4 types of learning paths

there are 4 types of learning paths for new traders:

1. large seed money (which they bring and use for trading while learning), (and stay) in the market for large enough period of time

= this category is invalid, doesn't happen like this unless u a genious / prodigy

2. large seed money, in the market for small period of time

= obviously, u would have been badly hit and out of the market, more or less (with a wounded ego and torn pocket)

3. small seed money, in the market for small period of time

= u are wasting time by being too shy/nervous/unsure/fearful/playing it safe. u probably don't have a method or the one which is too primitive or a mere-eyewash or not sticking to it. u may still be surviving, returning to (horse) trade occasionally but u don't have a great trading future ahead. u are likely to burn out / pissed off soon. no future in the market for the cowardly / overtly cautious / timid / indecisive traders. u are sure to fall in the gap between the two hills if u don't leap decisively from the first one towards the one ahead with some above-threshold energy/momentum.

"playing for a draw is the surest way to lose" - anatoly karpov

4. small seed money, in the market for long time

= u r destined to be successful. ponder seriously if u still haven't.

since u have been in the trading arena since long despite not betting large amounts (and hence having patience and remaining satisfied with small profits as well as small 'non-fatal' losses "till u have cracked the code"), it is enough hint that u have been through the journey awake and cautious. it is strongly indicative that u were deliberately up to something. serious observation, experimentation and learning is strongly evident.

after the 4th step, u should (rather, u would be, automatically) increasing the seed money and will be in the market practically forever, assured of a place in the "hall of non-famous but totally satisfied very successful traders"

"no" to "free" trade

js : trading is a business because it is the business of the businesses

if you can survive part time you can survive full time for sure. vice versa is doubtful.

if you don't have the key, opening a lock is the toughest business. if you have the key, it is the easiest. that's why I always say spend time and energy finding your key

 even a small tea stall can support a life. trading surely can. you need tech of trade, capital, trading character and commitment. commitment atleast as much as that tea vendor's.

the trouble is masses take trading as part time gambling with a respectable name. I don't mind if they are totally missing its business potential. this is much cleaner than the businesses

--

rajan : what i fear the most is that many wanna be traders may get motivated and start trading full time , giving up there jobs (how so ever small it might be).

Earning from trading is one of the most difficult things-Believe me.

It is emotionally , physiologically, and if you do not have the vantage position then financially draining.

I am really sorry to be a spoil sport but i am concerned about many traders here who may jump to trading as profession without really knowing the tricks of the trade.

--

js : I totally agree. that's the reason why I didn't switch to date. I have my own criterion of when I'll allow myself to go full time

--

rajan : i can count many traders who were good in trading , going broke.. when big fund house can go broke , who have every infomation and technology at there disposal, ;a small traders plight can be well gauged

--

js : criterion 1.....18 months of buffer funds...... 2. already 3 months of consecutively making double what I'm earning today...... 3. when I'm damn sure about the system's consistency in varying situations

: but having said that, improving and improving to the extent of consistent excellent returns does lead you to the inevitable objective of going full time. that should be the logical end. but I totally agree that no one should kick stable income source till trading is yielding much more since long

: I never wish to instigate anyone to go pro trader. just like I won't instigate anyone to fly an aircraft without training. but that should be final aim. no shortcuts.

: if you don't aim, you will never reach. your approach will always be adhoc. like a stock market daily wager. like the habitual single digit lottery buyer of every evening

: also, anyone not intending to be full time trader shouldn't be a part time as well. he better be an investor or go mutual fund route or other asset class.

: Rajanji's warning is true and timely. it is a reality check. a spanner in brakeless wheels. perhaps, full time trading is not for everyone. and hence shouldn't be discussed recklessly openly least some hapless unsuspecting guy falls pray to day dreaming. trading surely is damn difficult to mastered. no doubt. and can be the shortest cut to disaster in life. and we have families to support.

: but those who are serious and disciplined enough should either marry trading sooner or later or stop flirting

: I think we all remember bicycle of our childhood with two support rods on both sides rear with small wheels at the end. these prevented us from falling. we removed them when those were not touched in our normal riding after days of practice. when those supports were rendered redundant. our trading is like that bicycle and existing jobs etc are those support rods with small wheels. remove them when they become redundant by the consistent trading balance.

: not before that

: I'm sure some day Rajanji will say that 98pc are wrongly into trading. and I'll agree with him. at least from present state of mind of all..... self talk

: day trading is strictly for professionals and full timers

: IMO

: surprised to see new comers there. and so many. rather, majority

: new comers cone to trading because they can't wait for investing returns. but in the end, majority end up extremely late even by slowest investing time table

: the first 100 keys one gets turn out to be knives

: I have 200 of those somewhere in my old notes.... self talk

: the one which opens mind is the one that finally works

: it took me 13 years. may be I'm below average. now I can't turn back. and most likely I'll make it big in next 26 years. but it took me bloody hell longer than I thought..... self talk


trading is the only school where everyone comes experts and goes out to learn

I'm often amused and greatly satisfied to see that most of the pro traders and experts in TV go horribly wrong.

trading is taken as a mass joke. painfully amusing.

I often go to shimla sabzi mandi and see real wholesale trading.... same in the apple Mandis.

apple trucks are despatched from shimla to Delhi mandi after hearing the price and by the time trucks reach there next morning prices  have often crashed

lacs lost or gained overnight

stock markets are much more mature places and mercifully higher volume but still we trade even more primitively than the primitive ways of veh and fruit markets

pure satta

blindly

the logic behind trades that I hear are shocking at times and disturbing mostly

one of my friends was working with kingfisher. after the debacle, he turned to trading and made double history.

every key discovery is a balloon whose pin is waiting.... self talk

anyone having a real key never shares and hence remains hidden from scrutiny. the pain in the end is big. lonely failure.
groups like this are actually meant for method sharing and making rather than tipping

there is no point staying in trading without scaling up. and there is no point in scaling up without being sure about returns

if one were to open a shop for trading in stocks with some rent and salaries to pay, I'm sure one would trade differently.

free trade is the culprit

--

the story of my experiments with trading

: revered murliji has asked for my early experience in stock market.....this gives me an exciting opportunity to time travel and take a fresh look at where i started from, what all i have gone thru, where i have reached and where i intend to go.....

: each one of us, i believe, is potentially a booker prize winning, novel in flesh and blood......each one of us are worthy of am autobiography.....even if we are not a celebrity.....

: i strongly believe that we all should write our biographies......biographies are not meant for only immortals.....

: like ur stories, my story is also quite long and deserves lengthy treatment......i am glad that i kept writing instantaneous life-journey travelogue then and there and what u see in my blog is nothing but the compilation of those.....

: i take this opportunity to share (in brief) my journey in trading so far....

: in bits and pieces, here in a few whatsapp posts in next few minutes....(i love someone dear asking me to share.....i simply love when someone has time to ask and listen.....nothing oozes more love....nothing more does the humanity need so badly)

: well, in short...here it is....(and i welcome all to share there stories also)

: i am an engineer by training but took lot of foolhardy courage (and stupidy) to damage my career extremely badly and that too quite early in my life....

: and i had no mentor to give me sense.....

: anyhow.....i dropped to level II career path and dragged on.....

: due to this, i always remained dissatisfied as i always felt that my latent potential remained unexploited....

: as Abraham Maslow  hierarchy of human needs also states.....i badly missed the level 5 need....self realization....

: i always wanted to do something great and big.....make big money and achieve something astonishing.....

: which my level II career wasn't giving, wasn't expected to give.....

: so i started looking for "lakshya" (by the way, this is one of the reasons i love the hindi movie "lakshya" by farhan akhtar....)

: for many years i found many lakshya's but all fell way short of meeting by criterion....

: just like a range of subjects which are found "not satisfactory" by the Ph.D. guide to an aspiring research scholar...

: and when u r looking for a lakshya in ur life.....u start stumbling upon a lot of quacks.....

: i met people who gave me and inspired me into lot of "businesses" and "ideas".....all only to delay me, confuse me, frustrate me, throw me into loss, make me a bigger failure.....

: all this time i had, unfortunately, no friends......

: i came across no good ones and bad ones i didn't keep....

: had i got a mentor, i would have come out of that "age" much earlier....

: anyhow...

: i tried many businesses but was put off by the nuiances/roadblocks, least to mention the capital / permissions etc which were truly not my cup of tea...

: one option i had heard about was "stock trading"

: i knew nothing about it....and all i knew about it was that it was dangerous.....

: so, i left it even before i caught it....

: one day, i saw harshad mehta in shimla.....i think it was the year 2000.......he was coming out of the Cecil Hotel (Oberoi) in shimla....i was thrilled to see him from close quarters.......

: didn't have the courage to walk upto him and "take his blessings" 😃

: unfortunately he died next year.....alas

: still, trading was never in my "hit list"

: until 2002 when my life was in real bad shape........

: as the fate was to have it, that year, i fractured my foot in a fall and was bed ridden for 1.5 months

: in those days, personal computers were expensive and internet was thru sify.....v slow and.....

: i didn't know what to do all day.....

: so, i decided to do one think....study...

: so what did i choose to study?

: wel, well, well....i chose computer virus....

: i asked someone to go to bazaar and buy all hardware and virus/hacking etc etc related books for me.....which i got....

: for full 1 month i spent 15 hours a day to study computer virus/trojan/worms etc etc....(don't even recall everything now).....studied how the hackers hack... bla bla....just theory....the architecture.....without knowing anything in actual programming......i was good at concepts and zero in coding...by the time i bought c++ books, i was turned off.....

: but my foot was still 2 weeks or so from healing......

: so i turned to....

: u guessed it right....

: trading....

: how?

: there were no books available.....

: so i turned to "yahoo" babaa....

: google i don't recall....

: i searched for everything and anything available on the net on the topic "stock trading" and downloaded it.....

: i read it all, made notes and note and notes......

: i didn't have access to cnbc (if i recall correctly).......

: by the time i became road worthy, i had done a small "Self" diploma course in trading.....

: from abc to options, futures, margins and alike......

: i decided to run before learning to get on my feet and opened an account with a local broker......

: i started going to their terminals room everyday and just watched everyone there......

: i remember poeple smoking heavily in that small room looking at screen with blinking red and blue squares.....asking intermittently to buy some shares, sell some shares.....nobody was talking about nifty.....

: i must admit i didn't know that nifty could be traded....

: shorting was like magic to me.....how could anyone sell without buying.....i used to wonder....

: satyam and suzlon were very famous those days.....moser baer, jp associates etc etc

: i started in cash and carry....and started taking deliveries of the stocks i knew nothing about but felt that i knew everything.....and that i had "arrived" and that "all those illiterate old fashioned people sitting there should packup as an Engineer mind had come to conquer the market.....

: typing thru whatsapp on pc

: i think we all have the "bimaari" of considering ourselves "experts" while in reality we are not even worthy of standing there.....

: anyhow, needless to say, i was humbled quite early and mercilessly and repeatedly.....

: i kept returning home to get more money from my savings and kept returning next day......

: like a budding juaarii......

: the engineer in me simply refused to accept that i was beaten!!!

: fortunately, i got a good job offer (that too in my city) and got spared of the gallows....

: the job was demanding and i hardly got time and strength and money to blow in trading....

: after one year.....i was, again, suddenly reminded of my darling.....stock trading....

: i opened my first online trading account with icici securities which i later shifted to hdfc securities.....

: and then i started trading.....

: all of that is archived as (almost daily) article entries in my blog.....u can check

: i don't recall much

: since i wanted to be a millionaire overnight, i started with day trading 😌

: don't laugh....😄

: and...

: i started burning my fingers.....

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: it happens with every1😄

: the juaari in u doesn't generally die too soon...

: no method....nothing......just "stars in eyes and josh in heart"....@#$%$#

: then.....after some weeks, i decided that enough was enough, i should study and think.....

: should find out a clever method and start making money....

: and then, i started learning big time........

: it was 2004, i think....

: don't recall the details now.......

: thank god, i kept writing and posting in my blog......

: won't read it again as i will get v emotional reading them.....

: and might cry recalling the blood and pain and tears and sweat i went thru....

: every day i would wake up thinking that i will tame the market, will come out with a magical formula....

: everyday, i used to come out with "brilliant" "super" ideas which tested perfectly fine on screen....even back tested fine....

: only to crash and fail before the night when i would invariably discover the flaw, the loophole.....

: it was mostly day trading those days......

: i have changed my trading styles, and rules and methods and instruments and this and that a hundred times in all these years......

: i would always say to my wife that i have cracked the code, only to return with sagging face before her.....

: she is witness to hours and hours i spent every day for every month for every year since 2004

: hufffffff.........

Sanjeev: So u got the holy grail?

: then, when i came up with lots of smart and interesting and immortal tricks (which ofcourse flattered only to deceive), i came to know something called "technical analyses"

: sanjeevji!!! holy grail!!!! so early.......

: it was a eureka moment for me......meeting ms.technical analysis......

: "now, nobody can stop me" i said to myself.....forgot years of hardwork and got ready to start on a new journey.....

: just see how much hardwork we are willing to "write-off" in the quest for something......

: i don't remember the chronology, but i remember everything i came up and sown with.....

Sanjeev: How much u totally invested till now since 10 yeard

: will reply to that.....

: so, i started with technical indicators....and learnt a lot....a lot.....

: i must have learnt every indicator.......tried it.....only to get frustrated with results and drop it.......

: every indicator worked but didn't.....what a paradox.....

: finally i shortlisted a few (as per my comfort level and understanding).....rsi....sma....and a few more....

: then i started my epic journey with rsi.....

: i have no shame in demanding an honourary Ph.D. from (even a fake) university....i have done original work in rsi with the inventor Welles Wilder didn't  know......

: anyhow....

: after "mastering" rsi, i started trading more seriously.....day trading as well as swing.....

: and mind u, friends, all this happened over months and years......not as fast as it seems while writing this...

: one reason why i survived this long, besides my obsession with trading theory, was the rule i had made for myself.....

: that....

: "i will not bet big till i have cracked the code"

: this is the one and only reason i am still liquid and in the market despite having lost so many times in so many years....

: i have quit market so many times and i don't even remember......

: everytime some trick, method, indicator, plan failed.....it felt like a jolt.....

: i had left my career, failed at everything else......and here i was....having invested millions (in terms of minutes, blood drops, peace of mind, health....)and still nowhere near.....

: how would it feel?

: when indicator after indicator started to fail, i was again turned off....this time v badly....

: i stepped out of the trading ring but trading refused to step out of me.....

: i realised that technical indicators were not enough.....

: everyone was trading on technicals and getting beaten on tactics.....

: i was forced to abandon now even the technical indicators........

: for once it felt that all i had studied till now was useless.....

: i was hunting in the wrong jungle.....

Arun Singla: Ohhhh🙇🙇

: but my love for the trade made me forget my (study) "loss" and i was still excited enough to start my third phase....learning tactics......

: very few of u perhaps know that i worked on tactics for quite a few months.....

: i studied machiavelli, karl von clausewitz....etc etc...\

: i consider Al ries and Jack Trout my foster mentors.... i have read all their books.....and tactics was the underline force in everything they wrote....

: i compiled all i stuided in tactics and even wrote a small book on "Tactics"......all that is archived in my other blog....http://100tactics.blogspot.in/

: and then i discovered that operators were using dirty tactics.....

: and this journey continued.....and is still continuing.....

: on the way....i have discovered some great indicator applications.....some tricks....

: i have come across some loopholes of operators.....have got some secret keyholes which hint to what the operators might be upto.....

: some real original work....

: now when i look back....

: i realize that every little learning that i did in all those years (over 13 years) never went waste.....

: no indicator is complete.....but no indicator is useless.....

: every indicator is like an alphabet which when read alongwith other alphabets reveals something....

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: How has been 2008 crash for you?

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: many left mkt for ever in 2008

: i lost....but since i had that rule (mentioned above) i survived.....

: i have unwittingly re-opened my wounds.....

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: Were u able to foresee the bounce back in 2009

: i got my lakshya (aim)......i am satisfied....now working to achieve it...

: no....

: my most precious gems are the latest ones.....

: ur last and the latest lessons are often the best ones and carry the dna of all ur previous learnings......

: my success rate jumped dramatically last year (around july)......u can check mudraa....

: that was when things suddenly started falling into place and i started seeing which i was missing earlier.....

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: Accrding to u. What is the one thing which brings the traders back to mkt   inspite of so many loses

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: Everyday

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: Is that hope to make it big one day

Alok Srivastava Bangalore: ??

: hope, dream, sense of revenge, fighting back, no other way to go, back against the wall, desire to prove oneself....

: there is no holy grail......

: only the unholy secrets of operators.....which are no less than the holy grail....

: i have got a few

: thank u murliji for giving me the opportunity....indebted

Arun Singla: Karat karat abhyaas ke,
Jadmat hoth sujaan..

: abraham maslow was right when he put "self realization" on top and "money-like security need" at the bottom....

Sandeep Chennai: Great story js ji - lifetime of a trader

: yes, i know....acknowledge that.....everyone has one......its only that we are too shy and too modest to share......we all are heroes in our lives.....

Sandeep Chennai: This is true inspiration for everyone who has lost in life and how he can be successful if he has will to achieve

: Never worry about loss.....once you get it right, profitable trades will rise dramatically......it's only till that time.....

willingness to lose....

: t harv eker's rule that "comfort zone=wealth zone" applies to trading.....self talk

: it requires more guts to win than to lose.....self talk

: come to trading not just the money to trade but also some to lose....self talk

: come to trading with not just the money to trade but also some to lose....self talk

: if u don't bring some money to lose, u lose all in the casino and win nothing.....

: a bait is a must to catch the fish.......no bait, no fish.....and u got to have some guts to lose the bait occasionally.....otherwise remember that fish also have some brain

: u have to be more than half mad to be a big success in anything.....self talk

: to be extraordinary, u have to be, do, give that "extra"

Guru Mysore: Losing small bait many times makes to wonder is it a bait or good fat dinner to operators 😁

: If one is not willing to tolerate loss then winning is a suicidal endeavour....that is what I mean by bait, or amount to loose

Guru Mysore: I got it ji...jus joking around

: o ic....its ok then......otherwise, i usually get chhoooo when i or anyone is reluctant to lose.....to be willing to loose (ofcourse, intelligently) is the first sign of deserved profit

: afterall, any money you lower in the market has to be left alone for whatever period it is there in the market......and for all that time, it is closer to others than you......it is potentially lost....it is unsafe....so, if u r not mentally prepared to lose the money u have already betted by entering the trade, u will be nervous and so fearful that u will snatch it back, take it out at the slightest of noise....this is a big disadvantage in trading....nobody can think of making big money this way in trading....and not making money consistently in trading is akin to failure.....therefore, IMO, willingness to loose (intelligently and incidentally) is a very important essential quality an aspiring trader must have

Weekend group discussion

Murli Chainani: Dear JS, You trade in nifty only or in stocks also?

Js: Only nifty Murliji

Js: Some reasons for this....

: 1.stocks don't obey technicals as much as indices do.....not difficult to understand why...because indices are average of the stocks and hence vibrate less

: 2.high liquidity

: 3.you don't have to study fundamentals of so many stocks....just macro

: 4. Premium is not bloated like that of stocks

: 5.stocks can crash like sky fall (Satyam etc), much more than index

: my technicals fail on stocks.....accuracy drops dramatically....

: earlier i used to blame my skills....but when same method worked beautifully in nifty, i got suspicious and checked deep.....only to discover that stocks are like single cylinder enfield bullet engine that vibrates a lot while nifty is an 8 cylinder coupe engine with all vibrations smoothened....

Rajan: Beautifully explained

Js: nifty can't sleep for more than a few hours....stocks can remain sleeping for years

JP: Just joined....interesting discussiona

Js: that is, perhaps, the reason why they say trade the stock which has started moving....otherwise leave it till then

: good stocks are seeds which should be acquired and planted in one's backyard before they start shooting into trees.....or, in other words, before they start growing even bigger....much bigger

JP: Great stuff..

Js: so, stocks are great for investing.....

: but for trading, only those stocks should be touched which have said good morning....

JP: Veer ji. I wish to be your student...

Murli Chainani: Nurturing explanation

Js: everyone is a teacher of something....everyone is a student of something😀

JP: Amazing..

Js: for day trading in stocks, algo trading is the only sensible profitable repeatable way....

JP: But every one can't access algo..

Js: true....

JP: For non tech savvy ...what is the way out..

Js: if u r determined enough, u can still do it....but won't be a match for equally determined rajans

: for non-tech savvy traders like me, sticking to one day trading tactic and sticking to one or two stocks or just nifty or bank nifty is enough

JP: Yes... Its easier that way

Js: one of the unbeatable advantage of algo trading is that it can throw up a just-awakened stock out of a lot of hundreds and thousands of stocks.....

: since manually u can't match that, it is better to stick to ur favourite naughty stocks

: which almost never sleep...

: it is like asking someone to reproduce a thousand replicas of a handcrafted gun......

JP: 👌

Js: a handcrafted trade will be a masterpiece even before the algo assembly line

: and a millionaire like u jp can always hire a techie to inject ur trading secrets into an empty algo

: i, for that reason, am a craftsman....only nifty, only one trade at a time....unlike the henry "rajan" ford assembly line

: but one day, i'm afraid, we artists will be extinct making way for the rajan robots....who will rule the world.....

: we will be cleaning them after every trading session and earning our livelihoods....

: one day, trading will change beyond imagination......

: we will miss the trading we don now....

Loganathanmoorthy: Very appreciable

Js: like those pit traders of the last century who have tears in their eyes recalling their pasts

Loganathanmoorthy: Trading never dies

Js: enjoy ur every trade....enjoy your every day in the terminal pit....enjoy your every win....celebrate ur every loss....

Loganathanmoorthy: May i know how to get algo p

Js: there are many skeletons available in the market.....buy one and program it with ur method....or get someone do it......

: if u google, u will come across them....i forgot the one rajanji is using....

Loganathanmoorthy: Are you using rajanji algo

Js: i am old fashioned illiterate craftsman trader using free google charts and half empty head...i don't have access to any algo.....it is like urdu to me...rajanji ke paas jaata hoon to chai biscuit ke baad vaapis bhej dete hain...

Arun Singla: 😄😄😄😄😄😄

Js: but someday i will hire a about-to-be-dead software programmer to code my method just before dying without making copies of that program

Arun Singla: 😄😄😄

Loganathanmoorthy: Good, very nice

Js: i still belong to the school of thought that believes that human mind can beat computers in mischief and counter mischieves be it trading or anything.....

Arun Singla: Tajmahal banwa ke haath katwa diye shehan shaah ne...aap bhi aisa hi sochte ho kya 😄😄

Js: yes....fortunately...

: not because i am that greedy or selfish....but because

: the day i openly reveal my method (as if that is a khajaanaa...anyhow) if it is of any worth it will become ineffective as the operators will change the setup...

: operators are like smart bacterium which quickly adapt to the over used antibiotic and change into a newer strain

: a close whatsapp group is harmless

: incubator of ideas...

: my friends as my  guinea pigs😜

Js: just joking.....i know my buddies have a terrific sense of humour

Arun Singla: I m not agree with ur algos suggestion....

Reason:
If trading can be done so easily by modifying algos, all technical experts or programmers from IIT would be millionaire..

It requires patience, discipline, money management and skills to make money..

Algos dont have such qualities, only it can calculate on pre fitted assumptioms we fixed their...🙇

Js: successful trading requires a child's mind....

: a child is a great gamer....

: successful trading is nothing but great gaming.....

: i always say that as long as we are trading we will keep getting beaten....

: don't trade it....play it...like a game....

Rupinder S Raina: Indeed

Js: we are playing on technical or fundamental level and getting beaten up on tactical level....

: a child can beat us all hand down...

: u and me stand no chance....

: the only thing is that that child doesn't know the jargon and is still a child....but given a chance children and make us run for covers in trading.....

: till of course, they continue playing the trades and don't start trading....

: this is the reason why engineers and physicians and ph.d.'s and ias and iit'ians and scientists etc are all losing miserably till operators make them forget who they are....

: i think a chess or kho-kho player or any sportsman can be a great trader...

: any thief or scamster can be a great trader...

: we have had many in history....i don't want to name them

Loganathanmoorthy: Great......

Js: do u think that it is a coincidence that all the top business dons are actually not ph.d. or iit'ians or doctors!!!

: operators play.....u can survive and thrive only by playing....simple

Arun Singla: No they hire for themselves people around all the corners.

Js: they decide the program....they get techie goondas to code the algo and run it

Arun Singla: 😄😄..not techie goondas...the top 10 programmers around the world at their mouth fill salaries..

Js: i recently read "freakonomics" by steven d.levitt wherein he has elaborated how the top dons exploit the poor down-the-ladder poorly paid bonded-labour-goondas

: not that techie techie.....only software is not tech...how to run a mafia operation is also tech

: i was talking of those techies....

: though u qualify for both buddie....

: i know u have great sense of humour too...

The importance of maintaining trading record

: there are many benefits of maintaining a trading record....of all your trades.....

: e.g. in judging your track record, getting insights into what is working and what is not....

: ....u r losing in which setups and winning in which ones....

: .....what is ur average trading size.....what is ur average losing size....

: .....and many more benefits....besides for income tax prupose.....

: let me share my insights from my trading record that i maintain....

: 1. my success ratio is 72.7 %

: 2. my average winsize is 65points

: 3. i profit 88% of the times when i trade pro-trend

: 4. i have lost 65% of the times i have taken anti-trend position......also, the average winning size is much lesser

: 5. out of all my losses pro-trend, 75% are at the turning points.....i.e. when the market was about to turn, the trend was about to change.....this insight from the data led me to look for answers which i think i have found....

: 6. my success ratio with futures is 88% against 50% with options....this was a real shocker as earlier i always used to prefer options thinking they were safer.....

: ....there are many such insights i got from my trading data that i got......

: had i not maintained my trade record, i would have had no data to analyse. i wouldn't have had any base to check whether my trading was actually improving....i wouldn't have known what was working and what was not.....

: maintaining ur trade record always helps you know the reality....where u stand....

: besides helping maintain a clean record for taxation.....

.....another insight is that my average holding time is 3.5days

.....i take an average of 10.5 trades per series

....my average loss size 32.5 points

....i loose the heaviest when i have highest lot size anti-trend!!! this was heights of stupidity.....i came to know about this only from trade record and stopped the hell doing it

the more i search, the more interesting things data tells me

whenever i am down.....i look at the entries of my biggest wins....

whenever i am on cloud 9 (like today) i check the entries with my biggest losses.

trading starts revealing secrets to the student who offers his or her life to it on a platter....self talk

================

“Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to improvement. If you can’t measure something, you can’t understand it. If you can’t understand it, you can’t control it. If you can’t control it, you can’t improve it.”
― H. James Harrington

The butcher house

: Stock market is a butcher house in the garb of casino under the license of trading.....self talk 

: For profitable trades, traders don't have to or need to do anything.....Operators do what all is to be done....traders just have to choose the direction, trust the method and hold tight....self talk

: operators are nice people.....they never hurt anybody's sentiments.......they never make any budding trader feel outrightly that trading may not be his or her cup of tea......they bleed them like leeches...till they understand.....self talk

: stock trading is not a nice thing from both sides......only from the winner's side....and winners are generally by rotation......

: there are two types of traders.....amateurs and professionals. the day all amateurs are gone, there will still be two types of traders....amateur professionals and professional professionals.......till u approach trading with professional approach, u stand little chance.....self talk

: there may be a simple way of trading but there is no easy way....avoiding the basics of trading is only to prolong the already bleak chances of success.......because any budding trader has only limited mental strength and peace of mind to spend, let alone money to lose......

: a software is the surest way to commit trading suicide if the algorithm is wrong.....and to get the right algo u have to know the game itself......off-the-shelf algorithms are poison

: a trading software is not an alternative to learning trading.....it is complementary to trading.....

: a good software can multiply ur trading success, a bad one can divide it....

: i have seen most of the traders trade just because they don't have access to any other form of "kick"

: trading is a wonderful entertainment provided u just quit when the ticket money is vasool......don't sell yourself

: bring yourself back.....

: trading is the most difficult and least paying business in the world if you don't know how to.....and the most easy and highest paying business in the world if do learn..... 3:52PM, 28/02/2015] Jagmohan Singh: For profitable trades, traders don't have to or need to do anything.....Operators do what all is to be done....traders just have to choose the direction, trust the method and hold tight....self talk

: operators are nice people.....they never hurt anybody's sentiments.......they never make any budding trader feel outrightly that trading may not be his or her cup of tea......they bleed them like leeches...till they understand.....self talk

: stock trading is not a nice thing from both sides......only from the winner's side....and winners are generally by rotation......

: there are two types of traders.....amateurs and professionals. the day all amateurs are gone, there will still be two types of traders....amateur professionals and professional professionals.......till u approach trading with professional approach, u stand little chance.....self talk

: there may be a simple way of trading but there is no easy way....avoiding the basics of trading is only to prolong the already bleak chances of success.......because any budding trader has only limited mental strength and peace of mind to spend, let alone money to lose......

: a software is the surest way to commit trading suicide if the algorithm is wrong.....and to get the right algo u have to know the game itself......off-the-shelf algorithms are poison

: a trading software is not an alternative to learning trading.....it is complementary to trading.....

: a good software can multiply ur trading success, a bad one can divide it....

: i have seen most of the traders trade just because they don't have access to any other form of "kick"

: trading is a wonderful entertainment provided u just quit when the ticket money is vasool......don't sell yourself

: bring yourself back.....

: trading is the most difficult and least paying business in the world if you don't know how to.....and the most easy and highest paying business in the world if do learn.....

Essential traits of an effective trading system

The essential traits of an effective trading system....
1.it is cast in cement....meaning thereby that it's functional conditions like entry exit are fixed
2.it has a smart operating technical our tactical edge
3.it has to be repeated to show effect in the long run.
4.and for this to happen you have to have right trading size with with buffer funds plus strong nerves

5s of trading

 applying Japanese 5s to trading.....

1.Sei-ri (sorting)

......only essential trading parameters/technicals only......clear the clutter......possible only after testing them initially....after this step u r left only essential parameters which work, or complement ur style and temperament.....after u have sorted.....don't fiddle......just keep improving

2. Sei-ton (set in order)

......arrange the order of the parameters to be used in trading....to analyse......not all parameters are for the same purpose......some are key and basic, others are for specific needs or in advisor capacity....know when and how to use which indicator/parameter

3. Sei-so (shining)

.....keep ur working (trading) desk clean....not just the physical trading terminal and desk but also the records and the trading mind......keep everything shining, clean and clear.....only when u have a clear desk and head that u can chose the right tool and apply it rightly at the right time......keeping the parameters shining in the head by regularly dusting/cleaning it thru revision keeps them ready when required.

4. Sei-ke-tsu (standardizing)

.....once u have sorted the necessary trading tools, set them in order and kept them in ready-to-use condition, u have to stardize their usage.....the process.....the drill as to how u will actually use it when require.....haphazard usage of even good principles will not yield the right results

5. Shi-tsu-ke (self  discipline)

.....after all the above 4 steps, if you don't implement them right, if don't have self-discipline in the actual war, the trading......what good they will and can be? stick to it....self-discipline....this step ensures that it is not you but your method that is trading......u and the method become one....trade is objective and automatic.....emotionless

How to start learning trading

[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: What are the basic necessary parameters required from your point of view ?
[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: money doesn't marry those who will not be willing to do anything for her!!!
[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: parameters bole to.....technical indicators
[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: lemme outline a few good candidates....
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 1. sma
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: Please
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: best one
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 2. rsi
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 3. options data
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 4. volumes (for stocks), fii/dii data (for indices)
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 5. patterns (like rising triangle, wedges, continuation triangles
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 6. supports and resistances
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: What time period of sma is required? 5 or 14 day
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 7. trendlines
[4:26PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: all period combinations are good....methods are woven reverse....based on specific period....
[4:26PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: however, it is the tick size (the least count) of the chart which is crucial
[4:26PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: smaller ticksize for shorter period trading....
[4:27PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: eg, i take 30 minnute ticksize chart fr positional and 5 min tick chart for short term
[4:28PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: and ofcourse.....when u r out there sweating the practice, u will come across bonus diamonds which no book or software can or will tell u and those will be ur copyright / trademark gems!!!
[4:29PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: u have to work hard to deserve those "lucky" finds....."the harder i work, the luckier i get" (quote)
[4:30PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 90%, if not 99%, of the traders are trading casually......and have no future!!!
[4:30PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: 👍📝RSI below 30 and above 80?
[4:31PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: What's the range?
[4:33PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: what a pity that those 90% think that learning trading the above way is "difficult"
[4:33PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: if u love something, it is no more difficult
[4:33PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: never just see rsi value.....
[4:34PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i have said this in dozens of rsi articles iu have written in all these years....all are archived in my blog or mudraa.....
[4:34PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: everyone looks at the rsi value and tries to trade according to those only....and gets trapped....
[4:36PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i have jotted down rsi protocols and rules in my articles (not possible to reproduce here all of them) which should be used instead of plain rsi values
[4:37PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: In bestbusinessintheworld.blogspot. com
[4:37PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: And as per ur views js sir all indicates bullish.  Right??    What if sudden gap down ??   Like if today usa falls down heavily and tomorrow if we get gap down 100points. Than all parameters changes in few minutes??
[4:38PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i have done some original work on rsi and william which i bet are not available anywhere in the world....print or web.....to the extent that even the inventor welles wilder doesn;t know them either....i have read him extensively.....he did the all important basic work but somehow didn't go beyond a level.....i gues he is still alive
[4:38PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: yes, that;s the blog
[4:38PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: thebestbusinessintheworld.blogspot.in
[4:39PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: 👍will search there
[4:39PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: @jeneel superb question....
[4:40PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 8/8 bullish signals doesn't mean there will and can't be volatility or fluctuations.........just because obama decided to kill osama doesn't mean that it will be as simple as taking appointment and visiting him to shoot
[4:40PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: I asked because you experienced twice last month.  I think. ...but you recoverd double
[4:41PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: after the parameters have revealed that storng bullish winds are there, now, operators will try and create trading situations where very fwew will be able to actually get or remain onboard
[4:42PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: see jeneel, i got off because there were some holes in my method for such a situation....which i have since plugged......
[4:42PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i don't rule out more holes, but the detected ones stand plugged
[4:43PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: and
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: if there is an unforeseen (for operators) development in the world overnight, operators may change their plan and that will show up in changing parameters......
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: but we will get time
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: if we lose 100 points till we get signal, it will mean that the subsequesnt rally will atleast be 500 points....
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: No words for u😷😷😷
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: later the signal, longer the rally....and vice versa
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: Exactly😄👍👍👍
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: but
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: as of now.....8/8
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: how can i say something else when this is what i see
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i can't be apologetic for the mischiefs operators play......
[4:46PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: Yes correct I agree sirji
[4:48PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: 👍 good lesson learnt for me Js ji.  Let This learning will be a continuous process for me.
[4:49PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: Will read your blogs on RSI and will come back with more questions.
[4:50PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i don't have any "vibhuuti" for turning into super traders......only heat, dust sweats, tears, blood....my dear friends....
[4:50PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: but one thing i can assure...all this turns into the gold dust....
[4:52PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: 👍👌
[4:52PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i used to be very very jittery in revealing my "secrets" in blog......but i still used to do it for 2 reasons.....1. it was my duty to preserve them.......2. i read a japanese proverb "they won't do it"
[4:52PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: the latest one i have revealed is regarding the options spread......
[4:53PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: some half a dozen mindblowing revelations i will one day jot down when i have got more or when i am sure nobody will take them seriously
[4:54PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: those who will take my sharings seriously are assured of results
[4:54PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i am not ashamed of these self talk because i respect the technology........technology has no shame
[4:55PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: We will and are taking it very seriously as a part of learning from you
[4:55PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: Sir
[4:56PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i can't disrespect or desbelief or doubt my learning just because there is fear that these may be proved wrong!!! these might not be....ever.......self doubt is the greates impediment to freedom

how to day trade

dear Chandrakantji,

u have asked

"may I know strategy for intraday with single indicater or minimum indicaters?"

--

ur query gives me an opportunity to rethink, after a long time, a credible way to day trade, if i have to.

--

if i have to day trade, i would prefer to trade the following way

- a strong stock in nifty uptrend, or a weak stock in  nifty downtrend....at their respective pullbacks in their respective directions. i will not day trade in stocks which are duds. only those with strength (or weakness) should be touched for day trading. lithargic, sick, indisciplined, moody horses not for day trading! this reduces the risk tremendously. also, i will never buy a strong stock in weak market OR short a weak stock in strong market.

- for this, i would have to be sure about the nifty trend. once that is done, half the homework is done. all that is left thereafter is to spot the strong (or weak, as the case of the market may be) stock.

- i would shortlist a few indicators - 2 or 3, to act as markers for entering and exiting the trade. e.g. one can ne sma crossovers, the second being rsi and the third being (fibo) pullbacks (higher lows or lower highs as the case may be)

- i would trade with strict pre-defined stop losses.

- would trade high volumes (small rides never mind).

- would exit in steps (and enter that way also).

- would have a sound low brokerage broker.

- would have lightening fast assured net/broadband connections

- will never take stakes more than 5% of the money in my trading account, even if that means it will take me 50 years to be a millionaire. (because i know there is something called compounding effect which will take care of the things later on)

- i will have good software (even if it is a free one called google finance)

- i will keep god out of trading and not blackmail him. (god helps those traders who help themselves)

- i will be ruthless in stop losses and methodical in profit booking.

- i will treat the loss, if resulted after following the above rules, as the unavoidable, expected and healthy cost of trading.

- i will not spend the profit but keep 50% in buffer fund and 50% ploughback for the next trade.

- i will not trade just because i want to. i will trade only if and when there is one, as per the written-down well-defined carefully selected method.

- i will not trade if i am excited or depressed or nervous or threatened or happy or sad or under any influence.

- i will not count my profit or loss. i will keep trading as per the method. i will remain living a decent frugal life i have always been living. 

ejecting from trades.....lessons from fighter pilots

pro traders and fighter pilots are not supposed to eject till the very last moment.

murliji's poser has made me delve deeper into this off-the-cuff remark which i strongly believe in. let me think the why and how of it aloud here.

operators' (and for that matter every serious trader, big or small) primary, if not sole, aim is to get others' money. (it might sound devilish and hawkish and unethical, but that's what it is, trading being largely a zero sum game unlike investing).

since operators are the controllers of the market (they controlling overwhelming majority of the capital) they have to do that by ensuring that they catch the majority on the wrong foot.

and to do that, unpredictability/stealth/dodge/surprise/shock et al are their chief tactics. they will do even the most obvious in the most unobvious way.otherwise what's so difficult about the bet which has 50% assured chance of winning? (market can only go up or down, can't come out of the screen or go in deeper!)

now look at the other side of this predator-prey ground......the mass herd of traders!

while operators have tonnes of confidence and iota of fear, small traders have tonnes of fear and ounce of confidence! they are pre-paid failures!!! retails traders are doves ever ready to flutter and fly (eject) away, with or without their capital!

this fear is exactly what the operators want to keep the trader's in the losing majority! and mind you, greed is fear, inside out!!! both fear and greed are, hence, traps.

so, what does a trader have to do to be a Pro and not be an Am so that he ejects not a second too soon?

first, have a method. learn to fly the jet to the hilt of perfection. crash the simulator a thousand times. ten thousand times....literally! cry, sweat, quit and return....a hundred times! know everything that is on offer in the market. be there, do that. don't be afraid of any thread of experience. that can take from a few months to some years. depends on your resolve. the more u keep urself safe from bruises and cuts and heat and dust and pain, the weaker ur mental bones remain.

i recently watched a ted video wherein the speaker said that it has been proved that one can learn anything in 10 hours and master anything in 10000 hours. 10000 hrs, at a rate of 5 hrs a day will take 2000 days (roughly 7 years, give and take)......but remember.....10 hrs takes 2 days! so after the second day, u r on ur way and it gets better and better.....u start enjoying the pain after just a few weeks!

practice so much that every damn bluff and tactic of the operator becomes a "seen that tantrum a dozen times" stuff for u.

this is the stage when u are no longer a dove.....but a fellow hawk. u hear all the fairytale story of the operator and say "i am not impressed!"

u develop thick skin and develop of habit of seeing beyond what is being projected. that way, u don't fear any longer......u find it much easier to hold on....a few seconds, a few minutes, a few hours, a few days more! u hang on....u master ur fear and keep looking at the opportunities......ur fear becomes dwarfer than ur self-confidence....u start to test the operator rather than the other way round.....

confusion fog will still and always be there....but u will get the infra-red, x-ray....eyes to look thru....

u bear the pain of the wait and keep urself ready for any eventuality.....u become a sharp shooter marine who can shoot the coin-sized eye of the enemy from a hundred yards between narrow valley of two heads of friends!

u become so expert that u r able to spot right and wrong with amazing accuracy and at amazing speeds!

but u have to have a method....and then, u have to practice it like a possessed soul......tapasya!!!

in the words of one of my ex-bosses in my career....."nothing is magic, everything is logic". practice makes seemingly impossible things appear like magic!

i and they and you.....all are as good as our methods....and our practice.

this kind of practice on the method......ensures that operators can't easily "surpise/shock/dodge/confuse/frustrate/unsettle" you!!!

while a good fighter pilot or trader is courageous and bold enough to risk his life and capital, with technique and practice he has tamed his fears to the extent that he can take the right uninfluenced decisions.

trading is essentially answers to these 3 questions!

for me trading is essentially answer to 3 questions:-

1. is there a trade?

= should i trade or should i stay out?

2. which direction?

= if there is a trade, judging the direction is the next question. finding the trend, knowing which way the market is or about to move is the single most important decision. this is decisive! this is the heart of the trading. it took me years to get this right. once this step is right, rest is fine tuning, though therein lies the efficiency of the trade.

3. what quantity?

= this decision, answer to this question, decides the effectiveness / efficiency of the second decision above. not all situations are to be traded with same quantity. you have to enter and exit in steps. u have to commit the stake depending upon the probability, risk. u have to hold some cards for the contingency!

once the answer to first and second question are settled, all i am left to do is keep adjusting and managing the third one. i have to keep reducing or increasing or monitoring the magnitude of my stakes.

all this depends upon my market analyses and my answer to operator games. this also took many years to spot and learn.

i am rarely with zero stakes in the market when the answer to first question is 'yes'.

"hone ko to bahut kuchh ho sakta hai?"

"hone ko to bahut kuchh ho sakta hai?"
(as it is, anything can happen)

market can rise unexpectedly, market can collapse.....

that u can come to know only once it has happened! u can ofcourse wait to see what happens and then come in the trade. but then what's use? what was to happen has happened? u were not in the contention for the possible rewards.

trading and fishing are rarely meant for those who intend to keep sitting at the shore waiting for the absolutely calm sea......which anyhow, as they say, never makes a skillful sailor!

"hone ko to kuchh bhi ho sakta hai!"

but u can't make a living out of trading like that! u can't realise ur dreams like that!

here, probability comes into play.

trading, as i always say, is probabilistic and not deterministic.

there are times when the market's move in a particular direction high probability and then there are times when the said probability is low.

a good trading method + trading judgement is the one which can segregate the low prob opportunities from high prob ones.

a trade can never be assured. otherwise, all trader universe will jump in that direction and there will be no buyers for sellers or sellers for buyers! market will vanish!

probability is the sister of opportunity.
sensing the probability is like spotting the opportunity.

with time, practice, experience and learning, probability picking skills can be astonishingly honed!

and the beauty of the probability going wrong (mostly initially, rarely later) is that a trader anyhow always has the brakes and steering in his/her hands.....isn't it?

u can always stop and turn!!!

indecision is dangerous in trading. doubt freezes ur ability to act.

it is the indecision which causes loss in trading.

how to paper trade?

do u play chess?

if yes, has it ever happened that u made a move only to forcefully request your opponent to let u retract the move?

what if ur opponent refuses to let u?

chances are that u might have quit the  / surrendered / scrambled up the game!

why do u do that?

possibly because of frustration.....knowing the sheer hopelessness of the situation u find urself in courtesy that one wrong move.

but, if ur partner lets u withdraw the move, he/she is doing harm to u by programming u with the habit of always being careless with the moves knowing that u will be allowed to take it back.

on the contrary, if ur partner doesn't let u do that, he/she is doing u a world of good to u.

u will soon be free off the habit and start making right well thought of moves. u will act slow and own the responsibility for ur moves.

paper trading is like such a game of chess.

budding trader should do paper trading before he/she commits hard earned money to the market black hole.

just like a trainee pilot who initially is allowed to fly a jumbo in a  simulator!

but how to paper trade.

if u paper trade in the way that chess player was playing knowing that u can always take back the move, the purpose behind that paper trade is deafeated.

ur ego is intact. u r emotionally not involved. nothing is at stake.

so, how to make paper trade real like? how to involve almost real emotions which u r likely to encounter in the trading war time?

one good way is to announce ur paper trade. this way, though ur money is not at stake, ur pride is.

ultimately pride or face loss is as painful as the money loss.

u can announce that paper trade to urself (as by writing/noting in a diary whose page u would not tear), or to ur peers in a forum (like mudraa.com) etc.

once u have announced it, u have taken the plunge, bitten it. u would now have to chew it!

now, u can't disown it. u would have to face "the consequences"

u r "in" the trade....."in the real learning"

keep a record of 5 such trades and look in the mirror............u will see something real!

after the pride, get ready to pawn ur sweat, tears and blood....money can wait for the safe shores!

waiting before the next trade

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=142999

dear murliji,

nice to hear from you.

now when i know that you are physically in the u.s. i miss your routine presence in mudraa more than when i knew, in the back of mind, that u were somewhere around.

your observation is good and your question pointed and right.

let me ask myself and attempt a frank answer.

-

i put the sl @ 5090spot equivalent because, at that time, 5090 was the line which, if crossed from below, would have indicated, as per my understanding, the pause or end of the downward slide.

infact, for quite sometime, nifty spot kept hovering around 5089.....almost teasing......missing it by a whisker 2-3 times before finally crossing it.

why i didn't square @ 5077spot = because that was not the line which indicated the end of downslide.....unlike 5090 which did.

the next question is - why i didn't go long @ 5090 after squaring shorts.

there are a few reasons when i rethink.

one, i was quite stressed after spending quite some time observing tick by tick in that tense situation with loaded position. i had to breathe again after coming out of the ring.

second, somewhere in the back of head, i knew that while markets may stop falling that may not itself indicate that they are about to rise.

so, as a natural instinct, i stood up the table, walked out, freshened up, relaxed a bit, returned, forgot the day trade and started looking for btst stbt opportunity.

with that fresh mind, and once out of the shadow of day trade's stress, i could focus on overnight trade signals better.

one more thing, the momentum (often unjustified and mob-minded) is difficult to change at the end, it is often hiding a different picture for the next day, when seen from a distance.

just like every morning is like a fresh puzzle and needs fresh look, every overnight set-up is a fresh riddle and needs a fresh view, detatched from the midset overhang of the day's workout.

--

the sabzimandi train analogy is right.

---

when i squared the shorts, i was not sure whether the train to the other side was ready for leaving.

the markets could easily have risen to 5030 levels before gap down the next day. in that case, it would have been prudent to book shorts and wait for shorting again.

---

say my hello to the president.

hope he or his treasury secretary or fed chief doesn't say anything which spoils my overnight weekend long position.

love and trade

you can't become rich
without the power of consistent multiplication

you can't multiply
without taking risk

you can't take and survive risk
without discpline

you can't be disciplined
without confidence in discipline

you can't have confidence
without knowledge

you can't have the real knowledge
without struggle

you can't survive the struggle
without determination

you can't be determined
without passion

you can't be passionate
without loving the occupation!

trading is about love
before it is about money.

anything to lose!

want to be successful in trading?
here is a simple way.
"make mistakes!"
but you won't.
so i hereby, change my wording
"stick to your convictions of a trade"
only 2 things are possible
- either ur conviction will be proved right
- or ur system's chinks will be exposed, hence paving way for improvement.
--
in his masterpiece
"6 success forces"
 joseph sugarman had included one success force as
"do anything to fail"
--
if , however
you don't believe in admitting the mistake
and don't believe in improving your trading system
or,
don't have a trading system in first place
i have only one advice
"don't make mistakes at all!"
there is only one way of doing that
don't trade.




(niftyshots.blogspot.com)

gtalk

JP :
Banta Singh went to an eye specialist to get his eyes tested and asked "Doctor, will I be able to read after wearing glasses?"
Yes of course, said the doctor, why not!
"Oh How nice it would be I have been illiterate for so long" replied Banta with joy.
Me:
Ha ha....same thing happens when people enter stock market, wear technical glasses and expect to read profit without getting literate about trading psychology \
SA:
sir i am not active trader
guide me where can i learn technical analysis?
Me:
let me give u a different advise. don't learn technical analysis. observe price movement for many days and ur own methods will pop in ur head.

SA: ok
you mean i have to observe after trading hours?
Me:
observe before during and after trading hours, gradually ur trading gut will get subconsciously programmed. just like some of the best auto mechanics in my town are illiterates but are most educated by their experience and observation
SA:
ok sir
sure
thank you very much for your guidance
observing NIFY only enough right?

Me:
u r welcome!
yes observation is the best education. killer training!
=============================================
u can gtalk with me @ jagmohanshan@ g mail.com
for my view on nifty keep track of my updates in mudraa.com
for my nifty views and links to articles in mudraa send ur cell no. to 09418037474
Js (niftyshots.blogspot)

good batsmen can be good traders

yes,
a good batsman can be a good trader.
lets see how....


a good batsman tries to read the bowler's hand while he releases the ball
= a good trader needs to read the hands of the operators


a good batsman knows the field setting
= a good trade knows the chart setting


a good batsman doesn't fiddle with a ball too much out of stump and leaving him
= a good trader doesn't fiddle with an "inviting opportunity" too much "out of stump and leaving him"


a good batsman doesn't hesitate to use his feet once he has seen the ball well
= a good trader doesn't hesitate to take the trade once he has seen it well


a good batsman respects every good ball by the bowler
= a good trader respects every good trick by the operator


a good batsman knows that every ball can't be hit for a six
= a good trader knows that every price movement can't be traded for a "six"


a good batsman knows that a ball can't be hit as demanded by the spectators
= a good trader doesn't get carried away by the hooting of the "spectators of fear,greed and excitement" inside his head


a good batsman knows that he needs to settle down, read the pitch and read the wicket before giving a charge
= a good trader knows that he must understand the market situation, trend and stage of the trend before entering the trade


a good batsman knows the importance of singles and running between the wickets
= a good trader knows the importance of booking every profit that may vanish. he knows the importance of scalping.


a good batsman knows the importance of partnerships, staying at the wicket.
= a good trader knows the importance of holding the nerve and staying in a winning trade


a good batsman knows that he must face the pace to score
= a good trader knows that he must face the fury of volatility


a good batsman knows that more the pace of the ball easier it is to score by just sweet timing.
= a good trader knows that more the volatility and tricks used by the operators, easier it is to make money by just sweet timing.


a good batsman knows that at times he needs to see off the new ball, see off a fierce spell....
= a good trader knows that at times he needs to just pass-off and see-off the fierce spell of uncertainty, volatility et al.


a good batsman knows that getting out at duck is part of the game
= a good trader knows that loss, hard luck and wrong decisions are part of the trade.


a good batsman knows that every new innings is new and different
= a good trader knows that every new trade is new and different


---


be "the wall", "mr.dependable", "the colonel", "the hurricane".............