Friday, January 29, 2010

Bottom Switching Technique to profit even when u r stuck with bad long positions in a falling market

I have noticed that quite a few of fellow traders are stuck up in long positions in this severely falling market.

I can understand their feelings as I have gone thru this phase earlier. The fear of further slide must be creating panic waves in them.

For them, I share my technique here to reduce this pain.

I call this technique "Bottom Switching".

I have successfully used this technique many times in the past. However, to fully grasp the finer points. I request ur full attention and participation for clarifications, if any.

Pl note: this technique will not give you money profit (immediately) but will give you stock profit almost immediately, even in the falling market and even when u r stuck with bad long positions.

Before I share the technique, pl first read this article (which i posted recently):-

Title: gaining money v/s gaining stock

When u r in the market, u gain profit, and when u r out of the market u gain stocks. e.g. If u bought 1000 suzlon in 95 for Rs.95000/- and if it were to go up to 125 u gain Rs.30000/-. On the contrary if u can anticipate the fall and get out at 95, u could buy 1266 suzlon shares in the same Rs. 95000/- at CMP 75, thus earning 266 shares (26.6% return). So, if u r sitting on cash don't be in a tearing hurry to buy. because u are still gaining - stocks!!!

Now for the explanation of "Bottom Switching":

Suppose u opened long positions at Rs.100 in a stock A of sector S1 before the markets started falling from Nifty level 5280.

Lets say that stock has fallen 7% to 93 when the market has fallen 5% to 4850. Lets suppose the markets are likely to fall more (say 4550) and so will your stock A.

Obviously you have 2 options, first to stay fastened to the stock belt and go down with the sinking Submarine hoping to come up later in good times. this may get ur money stuck for medium to long term.....

Now here is the third option of "bottom Switching" =

Look for stock B or C or D or E...etc. from the same sector S1 which have fallen more in terms of percentage from the day u bought stock A. e.g. lets assume that stock B (which belongs to the same sector S1 to which stock A belongs), has fallen 12% from (say) 100 to 88 (rememeber, A fell 7% from 100 to 93 in the same period).

As per this "bottom Switching" technique, sell A at 93 and with that money buy B at 88. If u sell 1000 of A at 93, you can buy 1056 of B at 99 with same money, therby earning 5.6% even when the market is falling and even when u r stuck with bad long positions.

After this, u look for another stock out of C,D,E,F...etc. to do "Bottom Switching". Don't worry about fundamentals.

I did this switch from Maruti to Tata Motors last year when fundamentals of Tata Motors were very poor as compared to Maruti. I gained heaven's lot due to this "Bottom Switching".

This technique is based on technicals and not fundamentals. After a series of Bottom Switchings, u will end up gaining a huge percentage of stocks.

These will get converted into money as the market turns around. This way, you earn not just when the market is going up but also when market is going down (even when u r stuck in bad losing long positions).

All, u have to do is 1)change ur mental setup where u look only for money gain, to when stock gain is equally important. e.g. u leave home in the morning with 100 rs in your pocket and 100 shares in ur bag. Wouldn't it be equally profitable day if you come home with 100 rs and 115 (equivalent) shares!

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