when operators are bluffing and trapping retail trader masses they are also knowingly miss stepping themselves. they know they are wrong. just like in poker, a bluffer tactically goes the wrong way to trap and beat the right opponent in the end. but when a good trader feels that his well considered homework is seemingly going wrong, his fear and lack of confidence in his trading system and lack of backup strategy prevents him from even thinking about exploiting the bluff of the operator. almost all traders want 30 profit and 0 loss instead of 10 loss followed by 50 profit.
if you can spot and understand it, acknowledge the operator bluff, go with it with reduced trading size and be ready to exploit when the overstretched tide turns...
when GST was nowhere near passing, market used to rise a lot on every hope news and fall on every negative development, but when GST actually got passed nothing happened. it was dud
same thing happened when Rajan was to quit. markets were expected to slip gradually without him and his assurances. what happened. we saw the largest sudden up rallies of recent times
brexit brexit brexit they kept shouting for weeks and months. what happened after shock brexit? just small fall followed by an up rally. all hue and cry and nothing happened.
same thing going to happen IMO during and after US elections. markets may fall even if Hillary wins and markets may rally even if Trump wins. markets may rally before the results or may fall not rise after Hillary's win. it is all tactical mischievous stirring of muddy waters to catch trader fish. what would you do if you were Goldman Sachs or other shark chief manager?
we all forget all the discussions and logic after the event. we are sheep. they know that. we don't know. don't want to know.
I'm not saying become Don Quixote. all in saying is....we should run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. that's the best strategy to make money despite not being from the devil's camp.
whenever any event is approaching we should think oblique. listen to everything in media, understand the wind direction and guess the unthinkable. that's going to happen in all likelihood. politics isn't the only dirty game.
note down what everyone is saying about market and election results and compare that with what actually happens post results
markets aren't going to go through the roof of Hillary wins and all zillion dollar economies wonts commit suicide just because Trump wins. American president is not God. he is a puppet in the hands of money Gods. he is there care taker.
businessmen are smart guys. for them their business interests are supreme
EU isn't dead after brexit. neither will America post these election results.
anyone smart enough to win presidential elections is smart enough to run the world's biggest economy
if all operators are making our going to make ship loads of money courtesy Trump, Trump is their darling
no controversy, no opportunity to make huge money
weapons of mass destruction theory was very very business friendly. it resulted in gulf war resulting in tremendous boost to businesses and economies of super power and allies besides realignment of (their own) business friendly governments
if I were the operator I will have both Hillary and Trump on my payroll
they are poor chaps. bigger players are, like God, invisible
don't be befooled by all the drama going on. enjoy it. take it all worth a pinch of salt. don't get emotional. protect your money. get aligned to the dirty minds instead of getting ready to play victim again.
the thinkable happens less, unthinkable happens big in stock market...
by the way, this is exactly what happened during last lok sabha elections
we had a "Trump"everyone said don't elect don't elect don't elect
we had a Hillary also...
same thing happens in every election, in every country.... all the time
winning elections is a big big responsibility. after all, it is the contract of contracts.
traders shouldn't be emotional. they should be what they claim to be.
both Hillary and Trump are patriots. don't mess up your head. say no to be certified a fool.
all events are used by big pockets to milk the masses
stock markets are super daddy legal casinos and wealth generators of the ruling class
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