Showing posts with label elliot waves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elliot waves. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

myths and misconceptions about Elliott waves theory

1. Elliott waves in modern trading environment is very different from the stock market realities just before or after the second world war, 8 decades ago. though the underlying logic is same, the rules and application have gone sea change. it now pertains less to retail trader's or investor's motive and psychology and more to the behavior induced by the stronger minority hands into the weak majority to get their way with the final aim of trapping and beating them. it is more of a dodging tactic today for profitable stealth accumulation distribution strategy.

2. contrary to the prevalent understanding, Elliott Wave is not always present. neither it should obviously be expected. be it retail traders' herd behavior or operator tactics, Elliott waves emerge when there is time for it. during tight ranges these are either not there or highly deformed to be identified or fairly called Elliott waves, at least from any practical utility pov. otherwise any lines looked through Smirnoff for sufficiently long time will start resembling like a perfect Elliott Wave.

3. Elliott waves don't exist in total isolation. they are best visible from a particular lens of particular time chart. eg. the wave visible in 5 day chart is part of the one in 1 month chart which further is part of 1 year chart and so on. to understand the destination of a particular wave, look at its father wave. therefore, if you don't see the wave in one time frame, adjust the time focus and look at a shorter or bigger time frame chart. when elliot wave is absent from the short term/swing/positional chart, it is still visible intermittently in intraday chart.

4. it is a myth that the 3rd wave has to be the longest.

5. it is a myth that wave 4 can't enter territory of wave 2.

6. it is a myth that wave 5 has to rise to the highest point.

7. Elliott Wave is less well defined in stocks than in indices as the latter are averages, besides other reasons.

ashokji: Js ji that means anything can become defunct anytime... whatever strategy we build can be defunct anytime... so keep changing .... It's not an easy job, we have not come up with even one perfect one ...so forget about another in my life time....

js: absolutely. every strategy and till is evolving beyond recognition. we have to change. keep evolving, keep adapting. it is painful if possible. but that's how it is. one reason everyone is still a victim after decades.

struggle for survival. survival of the fittest. operators hate fully trained. they just want literate.
amit: Js ji here does it means that Jo retailers ko dikhta hai according to Elliot me vo hota ni hai.I mean the one which looks obvious doesn't happen and the operators take this as a beating tool for trapping retailers.And what happens is quite unexpected but with in the logic of Elliot theory.am I right js ji.

js: it is a game of cat and mice. cats don't want mice to become cats. it's not Tom and Jerry where mice wins

: partially yes. they can't accumulate distribute without Elliott reality. but the dodging requirement results in a thousand forms of waves while we are still stuck with 8 decade old Elliott measuring tape around our tailor necks

: over the coming weeks I will try to practically show you

8. you can't trade every situation with Elliott Wave. only reasonable trending ones.

9. larger the trader base and more developing the economy better the Elliott Wave works. it used to with great in US in early 19th century. no more. look at their chart patterns and that of day UK.... markedly different than those of India.

10. if you don't find a full Elliott Wave despite your best efforts post training, stop looking. there isn't any in that situation.

11. you can't accurately mark Elliott Wave points without the help of other indicators

12. there are trades beyond Elliott waves

13. Elliott waves is a knife very effective to cut through small and medium trends. they are almost indispensable. but in trading feast you also need forks and spoons.

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

observing investor psychology

Q: What was R. N. Elliott looking for in the stock market data in the late 1930s? Did he have a model or theory about price behavior?

Bob Prechter: Elliott had no basic premises, just a mind that was open to the idea that the market might be patterned, which he may have adopted from the then relatively new Dow Theory, which was a set of very few and far more general observations about market behavior. Though the Dow Theorists formed only very rough concepts, they broke ground, tremendous ground, in merely coming up with their observations that market behavior was non-random and tied to investor psychology. That was probably the germ of the idea that kicked off Elliott's research.

Q: What was his procedure?

Bob Prechter: He did what every good researcher must do. First, he recorded the data that reality provided. He looked at the movements on chart paper and wondered, "Can I find forms that occur over and over again?" His answer was, "Yes." He found that they occurred on hourly moves, daily moves, weekly, yearly. He even plotted moves that were decades long and noticed that they were following the same form. Likewise, the specific market did not matter. It could be the stock market, the gold price, interest rates or any other market. Then he organized the data, which was his talent. He began recognizing recurrences in the data, so it became clear that there were indeed repetitive patterns, which he ultimately organized into concepts

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Wonderful and Frank opinion above by Bob, the proponent of fractals in trading, about Elliot. What really made me feel good in this para is the sheer honesty.

And we must remember that discoveries of methods and theories and technicals didn't just happen in the last century.newer ones are being created and formed and spotted even today. They may or may not be shared openly.May be closely guarded in circles.steel it is about astronomical money.none shares intelligence of this significance.mass traders are trading with rotten, fossilized, outdated, ineffective technicals IMO. Fresh thinking is so so important. Also, I don't think anyone shared rsi or Elliot or Dow theory or turtle theory details that early and that easily and in that detail even then when those were discovered.


Thursday, September 4, 2014

the waves

nifty talk 
3:07pm, 4 sep 2014
cmp=8100spot

i used to love waves especially after going to thailand, but no more.

i have noticed that when operators watch you watching the waves, they create false ones and disturb them. they use it as a tool to drown traders.

i am of the school of thought that operators have the muscle, the intention and the skill to disturb technicals

i always say that " we are playing at the technical level and getting beaten at the tactical level"

this is one of the reason i allow tactical mindset a big say in my trades.

anyhow, if i do indulge in looking thru the waves, i see that there is no clear wave formation.

we are in a phase where technicals are being distorted by the deep pockets.

waves are like nightmares, technical traders are tempted to see them even when they are not there.

if i allow myself to be scared, i see the end of second wave.

but i would rather use the tools/eyes which have promised to serve me well 

Thursday, March 8, 2012

why are elliot waves the way they are?


elliot waves are nothing but the graphical representation of the cyclic behavioural DNA of the psychology of the market.
to understand the why and how of the elliot wave, let's imagine the waves talking. what they say can reveal what they mean and why they are the way they are.
this will help us understand and appreciate the rules behind elliot waves as well.
======================
what the waves say?
wave 1 = "feel like doing 'it'. let's do it"
wave 2 = "should we have really started doing it?"
wave 3 = "yes, we were right, now stop thinking, stop doubting. go all out and do it good and big. those who missed, pl come along! those who still fear can join us on the way!!!"
(this is why wave 3 is the longest and has to be the longest, otherwise this theory hasn't been satisfied and will have to be)
wave 4 = did we over do? we might have got carried away. shouldn't we, therefore, retrace?
wave 5 = no, we hadn't overdone it. and in the fear of having overdone it, we have still left something undone. let's complete it. and let the last of the laggards come in.