded! But I also admit that more creative the trader mind, more he/she is susceptible to "hypnotist's suggestion".
====================
Myth #4 – Hypnosis can be bad for your health.
Fact: Wrong! It relaxes you if you cooperate!
Trader's confession : In trading, hypnosis is bad for wealth and hence very bad for health! The more we cooperate the less relaxed we are!
====================
Myth #5 – You’ll become dependent on the hypnotist.
Fact: A professional and ethical hypnotist makes you feel empowered rather than dependent!
Trader's confession : The market hypnotists are never ethical.
====================
Myth #6 – In hypnosis you’ll be able to recall everything that’s ever happened to you.
Fact: Wrong!
Trader's confession : On the contrary, trader tends to forget every lesson of the past when hypnotised!
====================
Myth #7 – Hypnosis is dangerous and is the devils work!
Fact: Wrong!
Reality: Hypnosis is surely the market-devils work! We must keep the cross (of method) around our neck!
====================
Fact: Hypnotists don’t have any special powers. They just know humans inside out, and use that know-how!
Trader's confession : I don't agree with the fact! Market hynotists do have special powers!
====================
Myth #2 – Hypnosis will only work on certain people
Fact: Wrong! Anyone who wants hypnotism to work and is willing to co-operate can get hynotised!
Trader's confession : Here, I am again with the myth. Hardened traders frustrate the hynotist. But I also admit that if a trader refuses to cooperate with the hypnotist, he can't simply be hypnotised!
====================
Myth #3 – People who get hypnotized are weak minded.
Fact : Wrong! People with good concentration and creativity are ideal "hypnotic subjects" they are easily susceptible to hypnotist's suggestion.
Trader's confession : I am once again with the myth! In trading, those who get hypnotized are surely weak minded! But I also admit that more creative the trader mind, more he/she is susceptible to "hypnotist's suggestion".
====================
Myth #4 – Hypnosis can be bad for your health.
Fact: Wrong! It relaxes you if you cooperate!
Trader's confession : In trading, hypnosis is bad for wealth and hence very bad for health! The more we cooperate the less relaxed we are!
====================
Myth #5 – You’ll become dependent on the hypnotist.
Fact: A professional and ethical hypnotist makes you feel empowered rather than dependent!
Trader's confession : The market hypnotists are never ethical.
====================
Myth #6 – In hypnosis you’ll be able to recall everything that’s ever happened to you.
Fact: Wrong!
Trader's confession : On the contrary, trader tends to forget every lesson of the past when hypnotised!
====================
Myth #7 – Hypnosis is dangerous and is the devils work!
Fact: Wrong!
Reality: Hypnosis is surely the market-devils work! We must keep the cross (of method) around our neck!
====================
Thursday, September 9, 2010
"Paid to be right!"
In his classic "Come into my trading room", Dr.Elder Alexander says
"Experts on TV are paid to be right."
Pl read the above statement again!
"Experts on TV are paid to be right."
He didn't say they are paid to be profitable.
There is a big difference!
To be profitable you have to take risk.
To risk is to risk being wrong!
To risk being wrong is risking your TV commercial value.
Who will want to listen to an expert who is proved wrong!
Which channel will want to feature such an expert!
So, experts are under tremendous pressure to be right!
Don't get me wrong -
Experts, from their experience and knowledge, have stronger opinions than us.....
but they also know that they don't know it all,
they know what all they don't know,
they know the missing links in their theories,
they know the lacunas in their predictions!
Experts too have their doubts!
But they also know that they have to act and speak confidently in front of their audience and prospective clients.
They have to give the impression that they know what you think that they know!
Since millions watch and listen to them, they share their safest opinions and not their ambitious ones!
That's why they use a lot of "If", "But", "Provided", "In case", "Then", "When"....in their talk.
Their talk is more like the predictions of an astrologer - full of intelligently worded general statements with disguised alibis, escape routes, scape goats and justifications if things don't turn their way!
Beware of the expert talk!
Own the responsibility of your trading decisions!!!
"Experts on TV are paid to be right."
Pl read the above statement again!
"Experts on TV are paid to be right."
He didn't say they are paid to be profitable.
There is a big difference!
To be profitable you have to take risk.
To risk is to risk being wrong!
To risk being wrong is risking your TV commercial value.
Who will want to listen to an expert who is proved wrong!
Which channel will want to feature such an expert!
So, experts are under tremendous pressure to be right!
Don't get me wrong -
Experts, from their experience and knowledge, have stronger opinions than us.....
but they also know that they don't know it all,
they know what all they don't know,
they know the missing links in their theories,
they know the lacunas in their predictions!
Experts too have their doubts!
But they also know that they have to act and speak confidently in front of their audience and prospective clients.
They have to give the impression that they know what you think that they know!
Since millions watch and listen to them, they share their safest opinions and not their ambitious ones!
That's why they use a lot of "If", "But", "Provided", "In case", "Then", "When"....in their talk.
Their talk is more like the predictions of an astrologer - full of intelligently worded general statements with disguised alibis, escape routes, scape goats and justifications if things don't turn their way!
Beware of the expert talk!
Own the responsibility of your trading decisions!!!
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Who's a smart trader?
The trader who knows everything but is still losing
is a smart trader!
His "smartness" is preventing him from implementing what he has learnt.
His longing for being "smart" influences his decisions.
His craving for being acknowledged as "smart" forces him to keep looking for "smart" trades even when none is there.
His enjoyment of the title of "smart" trader results into subconscious pressures.
"Experts" are always humbled and punished in stock market.
The moment a trader feels he knows it all and can out"smart" the market, market puts him in place!
There is nothing called "smart-trader" or "wise-trader" or "genious-trader" etc.
These are mere phrases of appreciation or acknowledgement by lesser traders of the last good trade by the traders on the public screen!
But these adjectives create reputations which are death-knell for traders.
Being a "trader" is in itself a complement.
A trader doesn't want any title
or prize
or appreciation
or recognition certificate
or trophy!
There is nothing called "Profit of the previous trade" in a trader's vocabulary.
Neither is anything called "Profit of the next trade".
"Trade in hand" is everything to a trader!
A true trader doesn't want to be on the public radar.
He doesn't want anything to distract him.
Vegetable and Fruit traders of Azadpur, Delhi
Marwaris of Rajasthan
Banias of Gujarat,
Komati of Andhra Pradesh,
Suds of Punjab,
Chettiar of Tamil Nadu.....
....and many more are great examples of true traders
who are not smart
only profitable
without trumpets!
is a smart trader!
His "smartness" is preventing him from implementing what he has learnt.
His longing for being "smart" influences his decisions.
His craving for being acknowledged as "smart" forces him to keep looking for "smart" trades even when none is there.
His enjoyment of the title of "smart" trader results into subconscious pressures.
"Experts" are always humbled and punished in stock market.
The moment a trader feels he knows it all and can out"smart" the market, market puts him in place!
There is nothing called "smart-trader" or "wise-trader" or "genious-trader" etc.
These are mere phrases of appreciation or acknowledgement by lesser traders of the last good trade by the traders on the public screen!
But these adjectives create reputations which are death-knell for traders.
Being a "trader" is in itself a complement.
A trader doesn't want any title
or prize
or appreciation
or recognition certificate
or trophy!
There is nothing called "Profit of the previous trade" in a trader's vocabulary.
Neither is anything called "Profit of the next trade".
"Trade in hand" is everything to a trader!
A true trader doesn't want to be on the public radar.
He doesn't want anything to distract him.
Vegetable and Fruit traders of Azadpur, Delhi
Marwaris of Rajasthan
Banias of Gujarat,
Komati of Andhra Pradesh,
Suds of Punjab,
Chettiar of Tamil Nadu.....
....and many more are great examples of true traders
who are not smart
only profitable
without trumpets!
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Long live the experts!
The amusing and UNBEATABLE expert opinions of experts on
1)Falling stock
"The stock has support at #@#. If it stops there it will not fall further"
-How intelligent!
2)Rising stock
"The stock has resistance at #$#. If it stops there it will not rise further."
-Amazing!
3)Volatility
"The markets are choppy. They are expected to remain so till they get any direction."
-How logical!
4)Direction of Indian markets
"The Indian markets are likely to follow the global cues."
-The global cues cannot be known locally!
5)Ranging Markets
"Markets are likely to remain range bound till there is a decisive breakout or breakdown!"
-Thank you Mr.Expert. We never knew that!
6)Trend
"This trend is likely to continue till the liquidity is there!"
-How surprising!
7)What next
"I think the markets may consolidate and look for a direction!"
-Very smart!!!
8)Why it happened
"It was on the cards."
....and we believe you
9)Why it didn't happen
"It was too premature"
-who made it so?
10)Disclosure
"I don't personally hold any position. My clients might hold a position in it"
-Poor clients....what a position!!!
1)Falling stock
"The stock has support at #@#. If it stops there it will not fall further"
-How intelligent!
2)Rising stock
"The stock has resistance at #$#. If it stops there it will not rise further."
-Amazing!
3)Volatility
"The markets are choppy. They are expected to remain so till they get any direction."
-How logical!
4)Direction of Indian markets
"The Indian markets are likely to follow the global cues."
-The global cues cannot be known locally!
5)Ranging Markets
"Markets are likely to remain range bound till there is a decisive breakout or breakdown!"
-Thank you Mr.Expert. We never knew that!
6)Trend
"This trend is likely to continue till the liquidity is there!"
-How surprising!
7)What next
"I think the markets may consolidate and look for a direction!"
-Very smart!!!
8)Why it happened
"It was on the cards."
....and we believe you
9)Why it didn't happen
"It was too premature"
-who made it so?
10)Disclosure
"I don't personally hold any position. My clients might hold a position in it"
-Poor clients....what a position!!!
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
4 kinds of stock market "experts"
there are 4 kinds of stock market "experts" :-
1) those who have explanation of everything BEFORE the things have happened but are WRONG,
2) those who have explanation of everything BEFORE the things have happened and are RIGHT,
3) those who have explanation of everything AFTER the things have happened but are still WRONG,
4) those who have explanation of everything AFTER the things have happened and are RIGHT!
While the first types are honest Amateur "experts", the second types are Mature "experts", the third types are Immature "experts", the forth ones are plain fakes!
1) those who have explanation of everything BEFORE the things have happened but are WRONG,
2) those who have explanation of everything BEFORE the things have happened and are RIGHT,
3) those who have explanation of everything AFTER the things have happened but are still WRONG,
4) those who have explanation of everything AFTER the things have happened and are RIGHT!
While the first types are honest Amateur "experts", the second types are Mature "experts", the third types are Immature "experts", the forth ones are plain fakes!
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