trend check?

one of the most popular, most important and least understood and confusing aspect in trading is.....trend.

"trend is your friend!" it is said. but just as in normal world, it is difficult to know who is your true friend, it is equally if not more difficult to know what is the underlying, undercurrent, true trend of the market as of now.

trading without knowing the underlying trend is like para-gliding without knowing the direction and speed of the wind.

as i said in one of previous articles, if you are pro-trend even your blunders are likely to be pardoned. even if a new trader knows nothing about the market, he or she is almost sure to make money if only he or she takes pro-trend trades, sticks to it and doesn't vibrate too much (which market tries hard to make you to).

while a pro-trend ill-timed casual trade is likely to give profit (or atleast little or no loss), a well-timed studied pro-trend trade can give snowball profits washing away all self-doubts.

trend is decided by the market forces endorsed by the operators who know almost all.

and many a times, the trend is not obvious, by choice. market fluctuates a lot making the retail trader believe that either there is no trend or trapping the poor fellow take the wrong trend as the trend.

how is trend decided? 

i pondered over this question for many many months and came out with different answers. i knew that the key to trading success lies in the lock of "trend". over the time, i shortlisted and devised some methods to know the real trend.

the three top shortlisted tools for knowing the real underlined undercurrent trend are:

- moving average

- rsi

- options premium data analyses

but curiously, but not so surprisingly (after you read the game plan of the operators putlined below), all three parameters above are not awake at the same time at any time. i guess this is deliberate, to confuse and trap the prey.

while there are many other ways to know the trend, these are among the best. for these tools are effcient in knowing a hidden, camouflaged or subtle trend as well.

and the good thing is that all three of these are technically and genetically different and hence independent and without influence from each other. 

in my blog www.niftyshots.blogspot.com, i will henceforth, try and share regularly trend for the current nifty series based on my study of the above parameters. since trend changes max 2-3 times a month, don't be surprised if the updation about it in the blog is not daily. so, when i share the trend direction, it indicates the trend on that day / during those days of that series. it may change after a few days as and if market decides for the same.

also, note that i call the trend - underlying trend, because many a times, a trend is either not obvious or not visible. for major portion of the time, operators will not like to let the trend be known. after all, operators are against the majority. and they want the minority to be as small as possible. they will try every trick of the trade to not let you know what the trend is going to be before the explosive breakout or breakdown. or, they will not like you to know that they are accumulating or distributing. accumulation and distribution phases happen before the trend is actually visible. 

what this means is that a trend is there even before it appears on the screen. also, a trend may be there even when there is no movement on the graph. just like a snake which is alive and waiting with held breath, even when it is motionless. not only that, a trend may be up even when the market may move 50-100 points down in one or few days.....vice verse is also true. 

operators do whatever is possible to keep everyone confused. they want you to take wrong sides. and once having done that they tend to move the market so fast that everyone is left stranded behind high and dry.

having said that, i want to end by saying that while operators do a lot of things to confuse and trick retail traders, they leave a few clear, inevitable and shameless clues that reveal the trend for the keen silent emotionless motionless eye.

happy "trading"