Interpreting move of operators from options - II

the first article with the same name was about guessing the broader underlying trend of the market.....typically medium term.....

this article is to check whether the short term trend is in line with the underlying trend or the market is going to do the opposite for some days before it continues in the real (medium term) direction....

lemme take a practical example....

the cmp of nifty on 30th Jan 2015 closing = 8808

now lets go 200 deep on both sides, call as well as put side

8600pe=77/-
9000ce=126/-

now if the market were to go down 100 points, 77 is likely to become 102 (current 8700pe value) (roughly speaking)....that's a profit of 25 points

on the other hand, if the market were to go up 100 points, 126 is likely to become 171 (current 8900ce value) (roughly speaking).....a profit of 45 points

since operators are generally the writers/sellers of the options, they will like to give you 25points rather than 45 points.....hinting thereby that they are taking the market down in the short come.