It is difficult to make trading difficult

 A trade is like the sail of a wind sail boat. All a trader needs to do is to judge the direction of the wind and adjust the direction of the sail. A trader, like a sailor, can’t decide on the amount of thrust the trade boat will get. That depends upon the velocity of the wind decided by factors not under his control. Big storms or good winds or short bursts come randomly. To be ready to catch them is all that is that a trader sailor has to align with. 

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Trading is easy because that is all a trader needs to do. The rest market does. It is difficult to imagine that someone may find it difficult to judge the direction of the wind. It is difficult to make trading difficult.

All we have to decide is whether to buy a put or call. One of them is always right. It is the only gambling with a 50% assured result. We still lose because we either buy too big to hold without anxiety, or we change our mind at the drop of a hat, or we don’t have any logic to pick the trade side. Self talk

saying NO to trades

trading is like a property dealer or used car sale/purchase business. 

you often get only 1-2 clients in a day...sometimes in a week. most of those opportunities are not juicy, there isn't enough risk reward in your favour. you have to say "no" to most of them. if you say "yes" to every trade that comes your way, you are not a trader, someone has "traded" with you. 

but every now and then you come across a genuine trade that has risk reward ratio tilted in your favour. that trade should be taken and remaining left. boredom is the cost of safety from loss.....self talk

Fearing the FOMO

 Let me share an observation. Any big rise or fall is actually in two parts, like a movie with interval. 

Check any sharp spike or crash on any chart. Chances are you will see that there was a kink or pause in the chart near 50% mark. Between 40-60%. 

Pl do check

 So whenever any sharp move comes dare to shun FOMO and jump on, of course only that much amount you can afford to lose. Strong chances you entered near midway 

Standard disclaimer: not a recommendation 😅

Stop running

In psychology there is a famous principle known as James Lange Principle. It is equally applicable in trading, trading being predominantly a psychological game

That principle says 

We don’t run because we fear, we fear because we run

Except in real emergencies, We  should stop panicking, stop running in life as well as trading

We will be successful even if we are injured in the beginning. Because when we stop running, we see. And when we see, it changes the game.

Everything is not an emergency

the real test of the chess player and trader

 every trading day or trade swing, like a chess game has a opening game, middle game and end game.... 

the opening just sets the tone 

and end game just ruthlessly stretches, extends or finishes the win or lose, 

but it is the middle game which is tedious, heavy, boring and demanding. that is the real test of a trader....that's where the outcome gets manufactured or shattered. patience and skill is required. the bets need to be let mature or adjusted.

5 trading approaches

 There are 5 trading approaches

1. Technical

2. Fundamental

3. Guts 

4. Emotional

5. Lottery 

6. Copying

1st is best

3rd and 5th are ok

2nd, 4th & 6th are worst

Fundamentals are taken advantage of by operators. For trading, fundamentals are traps. Stocks fall on good results and rise on bad. Prices precede fundamentals. 

Fundamentals are just rumours or sentiments most of the time. 

What’s the fundamentals of market right now. Already into bubble. But this bubble may become football

All tactics and bluffs of operators reflect in charts. Yes bank fall was clearly visible just before fall. So was Satyam. You’ll be shocked, even covid fall was visible before the fall.

Trading = technicals + gaming

why trading small quantity is a clever strategy

 if you trade with small quantity (3 times less than what you can easily afford), you can become fearless trader who doesn't chicken out amid volatility, and who can trade the method till the end of trade's logic.

if your method is right even small trade size will make you rich, sooner than you think. and if your method is wrong, even larger bet size won't help. that will make you poor, that too, sooner than you think.

go slow to go fast.

everyone is in a hurry...hence not reaching

 In Stock trading

No logic➡️no bet

No bet➡️no progress

You can’t feel good without getting used to feeling terrible. It’s like developing intestines of steel without being stupid

एक आग का दरिया है

और डूब के जाना है

The day you start doing trading like a job where your boss will fire you if you don’t follow the rules, you’ll start being successful at it

The day you accept the limitations of trading you’ll start improving

Treat as if you are on basic wage with everything above it as incentive, which can be anything small to big to v big. Taking trading as a job is not a bad idea. Takes off all pressure.

wait, let her do it

sometimes i feel that we guess the market right but don't let it do what it wants and unfold completely. we do what it wants us to do before it does what we guessed it wants to do.

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trading days are to the week and month what pages are to a chapter and book. they have continuity which we fail to see in trading atleast, wrongly taking every day as a fresh standalone trading day....

sitting tight in trading

buy right, sit tight in trading also....

imho trading and investing are same....just a difference of time of holding....rules are same. if we trade the way we invest, we will lose less and win more.

the only visible difference is that we leverage in trade which makes all the difference in behaviour, and hence results.

reverse is also true imho. u can invest by trading methods, eg using charts. fundamentals as well as anti-fundamental-cartel-longterm-backing (like ACC in harshad mehta times) plus any other factor is reflected in the chart.

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binus thoughts...

- only by compounding one can become rich. without that only expenses can be met at best

- check all charts for trade entry decision but stick to the same one chart for exit

holding on to multibaggers successfully without anxiety

 the way i try and hold to multibaggers all the way is this

lets say i buy 1 lac in a stock and it becomes 1.3 lacs when i sense discomfort against what assurance chart is giving me

i book stock worth 30000 and invest it elsewhere, holding 100000 still in the same old stock

this cycle continues. 

it is like taking out the seed from plant as safety but leaving the plant planted. u have got one more seedling which becomes plant. the crucial factor though is...where are u investing that 30000? it has to be in a stock as good as the priginal one from where u took it out. 

this way u can hold onto any stock as per your system while letting the forest grow without anxiety

Maybe she can see something which you can’t...

One of the oldest cliché we used to listen more than a decade ago when we got serious about trading was

Trend is your friend. 

We underestimated the value of friends for so long. 

Just because you lose because of friends for some time doesn’t mean he’s not worth gold in remaining times.  

To be with the trend requires little brains and big guts.

If you can’t be with 1 minute chart trend, befriend 5 minute trend. If not 5 then 15 or 30 or 60 minute trend. But, for heavens sake, trust friend in market. Don’t leave his her hand.

Maybe he she can see something which you can’t...

the sleepless trader

 looking at sgx-nifty (after market closure, late evenings, overnight, early morning) so restlessly, anxiously, and obsessively indicates that

- we don't have a method or are not relaxed with it

- we don't have a strategy and a backup plan

- we don't trade probabilities with a system

- we don't have money management

- we are in a hurry

- we don't have the appetite for loss

- we are fearful and hence won't have the appetite for profit also

it's ok!

Even operators can't book profits at every corner just because they can't fold up and end the market at all points, at all corners, and go home. 

In fact they can't fold up the market at any given time. 

All profits are notional for the market operators as well. 

They miss all the profits they miss because of their inability to book.  

Therefore, the retail traders shouldn't mind if they are unable to take out more than a bucket from the ocean. 

...it's okay.

heavenly chat with a guru

Js: Traders fed up with the rise a few days ago are fed up with fall now...

Trading is a game of cycles and trends.

Without cycles and trends, big players can't make money

Krish: This means human nature is always predictable?

Js: i would say that in a slightly different way...human schemes and the response to those schemes by other humans are always predictable. in fact, as legendary strategy gurus al ries and jack trout say, humans can't tolerate confusion. whether the operator or traders, the ruler or the ruled....all are predictable while trying to avoid confusion.

it's just that many times, clever men complicate, disguise, or camouflage things in such a way that the masses start thinking as if the confusion is really incomprehensible.

Krish: So that means, market reaching equilibrium too is non-acceptable.

Js: if an expert is at the driving seat of the operators or the establishment, it is almost surety that the confusion is just an encoding or encryption of some degree. because the moment confusion goes out of hand, empires and schemes crumble like a pack of cards....

equilibrium is the truth dead clocks kiss twice every day but hate it.

it is all a game and hence can be played. you only have to refuse to believe that you can't understand it. because you can.

it is all fixed and rigged.....beautifully and mathematically

Krish: As they say, there are patterns in the chaos too.

Js: yes....chaos too is a pattern...whenever you are sure that a pattern is emerging, you can be sure that it will change.....anyways, humans can't survive the chaos, including the operators. and as long as humans are controlling the algos of their trading machines we can rest assured that chaos can't be true.

Js: but the day, computers take over from their masters, assuring them profits in return at all cost, wild moves will be common and markets will die because a billion sheep will lose the attraction to the slaughterhouse.

Js: a trader may not earn even a rupee in the market all his life, but he can never lose love of life if only he ensures that he doesn't lose more than he can afford to....

Krish: That's so true, what maximum then they can do is, create an illusion of chaos to that perfection that it becomes so hard to crack by the same organization that created it..only the elite has the key to keep changing this pattern?

Js: such is the life giving quality of the markets.....

the illusion of chaos...yes....

that's the challenge, that's the hint....to crack the code

Krish: Mass is been fed with this narrative simultaneously to create another confusion.

Js: o yes...bullseye

Js: all tv's, books, videos, etc are all crimes by the innocent, on the innocent

Krish: An illusion becomes belief if taken on an everyday basis, so no wonder it becomes addictive too

Js: but you can't fight them, convince them, upset their cart, damage their dhandha or change their mindset.....and why do it.....as i often say....never argue the system, short it

absolutely

and we start loving the illusion. so much so that we are ready to die defending it

markets are mini-universe

markets only magnify what we truly are.....to horrible multiples

Krish: True, deep down this illusion has its base on the "fear" factor of masses. That's the only emotion that can be kindled with a few extra million out of their profit kitty.

Js: yes

greed too is the vengeance of the fear

a fearless man can be rarely greedy

a greedy man will often be fearful

Stomachs of Sparrows

 In "The Secret of Letting Go", Guy Finley says that though we want not to drown in adversity, our habits are exactly opposite. We cling to the thing which exactly is drowning us.

A trader has to continuously keep tracking his thoughts to ensure that he himself is not blocking his own path.

Our success is delayed not without any reason

Osho says freedom is nearer to us than we think. We can get liberated the moment we truly decide to. But our comfort with failure makes us nervous about uncharted success where all excuses evaluate. We want profit but not mind boggling. We want thodaa thodaa 😊

We have stomachs of sparrows but hate to be hawks and vultures we are out to emulate and beat.

To be successful at trading we need to sign the contract of getting changed in the head. 

Fortunately there is a second way. Understanding the vultures instead of becoming one

the bad ATM dilemma

I am once again amused by the unwillingness of overwhelming number of traders to accept the long rally in the market. they are repeatedly taking anti trend positions and being bleeded.

This reminds me of a very interesting psychological phenomenon...

Suppose you are standing in front of an atm machine late evening and swipe card for 1000rs. Now let's consider a scenario that the atm machine goes bad and keeps vending currency note after note after note and doesn't stop. It counts 1000 and throws them out. Then again counts 1000 more and throws out...

What will be your reaction? What will you do?

Chances are you'll soon call someone and point it out to authorities instead of just collecting all and vanishing. Because that's the way you are groomed. Both fear of punishment and moral hand brakes will keep you in check. 

Same mindset and habit spills over to trading. When market whipsaws and beats you, you accept it like a victim accepts his torment. But when a trending market gives you profit and keeps giving you profit with insanity of a bad atm machine, you feel guilty in your subconscious and don't believe it. You feel so uncomfortable that in hearts of hearts wish that it ends.

mind frozen in strategy

whatever it does, market tires you. that is it's objective. and that exactly should be a trader's objective....to duck that.

it is a mind game to snatch each other's money.....even make others surrender theirs.....dirty mind game....that's all it is...

so, never trade with mind

trade with system

a trading system is a mind frozen in a strategy.

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those who say timing is not important mean to say that they are finding it difficult to time. timing is important. and wherever, timing is difficult, approximate timing is the next important thing.

you can't buy anything anytime without consequences.

to be or not to be fearful (& greedy)

Absence of fear and greed indicates that you don't qualify to be a trader as yet. Presence of fear and greed indicates that you don't have a system yet or are not sticking to it.

Fear and greed should become non players for anyone to be a professional trader.

market is a host who will drink a whole barrel/drum of wine right in front of your eyes, asking you to join but never making you comfortable enough to say yes and take more than a few sips...that too from his left overs in the glass.

being shameless and fearless is the only option.

paper trader, paper tiger

i have always been of the opinion that a trader should not hesitate to share his views about trading opportunities and sides. in fact, this is v important. one must share his market views openly. i have written about this once or twice.

the benefit is huge...

once you have announced what u feel u have taken a public stance. this puts a hell lots of pressure on you to think twice thrice....do all the homework, stick to system.

people say paper trading is good practice. i agree. but i go one step ahead and recommend that an aspiring trader should share his trade opinion or trade. in paper trading you have no money to lose, thereby the pressure being v low except small ego hurt in hearts of heart. but when u announce it, although u don't have any money to lose, you have a reputation and ego at stake. that gives you as much practice as betting your money would have.

to be a champion athlete or trader or anything, we don't need to relieve pressure, we need to get used to it and perform because of it...

nothing propels you more than your injured ego...

paper traders who remain anonymous or unannounced don't gain much confidence from paper trading imho

the best person to announce your trade is to the one who doesn't want you to trade...eg wife, father, mother

nothing tests your system, resolve and readiness than a crisis. the strategy which survives the crisis is a good one.

pressure is god's blessing....provided we accept it