once there was a pigeon...

like many budding struggling traders, i used to be a pigeon who would flutter away at every and any small anti-trend clap.

all kind of brave talk used to fail miserably despite my best efforts.

over a period of time a series of chance system adjustments revealed how the bluff moves of price can be spotted/segregated.

till then i always used to book too soon out of fear of losing the illusive profit.

i can't explain how frustrated i was when i was unable to run long distance trends whenever there was one.

the fact that i, like majority struggling traders, was booking loss too late in the trades gone wrong, was adding salt to my wounds.

i can't express my satisfaction (wouldn't mind calling it happiness if it were not already not-a-big-thing-anymore) having crossed that choking waterfall of a challenge.

i'm on the other side now.

it was a small step of improvement but with giant consequences.

if u look at the corollary of this, u'll notice that this improvement in system also helped me dropping the wrong side fast enough and thus cutting losing trades sooner than later.

with passing time and practice, even the remaining fear will be gone (i am, like a typical "doodh ka jala", still looking for the ways my system will fail some day in a new way!!!).

but i'm reasonably sure that while the newer situations will keep arising, leading to sneezes and hiccups in my system, the hits will be smaller hopefully and i'll use even those instances to further improve my trading system.

taming the fear is at fairly advanced level.

the skin of my trading mind is quite thick by now.

=====

my next challenge was/is....scaling up.

i have said and written at various places in the last many years that i had decided not to trade REAL BIG size till i had developed the system fairly well...... till the system was fairly stabilized and had proved itself respectfully in various conditions and seasons.

my view always has been that jacking up the stakes and getting big returns never takes too much of time. but it doesn't happen till the "multiplication factor" system is in place.

otherwise, the buggy system is equally good in bleeding u real fast.

so, after having fairly stabilized the trading system, my next aim is to jack up the stakes. easier said than done.

it is like venturing into a new territory with many unknowns.

gradually working on this in steps these days. and at no point, without safety harness......

a system with a veto

amplified emotions are fractures in psychological strength of a trader....

don't be too sad - it will hurt ur ability to survive the difficult times, 

don't be too happy - it will have a bearing on ur ability to stay alert......

=============

have a target....no harm in that....but never be adamant. 

be flexible. go with the flow. 

i have a lot of opinions and targets and views. some are v strong. but i give veto power to the system. 

though my system and my views concur for good part, there are often divergence which are beyond my comprehension. 

in those times, i go my system way, often to be amazed!!!

=============

human trading is inseparable from emotions. 

emotions are subject to virus attacks. 

a pre-determined evolved trading system is too primitive to be effected by the emotions and hence fairly advanced in the market which doesn't know how to counter simplicity.....

the sheep lion

any trend in the world obeys this maxim....."trend ki jaan bahut mushqil se nikalti ha".....lemme share some examples...                      

: habits are nothing but trend....try changing a habit trend....it's v difficult                      

: relationships are trends.....try changing them....                      

: poverty, individual or that of a group, like country....                      

: a bad patch of a batsman...a dream run....                      

: winters.....summers......rains.....                      

: re-monetization after de-monetization is a trend.....                      

: corruption is a trend.....                      

: u can always safely bet along the trend......                      

: the decline of a crude oil prices will take as much time as was taken by it's rise!!!                      

: "bhed chaal" is good in trading but not "unanimity"                      

: hero honda (ouch....hero motocorp is riding on the splendor trend)....                      

: hillary clinton's "image""baggage" was a trend....                      

: modi wave was a trend.....a powerful one...all opposition leaders (shorters) are realizing it....

: obesity

: AAP was a trend which remained for a long time till it faded....                      

: ride waves and trends....be smart, a bit less brave......

======

anyone's trading results can dramatically change with just 2 steps......                      

: 1. reducing the trade size to the point of sound sleep despite adverse movement                      

: 2. go with the trend, almost like a dumb trader.....                      

======

little surprise that all intelligent guys and gals like engineers, doctors, CAs, bla bla are all shamed in stock market till they agree to be a sheep who has dropped all ambition to be a lion warrior. that sheep becomes the defacto lion, finally.

those who fear going with the trend should try gambling with v small amount pro the trend.....

4 stages/states of a trader

there are 4 stages/states of a trader

amateur amateur
the one in the market for fun, lottery, water testing

professional amateur
the one who finally decides to learn it properly

amateur professional
who is getting serious and better with time

professional professional
for whom trading is a profession now besides other things. he is a developed country in the trading world.

the road and the round about

a trend is a trend

it is a road and not a round about, well mostly.

but u can't know when (80% of the time) it is road and when (20% of the time, approx) it is a turn/round about.

this causes the number one and fundamental mistake traders world over succumb to and suffer from.

"distrust the trend; always fear the sudden end of it"

this is wrong...trend is a friend and not a foe looking for chances or devising ways to kill you.

it is all in your own head.

u take a trading position much bigger than ur peace of mind resulting in non-stop hallucinations that the trend is going to turn!

trend, whenever present, is blind and deaf.

it doesn't know ur position, only the position of the masses, which it is rarely against till atleast the pigs are fat enough to its liking.

trend can't see ur position nor can it hear ur pounding heartbeats.

it is not threatening u. u urself are full to the brim with fear.

u r ur no. 1 enemy.

congratulations, u urself are the pseudo-operator against the sheep "u"

u are so full of fear like a pigeon that even the mischievous shadow of the operator cat is enough to pack u flying...

a trader has to admit and understand that if he keeps applying a sensible simple system time after time after time, then he will correctly get the trend road 80% of the time and the round about for the rest.

the loss at the bends shouldn't scare you from recognizing, acknowledging and trusting the road.

ur first handicap is that u don't have some tool to identify a trend.

if u have one, u take too big a position.

if not, then even one loss is enough to freeze ur confidence for several days thereby making u fire in all directions in the dark while being blind-folded.

on the contrary, if u keep trusting the trend and keep taking the trade IN THE DIRECTION of the trend, then u will be stabbed in the back only 2 to 3 (or max 4) times (on an average) out of 10, approximately.

those who don't trust, go crazy...

they can't take the market from levels to levels without trends. trens have got to be there and will always be there albeit with every effort to be there sans u.

how to decide stop loss

i am always surprised to see the whole world decide trade on the basis of mango and stop loss on the basis of grapes.

stop loss should be in the same currency in which the trade was taken.

i.e. if a bullish trade was taken based on a signal from bullish divergence of rsi, then stop loss of that trade should be the point when that bullish divergence is threatened or no more valid.

similarly, if a trade is taken on the basis of a pattern, then stop loss is that level where that pattern no more holds good.

to take another example, a trade taken on the basis of nifty level should have a stop loss where that level is broken.

taking stop loss on the basis of nifty level while taking the trade on the basis of a technical indicator or level is wrong, imo.

also, tick size on the chart should be considered before deciding whether the stop loss is taken or still stands. e.g. if u r monitoring a chart with 5 min tick size, u shouldn't take the SL as hit till the chart marking after that 5min window is actually beyond that SL. that much of risk is to be taken, technically.

there is a good chance that if the stop loss is say 8180 spot on a 5 min chart, nifty may go down till 8168 (say) and jump back to above 8180 before that 5min window.

system, risk management and psychology in trading

[11/14, 9:10 PM] @ashokji:

If trading is
15% system
15% risk management
70% psychology
Why do most traders spend 99% of their time on developing systems?

[11/14, 9:29 PM] Js:

because psychology and risk management are steering and brakes which though critical won't move the car without the engine of system. while psychology can be tamed with enlightenment, and risk management with practice of rules, it is system which is the most tricky part. while risk management and psychology are defensive measures, system forms the basis of the offensive IMO. I'm not sure about the percentages you have quoted above, but the breakup applies more to the stage when you have broadly figured out the system. because it is then that the slippery oily psychology prevents the implementation of the system and hence consuming 70 percent of the effort. having said that, 99 percent is bit too high and indicates the state of mind of a trader who is trying to compensate lack of risk management and weak psychology with a non existent super system....

: I got my risk management sorted out first of all, and psychology thereafter. but despite risk and psychology in place, the search for the least inefficient, most adaptive, best fit, advanced yet simple practical system out of hundreds possible has taken real long. it's like painstakingly searching for the right key out of a bunch of hundreds.

: every system is notorious to flatter to deceive though only after prolonged testing. the Edison in every budding trader is generally cursed to try a hundred ways before succeeding in making his bulb.

: every system has some limitations which can be taken care of by the risk management and psychology...

: your question was stimulating. thanks

self talk

[11/7, 3:43 PM] : if a trader is sure of 70% accuracy of his or her system/method......i.e. his/her trade will be right approx. 7 out of 10 times (or wrong 3 out of 10 times), and, if he/she has the courage and money management to easily withstand in the rare even of all those 3 failures coming consecutively, then the trader can easily afford to be fearless.nobody can stop him or her from ultimate trading success....

[11/7, 5:27 PM] : the most difficult thing in trading is not analyzing the situation, but accepting what comes out in the analysis followed by actually pulling the trigger. profitable trades often start in total dark...

the other dirty game

when operators are bluffing and trapping retail trader masses they are also knowingly miss stepping themselves. they know they are wrong. just like in poker, a bluffer tactically goes the wrong way to trap and beat the right opponent in the end. but when a good trader feels that his well considered homework is seemingly going wrong, his fear and lack of confidence in his trading system and lack of backup strategy prevents him from even thinking about exploiting the bluff of the operator. almost all traders want 30 profit and 0 loss instead of 10 loss followed by 50 profit.

if you can spot and understand it, acknowledge the operator bluff, go with it with reduced trading size and be ready to exploit when the overstretched tide turns...

when GST was nowhere near passing, market used to rise a lot on every hope news and fall on every negative development, but when GST actually got passed nothing happened. it was dud

same thing happened when Rajan was to quit. markets were expected to slip gradually without him and his assurances. what happened. we saw the largest sudden up rallies of recent times

brexit brexit brexit they kept shouting for weeks and months. what happened after shock brexit? just small fall followed by an up rally. all hue and cry and nothing happened.

same thing going to happen IMO during and after US elections. markets may fall even if Hillary wins and markets may rally even if Trump wins. markets may rally before the results or may fall not rise after Hillary's win. it is all tactical mischievous stirring of muddy waters to catch trader fish. what would you do if you were Goldman Sachs or other shark chief manager?

we all forget all the discussions and logic after the event. we are sheep. they know that. we don't know. don't want to know.

I'm not saying become Don Quixote. all in saying is....we should run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. that's the best strategy to make money despite not being from the devil's camp.

whenever any event is approaching we should think oblique. listen to everything in media, understand the wind direction and guess the unthinkable. that's going to happen in all likelihood. politics isn't the only dirty game.

note down what everyone is saying about market and election results and compare that with what actually happens post results

markets aren't going to go through the roof of Hillary wins and all zillion dollar economies wonts commit suicide just because Trump wins. American president is not God. he is a puppet in the hands of money Gods. he is there care taker.

businessmen are smart guys. for them their business interests are supreme

EU isn't dead after brexit. neither will America post these election results.

anyone smart enough to win presidential elections is smart enough to run the world's biggest economy

if all operators are making our going to make ship loads of money courtesy Trump, Trump is their darling

no controversy, no opportunity to make huge money

weapons of mass destruction theory was very very business friendly. it resulted in gulf war resulting in tremendous boost to businesses and economies of super power and allies besides realignment of (their own) business friendly governments

if I were the operator I will have both Hillary and Trump on my payroll

they are poor chaps. bigger players are, like God, invisible

don't be befooled by all the drama going on. enjoy it. take it all worth a pinch of salt. don't get emotional. protect your money. get aligned to the dirty minds instead of getting ready to play victim again.

the thinkable happens less, unthinkable happens big in stock market...

by the way, this is exactly what happened during last lok sabha elections

we had a "Trump"everyone said don't elect don't elect don't elect

we had a Hillary also...

same thing happens in every election, in every country.... all the time

winning elections is a big big responsibility. after all, it is the contract of contracts.

traders shouldn't be emotional. they should be what they claim to be.

both Hillary and Trump are patriots. don't mess up your head. say no to be certified a fool.

all events are used by big pockets to milk the masses

stock markets are super daddy legal casinos and wealth generators of the ruling class

myths and misconceptions about Elliott waves theory

1. Elliott waves in modern trading environment is very different from the stock market realities just before or after the second world war, 8 decades ago. though the underlying logic is same, the rules and application have gone sea change. it now pertains less to retail trader's or investor's motive and psychology and more to the behavior induced by the stronger minority hands into the weak majority to get their way with the final aim of trapping and beating them. it is more of a dodging tactic today for profitable stealth accumulation distribution strategy.

2. contrary to the prevalent understanding, Elliott Wave is not always present. neither it should obviously be expected. be it retail traders' herd behavior or operator tactics, Elliott waves emerge when there is time for it. during tight ranges these are either not there or highly deformed to be identified or fairly called Elliott waves, at least from any practical utility pov. otherwise any lines looked through Smirnoff for sufficiently long time will start resembling like a perfect Elliott Wave.

3. Elliott waves don't exist in total isolation. they are best visible from a particular lens of particular time chart. eg. the wave visible in 5 day chart is part of the one in 1 month chart which further is part of 1 year chart and so on. to understand the destination of a particular wave, look at its father wave. therefore, if you don't see the wave in one time frame, adjust the time focus and look at a shorter or bigger time frame chart. when elliot wave is absent from the short term/swing/positional chart, it is still visible intermittently in intraday chart.

4. it is a myth that the 3rd wave has to be the longest.

5. it is a myth that wave 4 can't enter territory of wave 2.

6. it is a myth that wave 5 has to rise to the highest point.

7. Elliott Wave is less well defined in stocks than in indices as the latter are averages, besides other reasons.

ashokji: Js ji that means anything can become defunct anytime... whatever strategy we build can be defunct anytime... so keep changing .... It's not an easy job, we have not come up with even one perfect one ...so forget about another in my life time....

js: absolutely. every strategy and till is evolving beyond recognition. we have to change. keep evolving, keep adapting. it is painful if possible. but that's how it is. one reason everyone is still a victim after decades.

struggle for survival. survival of the fittest. operators hate fully trained. they just want literate.

amit: Js ji here does it means that Jo retailers ko dikhta hai according to Elliot me vo hota ni hai.I mean the one which looks obvious doesn't happen and the operators take this as a beating tool for trapping retailers.And what happens is quite unexpected but with in the logic of Elliot theory.am I right js ji.

js: it is a game of cat and mice. cats don't want mice to become cats. it's not Tom and Jerry where mice wins

: partially yes. they can't accumulate distribute without Elliott reality. but the dodging requirement results in a thousand forms of waves while we are still stuck with 8 decade old Elliott measuring tape around our tailor necks

: over the coming weeks I will try to practically show you

8. you can't trade every situation with Elliott Wave. only reasonable trending ones.

9. larger the trader base and more developing the economy better the Elliott Wave works. it used to with great in US in early 19th century. no more. look at their chart patterns and that of day UK.... markedly different than those of India.

10. if you don't find a full Elliott Wave despite your best efforts post training, stop looking. there isn't any in that situation.

11. you can't accurately mark Elliott Wave points without the help of other indicators

12. there are trades beyond Elliott waves

13. Elliott waves is a knife very effective to cut through small and medium trends. they are almost indispensable. but in trading feast you also need forks and spoons.

zen and art of stock trading

chest thumping ability to say that i was wrong is a critical ability u must possess to have any chance to be a successful trader in a v difficult treacherous arena like stock market.

u must trample ur own ego under ur own hard shoes.

your views about a particular trading situation may not be right, but it does give u a point of reference to remain emotionally stable a bit longer.

and a point of reference to improve upon.....

trading is a mind game played online by worldwide grown up children!!!

controlled by a few grown up adults....

u have to repeatedly attempt to try and understand something in the hope that one day u will learn to survive the abuse.

u may still be often beaten by the operator even after years of cuts and bruises, but u r no more the same person....unless u unfortunately are....

in trading, u must have a view about every situation....that is free but priceless practice. provided u keep pushing wedge base under it slice by slice.

what if your perspective, out of 10 times, is first right 3 times, then 5, then 6,7...

fearing to take a position (even if in one's own mind) just out of fear being wrong is strengthening those chains of fear making oneself more emotionally tender and increasingly unfit to be a trader.

the problem is we start measuring our growth too early and too much in terms of money we make. the focus is too much on the results right from day one instead of on the process......like a parent expecting paycheques from his/her new born.

stock trading is the most rewarding self-MBA where-in u should willingly invest time effort money blood seat and tears!!! the joy it gives is the purest and the best!!!

near, yet far!!!

there are 4 phases of market:

1. near dead heartbeat volatility
= fails, suffocates and frustrates any and every method.

2. range bound (but alive)
= boring and ultimately makes either makes u impatient or doze off just before the take off time

3. trending
= those rare sunny days when u can play. alas, u blunder, courtesy hangover of above two phases or the next one.

4. giant trend
= unbelievable, without warning, ridiculous, one way sudden move which catches u unawares. u r too late, shaken and unsure when u finally enter. what i gain is peanuts in front of what u miss. when the tide is gone, u propel ur arms but there is no sea to swim by then!

a trader who can find a way to not only identify (to whatever extent possible) the above phases (or atleast devise a way to reasonably profit while incurring minimum unavoidable damages) can only hope to make some money consistently.

add to this the dilemma that of having a technical (or other) template to predict the turning points of the trend reasonably accurately, that u begin to realize the enormity of the seemingly sweet butch game called trading.

add to all this, the deliberate illogical games operators play

and the inherent uncertainties of the global events!!!

the earlier u accept the reality, the better......

quite a few of my hair have turned silver trying to crack the code and weave it into a practical compromise strategy......

how near am I !

yet how far!!!

if u see the 4 phases i mentioned above and multiply it with the uncertainty gaming factor, u realize that u r playing 5 in 1 games which are being randomly switched!!!

don't bother about the news

imo, technical traders should be purists.

they shouldn't bother about fundamentals or news.

any news or development that doesn't go with the trend/contour predicted by advance technical analyses is likely to be dampened and nullified thus giving chance to the technical and tactical trader another (artificial) opportunity to trade to profit.

an eye on a forthcoming news is the max a purist trechnical trader should keep. that's all.

predicting which way the event unfurls is not that important (it is anyway impossible to predict the outcome except with insider's information). what's actually important is having a tactical trade setup (with a plan to profit from whichever way the market moves after or during the event).

how many times have we seen market go big up and then big down after the completion of the event such as end of budget speech or fed/rbi rate cut or increase?

prices are sniffer dogs of fundamental masters.....they have the insider information of the approaching fundamentals.

any "disturbing" news or fundamental doesn't survive for long. operators can't stop news, but they can more than absorb them.....worse, they use them

events are known beforehand to the powers which are.

and the shadow of their intentions are clear on the charts/indicators/signs. any drama courtesy event/news (foreseen/unforeseen) is not much different from crocodile tears.

gulp it all with a pinch of salt.

and don't forget to say "thank you". good traders should be masters of mannerisms and etiquette, especially when in profit.

in sync

[26/04 11:01 am] ‪SD‬: what is your view on may, Js sir?

[26/04 11:03 am] Js: 66pc bullish😌

it's less to do with monthly expectation than being in sync with swings.

the pastry in the fridge

do you open your trading shop by touching the ground with right hand and then touching your forehead of consciousness? do you start your trading day with a short heartfelt prayer? or, you open the day like the fridge in the morning popping yesterday's pastry amidst unbrushed teeth? it all effects your subconscious, your subconscious decides your decisions and your decisions decide your future.

it is difficult to take wrong impulsive trading decisions if you have said your prayer and carry that feeling through the day

if trading is your destiny handed over  to you by chance choice or force by the God, accept it with thanks and do it sincerely

the trading rat

as a trading rat, you don't try to win over the whole  market mountain. you just look for your safe hidden hole with cheese supply and enjoy your life!!!

the ripened mango

one of my dear friends asked me yesterday why I was not/had not switched over to full time trading and quit my job. 

besides the minor reason that I'm a purely positional trader in index which requires just 3 to 4 times one eyed cursory glance at the charts and parameters per day, the major answer (as it came out from somewhere inside me ) is that you never leave the job and become full time trader....it just happens. 

it can't and shouldn't be done. it has to happen. like the dropping of a ripened mango. no effort required. no anxiety. not much thought. 

like the leaving behind of a baggage which is no longer required. 

never leave anything. what deserves to be left, gets left one night without goodbye. 

in fact, leaving is more of an analogue process than digital. 

things are being left behind gradually and incrementally every day, every moment. 

humans are used to events, life is a process.

the real bluff...

i am, frankly and genuinely though, v uncomfortable with this spike (today and yesterday).

long long ago, i used to divide rises of three types.....climbs, spike, shift...depending upon the angle of rise and the magnitude.

while climbs were reasonably stable, spikes were fragile and shifts (vertical ones) were rock solid. i even wrote an article on it*.

current one seems like a shift. options data also bullish. but the down rally was just half over. i was and am perplexed. but i, fortunately, always kept room for surprises/adjustments in my system.

there was no real surprise worth its salt in the past many months since i am on this version of the system, as u are witness to, but this one is.....going by the sheer magnitude and the time it took.

this may well turn out to be a non-event bluff in line with what i was expecting till noon today (49% down rally was left) but if may well turn out to be one of those occasional "re-calibration" "real bluffs".......





*http://thebestbusinessintheworld.blogspot.in/2010/02/climb-spike-and-shift-day-trading.html

the proof

left upto retail traders market can never remain in a tight range.

markets will always drift (and often stupidly, wildly, illogically, uncontrollably) if the direction and magnitude were to be decided by retail traders.

a tight range and anything and everything else is "allowed" or "ensured" by the operators IMO.

.....the mere presence of tight range (and for that matter many more interesting patterns) is a stark proof that operators exist and control the market.

4 types of learning paths

there are 4 types of learning paths for new traders:

1. large seed money (which they bring and use for trading while learning), (and stay) in the market for large enough period of time

= this category is invalid, doesn't happen like this unless u a genious / prodigy

2. large seed money, in the market for small period of time

= obviously, u would have been badly hit and out of the market, more or less (with a wounded ego and torn pocket)

3. small seed money, in the market for small period of time

= u are wasting time by being too shy/nervous/unsure/fearful/playing it safe. u probably don't have a method or the one which is too primitive or a mere-eyewash or not sticking to it. u may still be surviving, returning to (horse) trade occasionally but u don't have a great trading future ahead. u are likely to burn out / pissed off soon. no future in the market for the cowardly / overtly cautious / timid / indecisive traders. u are sure to fall in the gap between the two hills if u don't leap decisively from the first one towards the one ahead with some above-threshold energy/momentum.

"playing for a draw is the surest way to lose" - anatoly karpov

4. small seed money, in the market for long time

= u r destined to be successful. ponder seriously if u still haven't.

since u have been in the trading arena since long despite not betting large amounts (and hence having patience and remaining satisfied with small profits as well as small 'non-fatal' losses "till u have cracked the code"), it is enough hint that u have been through the journey awake and cautious. it is strongly indicative that u were deliberately up to something. serious observation, experimentation and learning is strongly evident.

after the 4th step, u should (rather, u would be, automatically) increasing the seed money and will be in the market practically forever, assured of a place in the "hall of non-famous but totally satisfied very successful traders"

observing investor psychology

Q: What was R. N. Elliott looking for in the stock market data in the late 1930s? Did he have a model or theory about price behavior?

Bob Prechter: Elliott had no basic premises, just a mind that was open to the idea that the market might be patterned, which he may have adopted from the then relatively new Dow Theory, which was a set of very few and far more general observations about market behavior. Though the Dow Theorists formed only very rough concepts, they broke ground, tremendous ground, in merely coming up with their observations that market behavior was non-random and tied to investor psychology. That was probably the germ of the idea that kicked off Elliott's research.

Q: What was his procedure?

Bob Prechter: He did what every good researcher must do. First, he recorded the data that reality provided. He looked at the movements on chart paper and wondered, "Can I find forms that occur over and over again?" His answer was, "Yes." He found that they occurred on hourly moves, daily moves, weekly, yearly. He even plotted moves that were decades long and noticed that they were following the same form. Likewise, the specific market did not matter. It could be the stock market, the gold price, interest rates or any other market. Then he organized the data, which was his talent. He began recognizing recurrences in the data, so it became clear that there were indeed repetitive patterns, which he ultimately organized into concepts

========================

Wonderful and Frank opinion above by Bob, the proponent of fractals in trading, about Elliot. What really made me feel good in this para is the sheer honesty.

And we must remember that discoveries of methods and theories and technicals didn't just happen in the last century.newer ones are being created and formed and spotted even today. They may or may not be shared openly.May be closely guarded in circles.steel it is about astronomical money.none shares intelligence of this significance.mass traders are trading with rotten, fossilized, outdated, ineffective technicals IMO. Fresh thinking is so so important. Also, I don't think anyone shared rsi or Elliot or Dow theory or turtle theory details that early and that easily and in that detail even then when those were discovered.

unusable wisdom

"Significance of Trend-line is function of its length, number of times it has been tested (touched) and the angle of ascent of descent."

my view =

but nobody tells you that you won't come to know how much is too much and after how many bluffs the so called range or trend line will break.

so this "wisdom" is un usable and is a mere witchcraft for witch hunting.

I've seen innumerable sheeps getting slaughtered in this maze.

Levels and trendlines are highly subjective.

Everyone has one unique. All those add to the uncertainty nervousness of an already shaky trader.

Stop loss concept has its roots in levels and trend lines, and hence form favourite baits of operators.

the language of candle sticks

"candlesticks give greatest emphasis on the opening and closing prices of trading range."

my view = absolutely. No other technical does that.

I once wanted to do my kind of PhD in candles but by that time I was already committed to RSI and that needed commitment.I had realised that there is much more to candles than just cramming shooting and morning stars etc.

I've seen whole world just doing that only. None has gone beyond the already shared known patterns. None has tried to actually learn the "language" of candles.

I strongly believe that candle sticks are the symbolic videography of any moving data. We have to get so used to candle sticks like the ancient Japanese that we can extrapolate the candle train.

Learning just a dozen or so patterns is like learning just Sayonara's and Asta la Vista's and not the actual language, thus missing the whole message and getting it often wrong and paying the price.

trader's drama

One important quote about trading comes from trading psychology expert Mark Douglas. As he points out, most of us are not as willing to take financial risks as we think:

"Most people like to think of themselves as risk takers, but what they really want is a guaranteed outcome with some momentary suspense to make them feel as if the outcome had been in doubt. The momentary suspense adds the thrill factor necessary to keep our lives from getting too boring."

Worth reading repeatedly till it compels us to change something.......
Sums up amazingly the psychology of most "traders"

bitter truth

everything in the market is predeterminded and cooked in the short to medium time frame. any untoward unforeseen event is reacted to but soon dissolved and nullified if against the original route map of the operators

they never say "no"

DM : Even call writers feeling heat now in this rally....

Js : imo operators are 95% writers. they never feel the heat wherever the market goes. they write all strike prices unconditionally. they just charge (much) more premium for the strike prices where they are planning to take the market or expect it to go. they are great shopkeepers. they never say no to write any strike price, any kind of option when someone asks for or is willing to buy. options spread anaylses should be done with this in mind.

the non-believers

no doubt the markets (in this nervous but sharp up rally) may soon fall.....

no doubt their may be macro dark clouds gathering around.....

but the rain may not start for quite a few days. till then what to do?

surrender meekly for the (reversal) trouble which hasn't come as yet and which may still be as far away as next week?

staying on course till the red light is what is the essence of positional/swing trading. otherwise, reversal fear starts the moment the last reversal happened.

we start fearing the longs the moment down rally ends.

distrust is in the blood of every am-trader which needs to be filtered out with the kidneys of guts and sense. otherwise, a trader will only remain spinning and keep bleeding.

if the markets start falling now, i bet many will again start disbelieving it soon and will start "waiting" for the "reversal" again, waiting to "go" long.

the markets are not unbelievable. we are non-believers.

power of observation

if you somehow stand through 100 surgeries, I bet you will become some sort of a dependable assistant surgeon yourself whatever be your qualification or background. 

.....such is the power of observation. 

The same is true about trading. 

If you stand through 100 swings or trades you can surely become a decent trader with decent results. 

The trouble is we go through 100s and 1000s of trade surgeries but not as an observer but as a patient with mind under anesthesia.....

restless elephants of the market

one reason why, at times, operators take time to move the market and keep it range bound, besides dodging tactics, is that they need time to offload or accumulate large quantities within a range of price.

their situation is not like ours that place order for a few lots, get the order executed and we are done.

...but much bigger (at times mind-boggling) numbers.

imagine u having to take longs in 10000 nifty lots within a range of 20 points before letting the market move - without creating panic or furor, without disturbing the law and order of the market, without dropping even a hint, without disturbing the price.

........u will sweat at the challenge.

........no doubt, computers help u do that, but u need deep pockets to douse threatening fires, to keep the restless elephants patient.......

pilotless!!!

Js: dear V, I'm sure u don't leave ur shop open and unattended when u go elsewhere including trading. then why leave trades unattended while u manage shop!

Pl don't take trades casually or lightly. such approach has ruined many just like traditional businessmen who didn't take their business with discipline and seriousness.

generally I don't interfere in personal trading approach of others. but being a friend and well wisher I couldn't ignore ur message. u r talented and gifted as I have seen in the past. Pl take a break and come back 100pc.

dear Dev, since u ur self seem aware that u might be erring somewhere u r out of danger and on the edge of liberation from that issue . as osho says...Being aware about a crippling fact is itself half the liberation from it.

I also strongly believe in the maxim...."nobody is coming".....One has to save himself.

trading is not a pub we go to to drown our sorrows to seek cheap temporary thrill. trading is serious business.....self talk

saraswati, lakshmi, kuber. ....all there

Murliji: I recall my initial days of day trading in 2009. After placing orders without SL, used to go for official meetings for 2-3 hours. Now I realise how suicidal, it used to be. A pilot leaving cockpit for 2-3 hours and the plane will certainly crash. Now I don't trade unless google finance is available and proper SL is placed.

Js: If only our spouses or parents or children or friends circle knew what and how we are doing.....I'm sure we won't trade again the way we do.....self talk.there is a he'll lot of adhocism, casualness, gambling in our approach to trading....self talk

A pilot leaving cockpit for 2-3 hours and the plane will certainly crash......I like it Murliji

Murliji: Trading is definitely a serious business. Casual approach need to be avoided. Unfortunately we pass through that stage and realise at a later stage. Then we wish "koi lauta de mere beete hue din"

Js: It's ok to leave the cockpit for a few hours during trans continental positional flights but in day trading battle zone....no way

Stay at the wicket, have a heart

dear friends, i want to share a very important thing....a learning for me...a lesson.....

here is it...

someone might recall that on 2nd feb i was still long (around 7550spot) as i had not got the down rally signal and the rally, as per me, was 95% approx done)......

just then the market fell sharply around 100 points and i had to forego some of the profit of the remaining long lots

at that time, i prematurely (under pressure and shaken by the sudden fall) turned short at around 7400 approx...

at that time anyone could have said that i missed the meat of the downfall (more than 100 points missed!)......even i, for once thought that way.....

but i found the downside rally signal only above 7400 and added shorts at 7475 spot.....

despite losing heart at missing that 100 plus point drop on 2nd.....i still garnered 500plus points in next 4 days in the subsequent rally......

my point is, that despite a big adverse shock of some 100-150 points, still i won the game for myself......thereby giving me the lesson that just because u have lost seemingly big thing doesn't mean nothing is left.....in the larger picture that big thing may be quite small.....be in the game.....

lemme illustrate with two self explanatory graphs

this is what the situation looked like after 2nd evening......it was natural to feel damn bad and lose heart.......

ashokji: That is were I got confused Js ji..I was long too...turning back to 7475 was deceptive......

Js: and this what it looks like today EoD

moral and lesson of the story.....if u stay at the wicket and overcome a close call.....u can still hit a century or double......

when u r worried at a situation, always remember u will be pleasantly shocked from a distant view/angle.....

had i refused to short after that nasty fall of 2nd feb, thinking that meat of the fall is over and i have missed it, gues what would have i missed!!!

this is one of the reason why i shorted near closing today as well after i found myself left with just 1 bullet in my revolver.....with battle just less than half over

who knows what the graph may look like in 1-2 days!!!

sonti: Js ji, tomorrow also gap down?

Js: don't know.....but what if it does? "am i placed right for it" was the question before me.....when i know that the rally is far from over, i am assured that i will get back my today's bet within a few days even if it were to shoot up tomorrow.......when it is draw-win situation, why shouldn't a trader take that sitter!!!

sgx is already indicating 6918......

it may or may not sustain....but that is not the point....the point is buying a heater in mid summer may look cool but is not positive trading.......

operators are mavericks and only maverick traders can be spared the bullet....self talk

and trader masses are still not crying....and begging will still be left....

1022‬: श्री जगमोहनजी , कितने सुन्दर ढंग और तर्क के साथ आपने बात को रखा है। जो कि एकदम सही है। एक 100 पॉइंट की गलती 500 पॉइंट का सही कदम दिखा सकती है। गज़ब

Js: शुक्रिया विष्णु जी....

william % r is not down but buried!!! it will need some external help to come out before standing!!!

any extreme value of rsi, william is not a natural rebound especially when it is in that value range since some time.....

: 90% plus william that too pro-trend is a falling sword (not just a falling knife).....

: besides william is a dog alone...and with rsi it becomes a wolf.......

: look at rsi on 1 month chart...it is 2.18

: that's hell....from where it takes time to return

: as is often said.....most of the rallies happen in oversold and overbought zone.....

: sgx is now recovering.....but that's again not the point...morning is another day

: everyone knows that rebound is around the corner....and that's precisely the reason why it is not...imo

: it's a GAME!!!

: it will rebound....but without the majority......

: treachery is the word...

: operators are extremists....no extremes are too much for them.....

the logic of buying "costly" stocks

when u r sinking....where do u put ur dry cookies? 

in the container which has already sunk or in the one that is still dry? 

.....so, by this logic i keep buying/adding those stocks on every nifty decline which are not falling or have fallen much less....

earlier i used to buy the stock which was available much cheaper than earlier....the one which has fallen the most....instead of those which were still relatively dearer.....

head of the trader

also, i have realized one thing....it is not the speed of your internet, the number of terminals u have, or the configuration of the terminals, or the books on your shelves or the ambience of your trading room or the broker pedigree you keep etc that decides your success in trading.

.....far from it, it is your system, discipline and money management (safeguarding) that is the decisive thing.

just like it is not just the camera (and certainly not beyond basic specs) which decides the quality of the shot

Head of the photographer is more important than his camera. (Philippe Halsman)

same is true about the trader and his trade

why not all in one go?

Murliji: Dear JS. Just out of curiosity. You are fully confident of your system developed after years of hard work. Why book profit in few or some lots bullets. Why not at one go once you get trend reversal or end of rally feelers.

Js: excellent question Murliji. lemme give an example to justify partial booking. my system is reasonably confident of going from say 1000 to 2000.but markets are unpredictable in the route they take. they may go like 1000 to 1250 to 1075 to 1389 to 1215 to 1666 to 1444 to 1701 to 1506 to 1888 to 1666 to 2100.....why not milk all folds and pull backs.

: besides, nerves stay cool

: my system hints the direction and extent of rally but not the exact path, zig zag or straight. so I moulded and designed my system to comply with this uncertainty and unpredictability. my system is probabilistic wonder with deterministic handicap.

: the market had gone my expected direction and extent but I was never sure of the speed and exact route

: I can never be. none except operators can be

: I guess even operators ate not sure about exact path they will be taking. its something like a chess game. so many permutations combinations are the. even a single unexpected move or happening may force or lure operators to alter the course.

: for example, my system is telling me rally only half over, and that we are in sell on rise, and that some relief really is inevitable, and that relief really has to come stealthily, and that everyone is waiting for it etc etc. ...but when and how system doesn't tell me. I can only align and be ready and keep milking till then besides keeping plan b,c,d ready

bro, what exactly do u want?

200 points up in 2 hours, approaching budget and still operators managing to instill sufficient fear in the minds of the traders regarding whether to enter or not.

...whether it is poised to fall now.

....amazing operator game.

....simply amazing.

...brazen animal instincts at play.

...sheep, hounds and the lions....self talk

the masses crave for longs during bear rallies.

....operators succumb to their demand a bit too late  and by the time they actually allow the longs, the masses start craving for shorts!!! 

....what a dilemma.

.....masses never get what they want.

...always remain cribbing.

...victims of fear and uncertainty.

....operators use this so well

every trader should ask himself during introspection times "bhai, tuu chahta kya hai?" (bro, what exactly do u want?"

"no" to "free" trade

js : trading is a business because it is the business of the businesses

if you can survive part time you can survive full time for sure. vice versa is doubtful.

if you don't have the key, opening a lock is the toughest business. if you have the key, it is the easiest. that's why I always say spend time and energy finding your key

 even a small tea stall can support a life. trading surely can. you need tech of trade, capital, trading character and commitment. commitment atleast as much as that tea vendor's.

the trouble is masses take trading as part time gambling with a respectable name. I don't mind if they are totally missing its business potential. this is much cleaner than the businesses

--

rajan : what i fear the most is that many wanna be traders may get motivated and start trading full time , giving up there jobs (how so ever small it might be).

Earning from trading is one of the most difficult things-Believe me.

It is emotionally , physiologically, and if you do not have the vantage position then financially draining.

I am really sorry to be a spoil sport but i am concerned about many traders here who may jump to trading as profession without really knowing the tricks of the trade.

--

js : I totally agree. that's the reason why I didn't switch to date. I have my own criterion of when I'll allow myself to go full time

--

rajan : i can count many traders who were good in trading , going broke.. when big fund house can go broke , who have every infomation and technology at there disposal, ;a small traders plight can be well gauged

--

js : criterion 1.....18 months of buffer funds...... 2. already 3 months of consecutively making double what I'm earning today...... 3. when I'm damn sure about the system's consistency in varying situations

: but having said that, improving and improving to the extent of consistent excellent returns does lead you to the inevitable objective of going full time. that should be the logical end. but I totally agree that no one should kick stable income source till trading is yielding much more since long

: I never wish to instigate anyone to go pro trader. just like I won't instigate anyone to fly an aircraft without training. but that should be final aim. no shortcuts.

: if you don't aim, you will never reach. your approach will always be adhoc. like a stock market daily wager. like the habitual single digit lottery buyer of every evening

: also, anyone not intending to be full time trader shouldn't be a part time as well. he better be an investor or go mutual fund route or other asset class.

: Rajanji's warning is true and timely. it is a reality check. a spanner in brakeless wheels. perhaps, full time trading is not for everyone. and hence shouldn't be discussed recklessly openly least some hapless unsuspecting guy falls pray to day dreaming. trading surely is damn difficult to mastered. no doubt. and can be the shortest cut to disaster in life. and we have families to support.

: but those who are serious and disciplined enough should either marry trading sooner or later or stop flirting

: I think we all remember bicycle of our childhood with two support rods on both sides rear with small wheels at the end. these prevented us from falling. we removed them when those were not touched in our normal riding after days of practice. when those supports were rendered redundant. our trading is like that bicycle and existing jobs etc are those support rods with small wheels. remove them when they become redundant by the consistent trading balance.

: not before that

: I'm sure some day Rajanji will say that 98pc are wrongly into trading. and I'll agree with him. at least from present state of mind of all..... self talk

: day trading is strictly for professionals and full timers

: IMO

: surprised to see new comers there. and so many. rather, majority

: new comers cone to trading because they can't wait for investing returns. but in the end, majority end up extremely late even by slowest investing time table

: the first 100 keys one gets turn out to be knives

: I have 200 of those somewhere in my old notes.... self talk

: the one which opens mind is the one that finally works

: it took me 13 years. may be I'm below average. now I can't turn back. and most likely I'll make it big in next 26 years. but it took me bloody hell longer than I thought..... self talk


trading is the only school where everyone comes experts and goes out to learn

I'm often amused and greatly satisfied to see that most of the pro traders and experts in TV go horribly wrong.

trading is taken as a mass joke. painfully amusing.

I often go to shimla sabzi mandi and see real wholesale trading.... same in the apple Mandis.

apple trucks are despatched from shimla to Delhi mandi after hearing the price and by the time trucks reach there next morning prices  have often crashed

lacs lost or gained overnight

stock markets are much more mature places and mercifully higher volume but still we trade even more primitively than the primitive ways of veh and fruit markets

pure satta

blindly

the logic behind trades that I hear are shocking at times and disturbing mostly

one of my friends was working with kingfisher. after the debacle, he turned to trading and made double history.

every key discovery is a balloon whose pin is waiting.... self talk

anyone having a real key never shares and hence remains hidden from scrutiny. the pain in the end is big. lonely failure.
groups like this are actually meant for method sharing and making rather than tipping

there is no point staying in trading without scaling up. and there is no point in scaling up without being sure about returns

if one were to open a shop for trading in stocks with some rent and salaries to pay, I'm sure one would trade differently.

free trade is the culprit

--

a case for a written trading system

All irrelevant thoughts vanish the moment we have a trading system.

every trader should have a written system which he should keep improving changing adding subtracting

If our opinion doesn't tally with that of the system, either we or the system need to align. I would love if we mostly talk with system here

instead of saying"i think....", we should be saying "my system says. ...."

just a thought. ..

habits don't let a trader change who doesn't have a system

Shame induces us to fear and sin. - Jewish quote

trader with a system and the will to continuously keep improving it should be shameless.

I'm having a written system since a decade. I laugh at the earlier versions. and soon thereafter I say sorry for my laughter when I realise that those initial versions led me to the current one

no lollipops pl

one of my friends said : 

If there is a dip indeed then I will go and purchase for next series.

my opinion : 

purchasing for "the next series" is an inherently defensive, unsure, nervous and fearful approach.....try playing always for "here and now", on "as is where is" basis.....win it or lose it or avoid it....

but don't be fearful, tentative, adhoc, unsure, defensive...this way we inadvertently give our subconscious trading mind long easy smooth rope to hang itself....take positive step, let it fail thereafter if it will......

say no to all "lollipops" in this market

why not?

one of my friends just asked me...if while going up from 7191, 7060 plus minus is so evident....which is a good 150 points down...why don't u go short for it??.........

my answer (just to share with allfrienfriends)

One, because I avoid anti trend trade.

Second, it is not for sure.

Third, if it does dip to that I can buy double to gain as much as it comes up again

no misconceptions

[12/02 8:07 pm] js: time freedom, money freedom, happy life is my dream...i want people to get  out of slavery including high paying ones....
[12/02 8:08 pm] : trading is not a casino for me....but a grand experiment of financial freedom
[12/02 8:11 pm] : just installed dolphin browser and Flash on my tabs for accessing flash detailed graphs of google finance while on the move
[12/02 8:11 pm] js: thrilled at the success.... especially since flash no more supports android post ice cream sandwich
[12/02 8:12 pm] js: trading is a truly liberating phenomenon for humans
[12/02 8:12 pm] ‪5266‬: @JS, if time permits, it is humble request, can u update blog on ur reads... earlier you regularly used to post on titles read
[12/02 8:13 pm] js: few years of investment, lifelong returns
[12/02 8:13 pm] js: didn't get you sri!?
[12/02 8:13 pm] ‪5266‬: on books read by u
[12/02 8:13 pm] js: oh
[12/02 8:14 pm] js: I no more read....
[12/02 8:14 pm] ‪5266‬: Oh
[12/02 8:17 pm] js: during 1995 to 2010, read hundreds.... last few years list appetite. have around 30 plus books on shelf waiting to be read. bought them instinctively impulsively but whenever picked them up, got bored after reading a page or two. perhaps the inner self was rebelling and wanted me to achieve something practically before letting me read more, to reflect before any more ingestion.
[12/02 8:17 pm] js: damn frank sharing
[12/02 8:17 pm] js: phases of psyche perhaps
[12/02 8:18 pm] js: most of the things bore me a lot. and the few things that don't, I worship
[12/02 8:20 pm] js: I don't deserve even a single more book till I pass the exam of the ones I have already read.... self talk
[12/02 8:21 pm] js: trading is character building furnace.... self talk
[12/02 8:40 pm] js: the best advice I can give to any serious trading student is to develop his or her own method. listen to every wise and fool in the arena, taste every technical fundamental and otherwise, but use his or her own observation and head to make a simple effective commonsense practical method. traders are failing and struggling not because of lack of knowledge but because of wrong knowledge and choking confusion
[12/02 8:40 pm] Joshi: @Js ji i learn lot of things frm ur msgs...
But miss your blog...
Please restart...
Or atleast write a book abt ur technicals...
[12/02 8:40 pm] js: and the most important thing.... play, not trade
[12/02 8:41 pm] js: a trading trader can never make it big. even small is doubtful.
[12/02 8:41 pm] js: I am regularly posting in my blog. once every week minimum. pl check
[12/02 8:42 pm] Joshi: Link ?
[12/02 8:43 pm] js: I add to it only when I have something new to say. and I'm glad I keep getting that regularly courtesy this group.
[12/02 8:44 pm] js: The Best Business in the World.....Stock Trading!!! http://thebestbusinessintheworld.blogspot.com/
[12/02 8:44 pm] ‪6331‬: Never lose hope nor give up is another tool for success in trading
[12/02 8:45 pm] jz: this is the most difficult and demanding. and enough
[12/02 8:49 pm] js: when ever I'm free I amuse myself by simulating in mind some new clever cunning simple strategy to increase trade efficiencies and effectiveness. and percentage trade returns. besides other irritants and challenges which keep appearing
[12/02 8:50 pm] js: washing utensils at home is my favourite pastime. this way I have cleaned and clarified most of my trading confusions....
[12/02 8:51 pm] js: and so are long solo walks
[12/02 8:51 pm] js: on the Sanjauli Shimla road thru the thick woods
[12/02 8:52 pm] jagmohanshan: I think off market hours and act during
[12/02 8:54 pm] js: I wake up typically by 6 and remain tucked in the quilt till 7 at least and this is the most luxurious self thought trading meditation I do.... this is the only meditation I do and I love it.... absolutely zero disturbance
[12/02 8:54 pm] js: while everyone is still sleeping
[12/02 8:55 pm] js: the markets give way to the lovers
[12/02 8:56 pm] js: and seldom to the invaders
[12/02 8:57 pm] js: may the markets live till eternity....
[12/02 8:57 pm] js: thank you for triggering the 1107 th article for my blog☺
[12/02 8:58 pm] js: my blog is my frozen struggle... full of solidified emotions and passion
[12/02 8:58 pm] js: unadulterated
[12/02 8:58 pm] js: full of stupidities and discoveries
[12/02 8:59 pm] js: everything everyone like me is susceptible to
[12/02 9:00 pm] sandeep: I work everyday late night for 4-5 hours madly looking at everything
[12/02 9:01 pm] js: madness is the sign of approaching love
[12/02 9:01 pm] js: and love is the guarantee of liberation
[12/02 9:02 pm] sandeep: It is going on for months and never lost hope. I find something interesting and then while back testing hope goes off.
This way I have learnt things and improved it.
[12/02 9:02 pm] js: not surprised that it seems my flashback
[12/02 9:03 pm] sandeep: Your dedication motivates me go harder and harder.
Your blog was the starting journey for my trading career and now I am addicted to it in a big way trying to find something
[12/02 9:03 pm] jagmohanshan: my blog and me are now different. it is now my mother of trading.
[12/02 9:03 pm] sandeep: I made a point to trade small and not to expect great returns till I work on something which gives reasonable success.
[12/02 9:03 pm] js: it smiles at me when she looks me looking her
[12/02 9:04 pm] js: that's the right and wonderful approach
[12/02 9:04 pm] js: I never expected money to I deserved it truly
[12/02 9:04 pm] js: till, not to
[12/02 9:05 pm] sandeep: Now fully into my own method and doesn't follow anyone nor any advices.
I try to dig the logic of everything that is shared here.
Thanks to everyone
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: and therefore I never took big positions for years
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: I always knew multiplication is so easy. first I have to get the formula right
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: on right track busy
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: buddy
[12/02 9:06 pm] guru: the markets give way to the lovers

Thumbs up for shimla meet eager to meet u JS ji
[12/02 9:06 pm] js: successful traders are given direct appointment with God
[12/02 9:06 pm] js: because the struggle is equivalent and mutually recognised
[12/02 9:07 pm] js: ☺
[12/02 9:07 pm] guru: Sandeep...yes buddy u r in right track..keep it up
[12/02 9:07 pm] js: in inspired to recall every time how warren buffet lives a simple life and what a philanthropist he is
[12/02 9:08 pm] js: I'm
[12/02 9:08 pm] js: it's not about money beyond a point. it's about life. higher life. joy
[12/02 9:09 pm] js: anyone can be gone next minute.... it's about life for sure.
while I chat with you I'm in Ripon hospital by my relative's bed who is admitted here since some days.sitting here since last 5 hours. it is heavenly silent in the ward except the beep beep beep of the cardiac support system from the adjacent ICU. the reality of life is around me. I have no misconceptions about money

epic wastage

most of the humans are right handed.....similarly, most of the traders are bull-handed....they shou;ld realize that it doesn't matter whether it is upside or downside...they should overcome fear of shorting.....shorting is long trade on the down side!!! i never short....i buy puts..."BUY"....this is how i conquered fear of shorting many years ago....i recall i wrote an article on this (which must be there somewhere buried deep in my blog). up or down...i only buy!!!

i am often surprised on seeing traders waiting for down rallies to be over to buy.....especially when they are perfectly comfortable with calls as well as puts....why don't t hey buy puts rather than waiting? psychologists say this is similar to the fear of heights....fear of falling....nobody fears climbing.....perhaps it is because we have eyes in front and not at the back...we fear back just like we fear the unknown and the dark.....not buying downside options (or letting go the falls) is like wasting 50% of the opportunities straight away!!!.......

self talk

One cannot refuse to eat just because there is a chance of being choked. -Chinese Proverb

Overcoming fear of taking the trade after the seeing a trade.....

"Every morning we are born again . . ." – Buddhist Proverb

How true for trading

If you don't step forward, you're always in the same place. – Nora Roberts

Keep growing as a trader....self talk

"Losing is a learning experience. It teaches you humility. It teaches you to work harder. It's also a powerful motivator." - Yogi Berra

Successful traders tolerate critics to teach facts of trading that conflict with the beliefs of unsuccessful traders......(quoted from somewhere..... not mine)

We are masters of the unsaid words, but slaves of those we let slip out. – Winston Churchill

How true for the trade announced.....and trading gut ignored....

The best teachers are those who show you where to look, but don’t tell you what to see. — Alexandra K. Trenfor

And trades we take are the best teachers we have got....

Confucius says: "If you make a mistake and do not correct it, this is called a mistake."

"Since it is all too clear, it takes time to grasp it." — Zen Proverb

Trading is simple and hence difficult

Do not look where you fell, but where you slipped. —African Proverb

Feeling of loss is crippling....and demoralising....hence making us forget to see where we slipped

Perhaps one has to be very old before one learns how to be amused rather than shocked. – Pearl S. Buck

A trader, therefore, better age in trades than years...

He who angers you conquers you. ~ Elizabeth Kenny

Operators do that daily....and not just anger....

Habits are first cobwebs, then cables. -Spanish Proverb

Critical for traders......

"Confidence comes not from always being right but from not fearing to be wrong." - Peter T. Mcintyre

Traders included

A smooth sea never made a skilled mariner. ~ English Proverb

Don't seek easy trading setup, seek skill and good nerve

The key to change is to let go of fear. ~ Rosanne Cash

Essential advanced quality required to succeed as a trader

By nature, men are nearly alike; by practice, they get to be wide apart. -Confucius

Practice practice practice

The true value of a (trader) can be found in the degree to which he has attained liberation from the self. – Albert Einstein

The roots of education are bitter, but the fruit is sweet. -Aristotle

Learn, don't gamble

I’m the only person I know that’s lost a quarter of a billion dollars in one year…. It’s very character-building. – Steve Jobs

The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops eventually. – A.A. Milne / Eeyore

Difficult times do end in trading career

You have to put in many, many tiny efforts that nobody sees or appreciates before you achieve anything worthwhile. – Brian Tracy

(Learning trading) is 1pc inspiration and 99pc perspiration....

"Before enlightenment, chop wood, carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood carry water." ~ Zen Proverb

Chop wood, carry water......practice practice practice

Life begins at the end of your comfort zone. – Neale Donald Walsche

(Trading) Excellence is an art won by training & habituation. -Aristotle

It has been my philosophy of life that (trading) difficulties vanish when faced boldly. ~ Isaac Asimov

What can't be cured (in market) must be endured. -English proverbs

To understand the heart and mind of a (successful trader), look not at what he has already achieved, but what he aspires to. ~ Khalil Gibran

The only thing we have to fear (in trading) is fear itself. – Franklin D. Roosevelt

Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world. ~ Archimedes

Once u learn it, leverage..... but only thereafter

It is not the (market) mountain we conquer but ourselves. ~ Edmund Hillary

He who fears something gives it power over him. -Moorish proverb

I don't fear operators any more....and this is helping.... self talk....

(Some of these postings are part of my daily homework and mind muscle workout.time i spend with myself thinking about my trading)

Fear makes the wolf bigger than he is. -German proverb

Fear and greed are only engines of trading. Get rid of both,not just in words but in reality. Trade like an unimotional humanised machine.

For me, trading is one of the three sources of joy and meaning in life.it is not only about money. It is about self realisation, happiness, challenge, security, joy, character building....self talk

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.

— Epictetus

A trader must not cover up his stupid trades and trade bases by dressing his bruises with hollow excuses...must slap self and admit his foolishness loud and clear....

Only the educated are free.

— Epictetus

Most of our (announced) trades are approval seeking chest thumping kick seeking gallery performances rather than genuine wise Gujarati trades making critical trading sense.....our trades are more of wishful gambles. If traditional traders in our cities were to know how and on what basis we choose our trade, they will laugh at us....just because we have a demat account, money to blow doesn't mean we are true traders...most of the time we are the pseudo rich who come to market like people go to race courses....self talk

Can (a trader) remain unmoving until the right action arises by itself?

— Tao te Ching

Thoughts cement attitudes towards trading situations. Flexibility, neutrality is sacrificed setting the stage for a perfect failure....self

"Grasp at nothing.resist nothing"....i like it guru.... that's the essence!

Eg....i get a sense that we are in sell on rise phase as of now....but I am ready for any painting the operators draw on this canvas background....

Good traders are never proactive IMO. they are reactors....with strategy, backup plans and resources

Operators trap the eager. The lazy join the hunters.

I am not an adventurer by choice but by fate.

— Vincent Van Gogh

I don't take trades. Trades take themselves. i am just their broker.

IMO, it is a pity that everyone, every new upcoming aspirant trader thinks technicals is the only and compulsory way. let me tell them, it is not the only way, and surely not compulsory. it helps but it also traps. it is a mole. it is working as much for operators to snatch you money as much as helping you to snatch operators'

you need gaming skill to make money in market, not technical skills. operators know what technicals you are looking at. don't be a sitting duck for them

technicals are just a language. rules of same technicals are evolving and changing regularly to ensure the tiny ridiculously resourceful minority keeps trapping the sheepish masses

I'm not against technicals. I use them. but I use them to guess operators' game and what masses are being lured into.

95pc are losing despite technicals.

technicals are non living things. they are just applied psychology mathematical models. but the tragedy is they are considered absolute truths whereas the reality is that they are dynamic tools of tactical players for mass destruction

0009‬: JS ji.. this is leading to one more question... what if Operators know that we know them ?

0009‬: what if mass turn into " we know you" types ? how will they plan then

js:they will love it. they will see it as a superb opportunity to roast all of us together by changing the game

it is a game. you need gaming skill. period. IMO. I've been saying this since years. all my method and system is based on this.

life, is no doubt, fair

I woke up long ago and can't tell how glad I'm. I go nuts explaining my trading approach and system to those who seek, for this very reason. people are stuck in the archaic grooves.

009‬: JS ji, life is fair... i am rem this famous "The Story of the Taoist Farmer"

js: in a way, I don't mind. I might unwittingly be eating their money. can't help it

no lion loves educated cattle

Trading for excitement will cost you time, money and your emotional health. – Amy Sangster

If a man fools me once, shame on him. If he fools me twice, shame on me. -Chinese Proverbs

I shiver to recall how many times operators have fooled the masses....

I never learned anything while I was talking. ~ Larry King

Serious trading self training is strictly personal affair.....self talk

"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." - John Maynard Keynes

"No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation." - Robert Rhea

"I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one." - Mark Twain

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks." - John Bogle

sometimes ago, i used to hate the adverse movements of the market especially at the cusps of trend changes or when the markets entered ranges without warnings, without my even suspecting it. not any more. when i realised that there is money to made even during adverse times. rather, there is more money to be made during bluffs (provided ofcourse, u know how to spot the bluff with reasonable accuracy). if u can't spot the bluff, u hand over the money, if u can spot, u get the chance to up your cheque. after a few tries, the fear goes down and u start seeing the juicy opportunity in the trend turning chaos.......self talk

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks." - John Bogle

"Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers

during these long ice ages do the hedge funds and professionals make most of their money......

"In investing (as well as trading), what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott

short term trading is (practically) opposite to the investing (in the same stock, at the same time).....investing is value picking, short term trading is dodge money snatching

"The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time." - Jesse Livermore

: to avoid being a fool is actually becoming a fool......imo

: the most difficult lesson to learn in trading is to be comfortable being "the odd man out", "the fool",

"the loner".......reapeatedly.....its like swallowing ur pride time after time......without this skill trading success can never be true and consistent.

"The more you think you know, the more closed-minded you'll be." - Ray Dalio

clever and pro traders don't know all....rather, they know they don't know for sure.....but they have trading traps to trap money successfully.....

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." - Warren Buffet

"Risk come from Not Knowing what You are Doing." - Warren Buffett

never trade like a scared pigeon....ready to fly at the first loud sound.....which eventually will be...pros know what they are doing and what they "will be doing" if "something new happens"

"Options are to Stocks and Futures as 3D Chess is to Checkers" - Jack Bouroudijan from CNBC

options are difficult to understand, but once done open floodgates of options!!!

"If markets were rational I'd be waiting tables for a living" - Warren Buffett

what more proof do we need that being surprised,shocked, trapped is a normal thing to expect in stock market. so instead of hating it, expect it and design trade system accordingly.

"It's human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely explanation." ~William Bernstein

vibrations are the weaknesses of the market. pity, instead of exploiting them, we turn weak instead

don't worry about being right or wrong in a trade.....keep thinking about making money in every situation.....if u don't make cash, make stocks

There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.
Paul Tudor Jones

The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.
Paul Tudor Jones

trading is a business.....the most rewarding profitable business with least overheads

Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked.
Paul Tudor Jones

u don't try and forget bad trades.....u put it on the autopsy table and do a michelangelo

never fear a losing trade....make him ur best friend....blood relative

if u can trade vegetables....u can trade any commodity on the commodity exchange....and if u can trade a commodity, u can trade stocks/indices.......it is our trading common sense which is numb

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching." Jesse Livermore

see......even JL called it "game".....it is, it is, it is...

trading is a hunting game....the prey will always behave errantly.....keep ur cool, play it

everyone looks for trading success by learning to win. they hit road blocks because they take wrong road. for trading success learn to lose. by learning to win, u r ignoring/avoiding the ways u lose. this way u r not learning. the one who has exhausted the ways of losing and learning/noting all, is all set to win.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”

– Benjamin Graham.

if u can take advantage of this anamoly, u have the trading talent. u r cunning enough to be a successful trader

“Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.”

– Bruce Kovner.

bet small till u learn. leverage when u have graduated. plough back part of the profit to scale up.
never trade with ur family's money, your future's money, borrowed money. if u have got the formula, u can grow exponentially. money doesn't make money. formula makes money. novices try making money with money power.

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”

– Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson.

trading too is not gambling

“The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.”

– Basketball Legend Michael Jordan

how true for trading

trading is playing the bluff game

most of our technical analyses is used to signal entry points....hardly any to signal exits.....self talk

learn the theoretical basics of bungie jumping and then take the jump. because till u take the actual jump, even ph.d. in theory won't make u a good bungie jumper. fort hat u have to take the jump. then jump after jump. after the basics, develop ur own theory......same about trading.

this is what i did, frankly, when i look back.....self talk

if people are throwing value out of panic, keep picking

"Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away." - Jim Cramer

learn to identify it, then exploit it....the market is willing to fund it for u with options

if i have seen ur bluff, why wouldn't i short it?     self talk

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.”

Amateurs want to be right. Professionals want to make money.

If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd. - Sir John Templeton

If you expect to continue to purchase stocks throughout your life, you should welcome price declines as a way to add stocks more cheaply to your portfolio. - Warren Buffet

what a hint for trading...

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. -- George Soros

money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. - George Soros

In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten. - Peter Lynch

"Every day I assume every position I have is wrong." Paul Tudor Jones

"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt." Paul Tudor Jones

and my inspiration =

“After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.”Paul Tudor Jones

"I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." Paul Tudor Jones

"At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control." Paul Tudor

“ 90 % of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike, simply haven’t done enough homework,” -William J.O’Neil

ok, stop calling yourself a trader....call urself businessman.....maybe that way, u will choose the trade-off better.....self talk

To have a method or a trading plan truly hardwired into your head takes many, many impressions or, ideally, many months or even years of demo or live trading. Gaining that experience takes discipline.  - Jay Norris

We recommend always starting out with just one contract per position trade and keeping your stop far enough away from price. Your stop generally should be placed just beyond the last swing high or low on the chart.  - Jay Norris

Taking a few days off from watching the market to clear your mind can be the best remedy for a losing streak. - Kathy Lien

Trading is a business like every other business. You have to gain knowledge and experience and constantly make decisions. You can never eliminate the decision-making process by rules, systems or any software if you want to succeed in the business.
Robert C. Miner

A trade plan does not guarantee success, but lack of one guarantees failure.
Robert C. Miner

If you can’t make money with unleveraged trades, you’ll never make money with leveraged trades.
Robert C. Miner

Until you have developed a consistently successful trading plan that is profitable on a regular basis, your objective is not to make money but to learn to trade.
Robert C. Miner

the above 2 i have believed since years

I believe day-trading provides the least return for your time and investment of any time frame of trading.
Robert C. Miner

The best trading systems have less than ten rules.
Markus Heitkoetter

Usually you can expect the following from a robust trading system: 1. A winning percentage of 60-80%; 2. A profit factor of 1.3-2.5; 3. A maximum drawdown of 10-20% of the yearly profit.
Markus Heitkoetter

Find a system that produces at least five trades per week.
Markus Heitkoetter

Trade only twice a day – once in the morning and once in the afternoon. Continue trading this way for at least the first 2 to 3 months. I recommend a toolbox consisting of at the most three Indicators.
Markus Heitkoetter

A successful trader is one who is able to apply proven methods with a success rate of about 70%. In fact, some successful traders are very profitable even with a 60% success rate.
Yeo Keong Hee

We should always respect the presence of support and resistance levels on a price chart; they represent "invisible forces" that tend to repel prices away from them.
Yeo Keong Hee

Successful trading is often about uncovering tendencies in our trading behaviour that originate from the subconscious mind.
Yeo Keong Hee

Successful trading is often about uncovering tendencies in our trading behaviour that originate from the subconscious mind.
Yeo Keong Hee

The trader who masters all three—-technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and risk management-—is truly a “triple threat” trader.
Ed Ponsi

Achieving a goal of just 1 percent per month would put you well ahead of most traders, since the majority of traders lose money. While a goal of 2 percent per month may not sound awe inspiring, if we can achieve it consistently, the annual gain will be just shy of 27 percent—and you’ll have outperformed most mutual funds and hedge funds........By the time you work your way up to consistent monthly returns of 3 percent and then 4 percent, you’ll be putting up respectable numbers, and you’ll have gained the benefit of months of experience. If you can achieve consistent monthly gains of 5 percent or 6 percent, you will have truly joined the elite.--Ed Ponsi

An important factor of trading success lies in the matching of Method with the trader’s own personality and trading style.
Grace Cheng

The key is to make your overall trading approach meaningful but to make any individual trade meaningless.
Boris Schlossberg

reading all this from global legends and veterans is so encouraging and confidence boosting and endorsing. it's like they are telling me all this face to face....

It really should not take more than 30 minutes a day to evaluate all markets, and it could take only 10 to 15 if you can really focus on the markets instead of your opinions about the markets. All you need to trade on a position basis is a few minutes at the end of the market day to place your orders for the next day.
Bill Williams

If you are totally new to the markets, you may expect a learning curve of one to a few months. Our goal is 10 percent per month ROI. That is more than 300 percent per year.
Bill Williams

One of the reasons institutional traders succeed better than does the average trader is that they have much more capital behind them. They can and do make the same mistakes but don’t have to worry that one mistake will end their careers; with capital and management behind them, they can survive those mistakes.
Marcel Link

Every day you’ll get one or two situations that look and feel great. Just be patient and wait for them; there is no need to try to beat the market all day long.
Marcel Link