markets and politics

markets are part of politics...look at US markets...no president gets elected/reelected, if markets dont do well.... when trump demanded rate cut last month, the almost sure rate cut was delayed by the Fed as they wanted to cut it for the incumbant president but didn't want it to be done coinciding with trump demand

andre minassian, my idol, has openly said it time and again. he never uses charts, but trades on the basis of understanding chess position and vested interests. i strongly recommend his interview series given to ukspreadbetting.... he has given almost no interview before or after, but in this series, he has spilled all beans

https://youtu.be/VUtp5KVR09o?si=3l6GEPzzWhfKQSrL

the belle

one of my trader friends from Chennai "M" was in the Netherlands as IT professional. we came in contact with each other through mudraa.com. what an IT buff he was. i was scared because of his daring capabilities. once he came to meet me at Shimla and stayed for over a month. he needed fast internet access. he was daring enough to hack a service provider. the reasons i am "praising" his skills lie in what i am going to share below.

one of his (even more sharp) IT pro friend "K" was in the UK, working for someone in London Stock Exchange. my friend M told me that K was always under intense surveillance...including when he called his family or friends. every movement and acquaintance was strictly as per dos and don'ts. for all this and beyond, he was paid much much more than his pass-out peers.

what was "K" doing?

well, he was the programmer (one of the team) who were asked to create and manage the Bots (robots/programs) which would be given instruction every now and then as to where to take the market or a particular stock in the next few hours or days or weeks or months....both sides

core members/experts/syndicates decide what to do and then let their (computer) jockeys take the (market/stock) horses where they want to...

...computerized accumulation and distribution at its ruthless execution.

i spent months if not years looking for the pugmarks and traces of those computer synchronized belle's...got some clues...in fact quite a few.

the races and the race of races...all are rigged.

thank God!

where are the markets headed now?

23 march 2020

nifty : 7777
dow jones : 19160

people might be thinking that after this gigantic fall we must be near the bottom of the market. they must be anticipating a bounce.

imho, my reading of the medium term charts whispers to me that this is not the end of the bear run. the rout is not over. it is heading down and likely to get uglier. i see the "sell on rise" phase to continue till april end. the whole world of business and finance would have changed by then.

it is no ordinary bear market. notwithstanding intermittent small and medium hope bounces, it is a collapse that will result in the end of a world-order and hence will lead to a brand new order. we are heading towards a metamorphosis of the world. it is going to be chaotic and extremely painful.

while everyone is shocked and minds are frozen, holding breath waiting for the signs of the start of the end of this nightmare, it is difficult to start thinking of the possible scenario post the dust settles.

here are some likely scenarios:

* demand worldwide will collapse big time

= the recovery will be first in the essential products and services, then in the comforts followed by the luxury ones. the non-essentials will take, rather quite a long time...

* purchasing power will collapse

= one possible solution to this is to (in simple words) give everyone some money. more specifically do direct deposits in everyone's account, postpone the loan paybacks, drastically reduce the interest rates, press the accelerator on government spending (there is no dearth of projects to be taken for the next decades, just like China did a couple of decades ago), don't worry about the fiscal deficit and print money instead of worrying about tax collections, etc. though a logical and logistics nightmare for some countries, that will surely help in restarting consumption though will result in inflation. and more critically, that will defend currencies and save the banks.

* worldwide currency reset is likely to be there. what needs to  be seen is what happens to the balance between the currencies. there is expected to be a big upheaval there. currencies that will survive better will be the ones of the countries which are better prepared to stage a comeback.

* serious global supply chain disruptions and damage.

= restructuring is inevitable. new supply chains and suppliers will be hunted and created while the older non-strategic risky unviable or sub-standard ones will be dumped or left mercilessly. the fitter economies and companies will win at the cost of others which will become sick or dead.

* businesses will change hands.

= while most of the business ideas will rise from the ashes, the ones to carry-up those ideas on shoulders are likely to be different from the ones which carried them before the storm. like a rugby match, the adaptors will snatch the market from those who fail to.

* fad and luxury products and services will vanish for a long time if not forever.

* get ready for hyper-inflation scenarios as currencies and economies melt and struggle for survival. hedge with gold or crypto-currencies.

* GDPs of all countries are set for a reset in time. the expected "technical" rebound for most will be an unending wait.

* new services and products and categories will pop up.

* new world order will be as per new realities.

* unemployment will go up to draconian levels threatening law and order besides leading to medical nightmare, hunger, and misery.

permanent changes are inevitable in every arena of life. the world is about to make way for a new one.

welcome to the renovation! in fact, innovation!

it is a brutal global disruption and extends beyond just money.

by the way, it is all man-made. many out there aren't surprised. in fact, they know it is all happening to a script, rather perfectly!

are the markets fixed?

yes, the markets are fixed.

(i would, rather, prefer to call it - "controlled". i would certainly not called them "rigged".)

if they were not (fixed), they wouldn't be there at first place. at least, not the size they are at any given time.

they are, because of this reason, a large generator of gaming and service (pseudo-) employment.

so, large that you would hold your head in disbelief if you were to know the real numbers.

almost fake markets are the biggest supporters and insurance to the economy of the world. without them, a major part of the economy would collapse.

markets suck most of the poison and pain for you for most of the time.

markets are the solution to the problem of making life less miserable for most of the world, mostly indirectly.

markets are engine of the world. and here, i am not talking about the stock markets but the money market which has the stock market as its piston and cylinder.

markets are the necessary evil. in fact, critical evil. without this evil, the real ugly face of the "good" (anti-evil) will be exposed. good exists because of the evil. evil has been hated far too much and far too long for the politics and narrative of the good to live and survive. they have out the human greed to the best possible use in the service of the humanity which otherwise can't sustain itself with the limited ideas of gainful employment it has beyond the basic food, shelter, medicine and clothing ideas.

markets are the biggest reason, cause and motivator for most of the things on the planet, if not all.

my these views have got bolstered after i listened to Andre Minassian. don't listen to him. he will change the way you think about the markets, the world in general and money in particular. and certainly don't watch the Atlantic Reports channel.

people probably hate markets for being fixed. if they knew enough, they would be grateful!

and, by the way, just because they are fixed, you can make money in them. if they were not, they would make you and all bankrupt for sure, because of the sheer lawlessness and randomness with which the markets would behave in the hands of the logical mad masses who know nothing behind the scenes and react to everything.

for once, i want to say "thank you" to all so-called manipulators of the markets in specific and the world in general.

don't bother about the news

imo, technical traders should be purists.

they shouldn't bother about fundamentals or news.

any news or development that doesn't go with the trend/contour predicted by advance technical analyses is likely to be dampened and nullified thus giving chance to the technical and tactical trader another (artificial) opportunity to trade to profit.

an eye on a forthcoming news is the max a purist trechnical trader should keep. that's all.

predicting which way the event unfurls is not that important (it is anyway impossible to predict the outcome except with insider's information). what's actually important is having a tactical trade setup (with a plan to profit from whichever way the market moves after or during the event).

how many times have we seen market go big up and then big down after the completion of the event such as end of budget speech or fed/rbi rate cut or increase?

prices are sniffer dogs of fundamental masters.....they have the insider information of the approaching fundamentals.

any "disturbing" news or fundamental doesn't survive for long. operators can't stop news, but they can more than absorb them.....worse, they use them

events are known beforehand to the powers which are.

and the shadow of their intentions are clear on the charts/indicators/signs. any drama courtesy event/news (foreseen/unforeseen) is not much different from crocodile tears.

gulp it all with a pinch of salt.

and don't forget to say "thank you". good traders should be masters of mannerisms and etiquette, especially when in profit.

the real bluff...

i am, frankly and genuinely though, v uncomfortable with this spike (today and yesterday).

long long ago, i used to divide rises of three types.....climbs, spike, shift...depending upon the angle of rise and the magnitude.

while climbs were reasonably stable, spikes were fragile and shifts (vertical ones) were rock solid. i even wrote an article on it*.

current one seems like a shift. options data also bullish. but the down rally was just half over. i was and am perplexed. but i, fortunately, always kept room for surprises/adjustments in my system.

there was no real surprise worth its salt in the past many months since i am on this version of the system, as u are witness to, but this one is.....going by the sheer magnitude and the time it took.

this may well turn out to be a non-event bluff in line with what i was expecting till noon today (49% down rally was left) but if may well turn out to be one of those occasional "re-calibration" "real bluffs".......





*http://thebestbusinessintheworld.blogspot.in/2010/02/climb-spike-and-shift-day-trading.html

the proof

left upto retail traders market can never remain in a tight range.

markets will always drift (and often stupidly, wildly, illogically, uncontrollably) if the direction and magnitude were to be decided by retail traders.

a tight range and anything and everything else is "allowed" or "ensured" by the operators IMO.

.....the mere presence of tight range (and for that matter many more interesting patterns) is a stark proof that operators exist and control the market.

bitter truth

everything in the market is predeterminded and cooked in the short to medium time frame. any untoward unforeseen event is reacted to but soon dissolved and nullified if against the original route map of the operators

restless elephants of the market

one reason why, at times, operators take time to move the market and keep it range bound, besides dodging tactics, is that they need time to offload or accumulate large quantities within a range of price.

their situation is not like ours that place order for a few lots, get the order executed and we are done.

...but much bigger (at times mind-boggling) numbers.

imagine u having to take longs in 10000 nifty lots within a range of 20 points before letting the market move - without creating panic or furor, without disturbing the law and order of the market, without dropping even a hint, without disturbing the price.

........u will sweat at the challenge.

........no doubt, computers help u do that, but u need deep pockets to douse threatening fires, to keep the restless elephants patient.......

bulls, bears, dogs and pigs

[9:55AM, 10/07/2015] Guru Mysore: @JS how to find who is bull trader or bear trader?.. 😳..

[9:57AM, 10/07/2015] ashok: Depends who speaks when ...

===============

what an answer@ashokji.....loaded and right

there are 5 kinds of traders....

1.sworn bulls
= either investors, agents of bears, only-sunny days creatures, or fools

e.g. sameer arora.....(disclosure...I'm his a.c.....bigger than a fan)

2.sworn bears
= either whistle blowers, agents of bulls, only-raining day creatures, or pessimist fools

e.g. shankar sharma.....what confidence and clarity man!

3. temporary bulls....
= who have seen a red flag uphill somewhere

professional sworn bears are facilitators of professional accumulaters

professional sworn bulls are facilitators of sellers in distress

=============

Guru Mysore: wow, @JS.. looks like you have done some psychology course .. :)

=============

: stock rich bulls are known to wear bear masks to crash prices to accumulate more at lower prices

: vice versa for cash rich, give-a-damn-to-stocks financers

: bulls as well as bears are mission masks for professionals and state of mind for amateurs like us

4. positional bears
= like the one I'm this week.lazy heavy trading animal who has seen the crack and loves the crackle of the crumble

5.scared street dogs and pigs
= for the trucks and slaughter houses

Bluff called Levels

Rajanji, don't support and resistance levels work because everyone is looking at them because everyone are taught that....?

These are not based on fundamentals or psychology.....I think.....they work because these are wide spread beliefs.....People believe in the channel theory, horizontal levels....which other than mass hysteria reasons is totally make believe working crap

There is a multi billion dollar consultancy, training, publishing, media, brokerage industry based on all this....

Otherwise, reason behind any level of any stock in the past cannot be the same months and years later.....what to talk of macro economy of the country and worldwide.....

It still works because sufficient people believe in this theory.....

Operators take advantage of it.....mercilessly, as per their convenience and necessity....

Newer and amateur traders are taught technicals to become unsuspecting victims.....

They play at technical level and get beaten on the tactical level...

That is why I believe that if someone trades like one plays video game he or she will make more money then with technicals....

A kid who doesn't know technicals can beat his technical father or mother hands down in trading.....in my opinion

Markets and market situations are always new.....and we play them with outdated reference points...

Reason why even the most sophisticated trading software can't guarantee profits without human intervention of high quality...

my dear operators!

self talk, 3:04pm, 29sep, cmp=7949spot

what do i want myself to do? keep running like a scared dog at every sound of fundamental?

why look at fundamentals when trading technical(+tactical)

and why look at technicals when trading (investing) fundamentals

"technicals know that the news is coming" - as they say

i don't think i am that fool to buy the theory that operators don't know the "news" beforehand!

now, stop that nautanki and do what u r dying to do, my dear operators!

alternate trading

(in reply to a query)

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=152809

dear chandrasekaranji,

very valid points. thanks for sharing.

i have given a lot of attention to these considerations in recent times. that is why i say that retail traders are playing on technical level and getting beaten at tactical level. 

i do not rely too much on technicals these days. 

one of my friend in a south indian city has a friend in a european stock exchange and is a top notch software professional. his job is to program and test and improve and manage the software for the top FIIs/ Banks which invest globally. his is quite a "secret" and "sensitive" job. he once told my friend that he comes to know whenever those big fat honchos are about to buy or sell en'mass. he told that they have all the info globally before hand. he told him that big men know it beforehand and make it happen for rest of the world. no amount of technical study can predict what those "doers" are going to do.

technicals are boys toys to self amuse. they do work but not sufficiently.

therefore, i have been working for the last several months to find ways to know DIRECTLY what the "operators" are going to do rather than "INDIRECTLY" trying to guess thru technicals what they are likely to do. 

i don't think that there can be more "scientific" way to do homework for trading! 

and trust me finding the shadow or fingerprints of operators is not impossible if you go all out with that focus. have found 2-3 and working to develop the details. 

regards

operator truths every trader should know

- in day trading or short-term trading 1-2% people make the other 98% play.

- they know things beforehand....amazing....but not for them...call it insider information or whatever.....they bloody know all the crucial info....in toto...!!!

- they have got super powerful computers, software and networks (highly guarded with access denied to outside the coterie). they have links and access inside not only one or two but all the principal companies of all sectors across countries across continents. afterall, the money is one only....you can trace the roots of almost all the money to a handful of banks and entities.

- they have got practically unlimited money at almost zero interest! (how about that facility)? actually, they are the insiders, everyone else on the planet is the outsider!

- they don't worry about developments and news. they know the developments and news beforehand. many of them, they shape themselves. those which they don't know or can't influence don't effect them much. do you think governments anywhere can take any decision which is contra to their interests?

- businesses are as much as for the profit from the manipulation of stocks than from the profit from the primary production and distribution.

- operators don't buy options, they only sell (write) them.

- they don't choose which options to sell. they sell any option and as many of them which retail traders are willing to buy. only thing they control is the premium. they put much higher premium in the direction they don't want to go. this way they control the volumes in a particular direction.

- operators don't decide on the time of squaring the option. that is decided by the retail operators who bought it. they square the option and as many of them which the retail operators wish to square off. again, the only thing operators control is the premium at the time of squaring off. they put higher premium on the side which gives less benefit to the retail operator.

- the money is made by the operator not at the end of the series but continuously and non-stop at every second of the trading day in every single trade....they keep making money drop by drop, second by second....it is a myth that operators make a killing in big shots.....they don't....they keep making money by bleeding non stop without much ado....just like rivers are formed by drop by drop melting of snow over vast stretches of glaciers.

- operators are there because retail traders are there and in that proportion. otherwise, operators would have been forced to work only as VCs (venture capitalists).

- operators control/move market in 4 ways
a) actively buying
b) actively selling
c) refusing to support buying
d) refusing to support selling

- when they want you to participate, they don't move the market fast. and when they don't want people to get on board and still want to change the levels/altitudes of the market, they move it very swiftly by controlling bid prices and accepted prices......obedient army of computer networks do that.

- it is extremely difficult and impractical for a retail trader to trader after considering all factors at play. they can't. even otherwise they will go mad doing that. they have to find a tactical and smart and clever indirect way.

- operators don't like smart, clever, stable, silent traders.

- never panic....fear switches off the mind which alone can take on the mighty operators.

- if you don't have your own knife and fork to trade, don't sit at the table.

news and effect

technicals don't worry about news. 

any "news" is inbuilt in the technicals. 

as they say "charts know that the news is coming."

what actually happens is 

that if the operators and big pockets are willing 

small news is magnified big time, 

and if they are less interested even big news fizzles out.

small news, small need = small or no effect

small news, big need = decent effect

big news, small need = small effect

big news, big need = big big effect

don't play their game

it is true that the trading challenge is very difficult indeed.

almost impossible but not impossible.

while "Trade with the operator robot not against him" sounds right i beg to differ.

working against or with the "robot" are actually similar things.

(i didn't say same but similar).

the "robots" (read operators) don't let anyone guess what they are going to do, how, how much and when.

at times, they themselves don't know.

their algorithms decide that on realtime info.

so, if you knew what they are going to do only then you can be "with" them.

but herein lies the paradox.

if you couldn't know how you went "against" them, how could you go "with" them?

or

if you can go "with" them, why did you not spot their game and avoid going "against" them.

whatever you do the robot will catch you on the wrong foot. 

fortunately, there is a silver lining (there always has to be)!

instead of worrying about being "with" or "against" them, just ensure one thing - 'don't play their game'

in other words - trade as if they were not there!

trade without reacting to them.

play "with" law of probability, law of averages.

don't let the market fluctuations dictate and skew your trading decisions.

stick to one or two or few principles, hold the hand of probability, go ahead and trade.

who can scare the trader who refuses to look in the eyes of the bully?

are you trading against a robo?

whether you know it or not
whether you see or feel or experience or spot it or not
you are!
you are mostly trading against a robo!
an algorithm
a super-software!!!


welcome to algorithmic trading!


also known as algo trading or blackbox trading or robo trading or automated trading.


what is this?


simple......a super software, a highly intelligent superfast calculative algorithm does trading for you
while you sip coffee, play golf or take a nap or just watch the screen.


almost totally automatic trading.


all trading decisions as to what to trade, when, how much, at what rate........everything is decided by the computer, the algorithm, the software.....without any human intervention!!!


just like "deep blue" or "deep thought" super computers played chess against Garry Kasparov.


the only difference.....chances are that you are not Garry!!!


rather, in this case, the Garrys have teamed up with Deep Blues + Deep Thoughts to play against...........


.......well you guessed it right......poor you!!!


major fii's, pension, mutual and hedge funds and others don't trade......they algo trade!!!


they sneak in or out big elephant or dinosaur orders in slices with computer precision and stealth.


this they do to manage and manipulate the market and leave almost no footprint by making sure big entries and withdrawals are almost unnoticed.


algo trading makes sure that you see minimu spikes and dips in volumes while mammoth trading takes place.


these algorithms are so powerful that they are programmed to calculate a hundred things and manage "the game" in such a way that they always win!


these algorithms are designed to initiate lightening fast action on dumping on buying shares on the basis of news received electronically.


e.g. before even before human bank management comes to know of an aberration in the liquidity, these algorithms see it coming (courtesy their computational power backed by the intelligent programs) and trigger the action.....even before others come to know of it and understand it!


this is known as 'high frequency trading' (HFT) and has dramatically changed the world of trading from inside!


couple this the astronaumical advantage with money power these giants have!


according to a top consultancy firm, 73% of all US equity trading volume is algo trading!!!


in some other markets, the % trade volume taken care of by algo trading is even higher!


some of the recent crashes and abnormal moves are alleged to be caused by algo trading......rare chances when the secret gets spilled out!


and we haven't yet talked about algo bugs - intended or accidental!!!


welcome to the world of algo trading! 


the robo is always waiting for you. he can't see you.....but he can definitely feel you


when you get squeezed gently by him!!!

fact of the matter is......

+600

+200

-300

-0

-600

+0

+300

-200

-0

+100

-100

-600

-100

+400

-400

-200

+500

+100

-100

-100

-300

+300 = june

given above are the net series-end to series-end nifty spot change values in last 22 months

few points worth noting

1. average net change in nifty=250

2. more than 400=6 times

3. zero to 100=9 times

4. 200-300=7 times

5. more than 600=none

6. options buyer don't have a chance. the small movement is enough to make any option premium unrecoverable except by writing. that too is risky and needs a precision strategy.

7. you can't predict the direction. by the time you know, it changes

8. you can't predict the extent of change, by the time you know, it ends.

9. the "game" is made for option writers and not for option buyers. in fact, only those option writers have a chance who have unlimited funding and smart auto-software.

10. you move, market kills you. only chance you have : you stay still, let market move.

11. if you make 33% of the 100% move of the market, you are a genious.

12. level of a genious is inversely proportional to the complexity of the strategy.

13. there are 9 of 22 times (41% approx) chance that you will not get any chance to make money (encashing the chance is another question altogether)

14. all big moves are unpredictable and hence uncatchable. doubt will freeze you or checkmate you.

15. options and futures are tools of the operators......bait to hook the fish.

all (non-operator) traders are playing on technical and fundamental levels

and getting beaten on tactical level.

in search of stockmarket lie detector

i was just surfing for apps for my android.

and i came across

"lie detector".

i checked for the details

and before i could press my grey cells,

i read that this was an app for prank only

and not a real lie detector.

well, well.....

but there are real lie detector gadgets and machines......

(ones they put to great use such as "sach ka saamna" etc.)

---

i wish they had a lie detector

to catch the bluffs and lies

of nifty moves

forced by operators.

---

while no such reliable lie detector has been invented as yet for the markets, i presume

(though some may be around for prank purpose)

for the time being

till one such is invented

it is suffice to assume

that there are some, if not many, and if not all

moves that are not just lies

but white lies!!!

---

just because we don't yet have a lie detector test for the markets

doesn't and shouldn't mean

that there are no lies floating around!

---

and if there ARE lies

why distrust our skills and sensitivities

at the time of 

stoploss triggers?

whats happening on the top floor?

one of the automobiles showroom in himachal
is 5 storeys high.
or should i say
5 storeys low!

the top floor is at the level of the road
while the all others are below road head.

this showroom is a masterpiece of sort
considering the topography it is located in.
amazingly, all floors are drive-in.

top two floors are showrooms
and bottom three are for service, repair etc.

when this was built
the architect had clearly told
not to park more than 8 SUVs
on the top floor.

each SUV has the weight of a monster
and the bottom pillars were designed to withstand
as much weight.

any more SUV on the top floor
could put the entire building at the risk.

but i noticed it many times
that due to space constraints
especially during festival seasons
safety norms were often thrown to winds
and much more monsters were accomodated on the top floor
than the stipulated limit.

the people on the four floors below the top floor
usually remained unaware of the dangerous situations.

they never ever had the hint
often that they were so close to a mishap.

they never had even a slight hint
that their safety had been often put at stake!

all the time
everyone on the lower floors
remained oblivious of the always lurking threat to their life.

since the pillars never gave way
and since festival seasons came and went away
and since nothing ever happened
the innocent guys down under
still don't know
what all threatened to happen but didn't.

for them life continues
ignorant of the real undercurrents!

--

same thing happens in stock markets.

stock market universe
is multi storeyed.

while policy makers, promotors, trading houses, brokerages etc. occupy the second from the top floors,

there is no doubt who occupies the top floor!

obviously, the fii's and the deep pockets.

also, there is no doubt about who occupies the bottom floor!
the poor retail traders!!!

the poor chaps never know
how their safety and financial life
is threatened day in and day out
by those on the top floor.

they never knew,
they don't still,
and will, probably never ever know
what financial burden is being put on the economy pillars they are standing
by those at the top.

the poor chaps will either never come to know
or will find themselves buried under collapse.

what they will never come to know is
that those on the top floor
ran out of the building
just before the collapse.