Friday, February 19, 2016

restless elephants of the market

one reason why, at times, operators take time to move the market and keep it range bound, besides dodging tactics, is that they need time to offload or accumulate large quantities within a range of price.

their situation is not like ours that place order for a few lots, get the order executed and we are done.

...but much bigger (at times mind-boggling) numbers.

imagine u having to take longs in 10000 nifty lots within a range of 20 points before letting the market move - without creating panic or furor, without disturbing the law and order of the market, without dropping even a hint, without disturbing the price.

........u will sweat at the challenge. doubt, computers help u do that, but u need deep pockets to douse threatening fires, to keep the restless elephants patient.......

Thursday, February 18, 2016


Js: dear V, I'm sure u don't leave ur shop open and unattended when u go elsewhere including trading. then why leave trades unattended while u manage shop!

Pl don't take trades casually or lightly. such approach has ruined many just like traditional businessmen who didn't take their business with discipline and seriousness.
generally I don't interfere in personal trading approach of others. but being a friend and well wisher I couldn't ignore ur message. u r talented and gifted as I have seen in the past. Pl take a break and come back 100pc.
dear Dev, since u ur self seem aware that u might be erring somewhere u r out of danger and on the edge of liberation from that issue . as osho says...Being aware about a crippling fact is itself half the liberation from it.
I also strongly believe in the maxim...."nobody is coming".....One has to save himself.

trading is not a pub we go to to drown our sorrows to seek cheap temporary thrill. trading is serious business.....self talk
saraswati, lakshmi, kuber. ....all there
Murliji: I recall my initial days of day trading in 2009. After placing orders without SL, used to go for official meetings for 2-3 hours. Now I realise how suicidal, it used to be. A pilot leaving cockpit for 2-3 hours and the plane will certainly crash. Now I don't trade unless google finance is available and proper SL is placed.
Js: If only our spouses or parents or children or friends circle knew what and how we are doing.....I'm sure we won't trade again the way we do.....self talk.there is a he'll lot of adhocism, casualness, gambling in our approach to trading....self talk
A pilot leaving cockpit for 2-3 hours and the plane will certainly crash......I like it Murliji
Murliji: Trading is definitely a serious business. Casual approach need to be avoided. Unfortunately we pass through that stage and realise at a later stage. Then we wish "koi lauta de mere beete hue din"
Js: It's ok to leave the cockpit for a few hours during trans continental positional flights but in day trading battle way

Stay at the wicket, have a heart

dear friends, i want to share a very important thing....a learning for me...a lesson.....
here is it...
someone might recall that on 2nd feb i was still long (around 7550spot) as i had not got the down rally signal and the rally, as per me, was 95% approx done)......
just then the market fell sharply around 100 points and i had to forego some of the profit of the remaining long lots
at that time, i prematurely (under pressure and shaken by the sudden fall) turned short at around 7400 approx...
at that time anyone could have said that i missed the meat of the downfall (more than 100 points missed!)......even i, for once thought that way.....
but i found the downside rally signal only above 7400 and added shorts at 7475 spot.....
despite losing heart at missing that 100 plus point drop on 2nd.....i still garnered 500plus points in next 4 days in the subsequent rally......
my point is, that despite a big adverse shock of some 100-150 points, still i won the game for myself......thereby giving me the lesson that just because u have lost seemingly big thing doesn't mean nothing is the larger picture that big thing may be quite in the game.....
lemme illustrate with two self explanatory graphs
this is what the situation looked like after 2nd was natural to feel damn bad and lose heart.......
ashokji: That is were I got confused Js ji..I was long too...turning back to 7475 was deceptive......
Js: and this what it looks like today EoD

moral and lesson of the story.....if u stay at the wicket and overcome a close call.....u can still hit a century or double......
when u r worried at a situation, always remember u will be pleasantly shocked from a distant view/angle.....
had i refused to short after that nasty fall of 2nd feb, thinking that meat of the fall is over and i have missed it, gues what would have i missed!!!
this is one of the reason why i shorted near closing today as well after i found myself left with just 1 bullet in my revolver.....with battle just less than half over
who knows what the graph may look like in 1-2 days!!!
sonti: Js ji, tomorrow also gap down?
Js: don't know.....but what if it does? "am i placed right for it" was the question before me.....when i know that the rally is far from over, i am assured that i will get back my today's bet within a few days even if it were to shoot up tomorrow.......when it is draw-win situation, why shouldn't a trader take that sitter!!!
sgx is already indicating 6918......
it may or may not sustain....but that is not the point....the point is buying a heater in mid summer may look cool but is not positive trading.......
operators are mavericks and only maverick traders can be spared the bullet....self talk
and trader masses are still not crying....and begging will still be left....
1022‬: श्री जगमोहनजी , कितने सुन्दर ढंग और तर्क के साथ आपने बात को रखा है। जो कि एकदम सही है। एक 100 पॉइंट की गलती 500 पॉइंट का सही कदम दिखा सकती है। गज़ब
Js: शुक्रिया विष्णु जी....
william % r is not down but buried!!! it will need some external help to come out before standing!!!
any extreme value of rsi, william is not a natural rebound especially when it is in that value range since some time.....
: 90% plus william that too pro-trend is a falling sword (not just a falling knife).....
: besides william is a dog alone...and with rsi it becomes a wolf.......
: look at rsi on 1 month is 2.18
: that's hell....from where it takes time to return
: as is often said.....most of the rallies happen in oversold and overbought zone.....
: sgx is now recovering.....but that's again not the point...morning is another day
: everyone knows that rebound is around the corner....and that's precisely the reason why it is not...imo
: it's a GAME!!!
: it will rebound....but without the majority......
: treachery is the word...
: operators are extremes are too much for them.....

the logic of buying "costly" stocks

when u r sinking....where do u put ur dry cookies? 

in the container which has already sunk or in the one that is still dry?, by this logic i keep buying/adding those stocks on every nifty decline which are not falling or have fallen much less....

earlier i used to buy the stock which was available much cheaper than earlier....the one which has fallen the most....instead of those which were still relatively dearer.....

head of the trader

also, i have realized one is not the speed of your internet, the number of terminals u have, or the configuration of the terminals, or the books on your shelves or the ambience of your trading room or the broker pedigree you keep etc that decides your success in trading.

.....far from it, it is your system, discipline and money management (safeguarding) that is the decisive thing.
just like it is not just the camera (and certainly not beyond basic specs) which decides the quality of the shot
Head of the photographer is more important than his camera. (Philippe Halsman)
same is true about the trader and his trade

why not all in one go?

Murliji: Dear JS. Just out of curiosity. You are fully confident of your system developed after years of hard work. Why book profit in few or some lots bullets. Why not at one go once you get trend reversal or end of rally feelers.
Js: excellent question Murliji. lemme give an example to justify partial booking. my system is reasonably confident of going from say 1000 to 2000.but markets are unpredictable in the route they take. they may go like 1000 to 1250 to 1075 to 1389 to 1215 to 1666 to 1444 to 1701 to 1506 to 1888 to 1666 to 2100.....why not milk all folds and pull backs.
: besides, nerves stay cool
: my system hints the direction and extent of rally but not the exact path, zig zag or straight. so I moulded and designed my system to comply with this uncertainty and unpredictability. my system is probabilistic wonder with deterministic handicap.
: the market had gone my expected direction and extent but I was never sure of the speed and exact route

: I can never be. none except operators can be
: I guess even operators ate not sure about exact path they will be taking. its something like a chess game. so many permutations combinations are the. even a single unexpected move or happening may force or lure operators to alter the course.
: for example, my system is telling me rally only half over, and that we are in sell on rise, and that some relief really is inevitable, and that relief really has to come stealthily, and that everyone is waiting for it etc etc. ...but when and how system doesn't tell me. I can only align and be ready and keep milking till then besides keeping plan b,c,d ready

bro, what exactly do u want?

200 points up in 2 hours, approaching budget and still operators managing to instill sufficient fear in the minds of the traders regarding whether to enter or not.

...whether it is poised to fall now.
....amazing operator game.
....simply amazing.
...brazen animal instincts at play.
...sheep, hounds and the lions....self talk

the masses crave for longs during bear rallies.
....operators succumb to their demand a bit too late  and by the time they actually allow the longs, the masses start craving for shorts!!! 
....what a dilemma.
.....masses never get what they want.
...always remain cribbing.
...victims of fear and uncertainty.
....operators use this so well

every trader should ask himself during introspection times "bhai, tuu chahta kya hai?" (bro, what exactly do u want?"

"no" to "free" trade

js : trading is a business because it is the business of the businesses
if you can survive part time you can survive full time for sure. vice versa is doubtful.

if you don't have the key, opening a lock is the toughest business. if you have the key, it is the easiest. that's why I always say spend time and energy finding your key

 even a small tea stall can support a life. trading surely can. you need tech of trade, capital, trading character and commitment. commitment atleast as much as that tea vendor's.
the trouble is masses take trading as part time gambling with a respectable name. I don't mind if they are totally missing its business potential. this is much cleaner than the businesses


rajan : what i fear the most is that many wanna be traders may get motivated and start trading full time , giving up there jobs (how so ever small it might be).

Earning from trading is one of the most difficult things-Believe me.

It is emotionally , physiologically, and if you do not have the vantage position then financially draining.

I am really sorry to be a spoil sport but i am concerned about many traders here who may jump to trading as profession without really knowing the tricks of the trade.


js : I totally agree. that's the reason why I didn't switch to date. I have my own criterion of when I'll allow myself to go full time


rajan : i can count many traders who were good in trading , going broke.. when big fund house can go broke , who have every infomation and technology at there disposal, ;a small traders plight can be well gauged


js : criterion 1.....18 months of buffer funds...... 2. already 3 months of consecutively making double what I'm earning today...... 3. when I'm damn sure about the system's consistency in varying situations

: but having said that, improving and improving to the extent of consistent excellent returns does lead you to the inevitable objective of going full time. that should be the logical end. but I totally agree that no one should kick stable income source till trading is yielding much more since long

: I never wish to instigate anyone to go pro trader. just like I won't instigate anyone to fly an aircraft without training. but that should be final aim. no shortcuts.

: if you don't aim, you will never reach. your approach will always be adhoc. like a stock market daily wager. like the habitual single digit lottery buyer of every evening

: also, anyone not intending to be full time trader shouldn't be a part time as well. he better be an investor or go mutual fund route or other asset class.

: Rajanji's warning is true and timely. it is a reality check. a spanner in brakeless wheels. perhaps, full time trading is not for everyone. and hence shouldn't be discussed recklessly openly least some hapless unsuspecting guy falls pray to day dreaming. trading surely is damn difficult to mastered. no doubt. and can be the shortest cut to disaster in life. and we have families to support.

: but those who are serious and disciplined enough should either marry trading sooner or later or stop flirting

: I think we all remember bicycle of our childhood with two support rods on both sides rear with small wheels at the end. these prevented us from falling. we removed them when those were not touched in our normal riding after days of practice. when those supports were rendered redundant. our trading is like that bicycle and existing jobs etc are those support rods with small wheels. remove them when they become redundant by the consistent trading balance.

: not before that

: I'm sure some day Rajanji will say that 98pc are wrongly into trading. and I'll agree with him. at least from present state of mind of all..... self talk

: day trading is strictly for professionals and full timers


: surprised to see new comers there. and so many. rather, majority

: new comers cone to trading because they can't wait for investing returns. but in the end, majority end up extremely late even by slowest investing time table

: the first 100 keys one gets turn out to be knives

: I have 200 of those somewhere in my old notes.... self talk

: the one which opens mind is the one that finally works

: it took me 13 years. may be I'm below average. now I can't turn back. and most likely I'll make it big in next 26 years. but it took me bloody hell longer than I thought..... self talk

trading is the only school where everyone comes experts and goes out to learn

I'm often amused and greatly satisfied to see that most of the pro traders and experts in TV go horribly wrong.

trading is taken as a mass joke. painfully amusing.

I often go to shimla sabzi mandi and see real wholesale trading.... same in the apple Mandis.

apple trucks are despatched from shimla to Delhi mandi after hearing the price and by the time trucks reach there next morning prices  have often crashed

lacs lost or gained overnight

stock markets are much more mature places and mercifully higher volume but still we trade even more primitively than the primitive ways of veh and fruit markets

pure satta


the logic behind trades that I hear are shocking at times and disturbing mostly

one of my friends was working with kingfisher. after the debacle, he turned to trading and made double history.

every key discovery is a balloon whose pin is waiting.... self talk

anyone having a real key never shares and hence remains hidden from scrutiny. the pain in the end is big. lonely failure.
groups like this are actually meant for method sharing and making rather than tipping

there is no point staying in trading without scaling up. and there is no point in scaling up without being sure about returns

if one were to open a shop for trading in stocks with some rent and salaries to pay, I'm sure one would trade differently.

free trade is the culprit


a case for a written trading system

All irrelevant thoughts vanish the moment we have a trading system.
every trader should have a written system which he should keep improving changing adding subtracting
If our opinion doesn't tally with that of the system, either we or the system need to align. I would love if we mostly talk with system here
instead of saying"i think....", we should be saying "my system says. ...."
just a thought. ..
habits don't let a trader change who doesn't have a system
Shame induces us to fear and sin. - Jewish quote
trader with a system and the will to continuously keep improving it should be shameless.
I'm having a written system since a decade. I laugh at the earlier versions. and soon thereafter I say sorry for my laughter when I realise that those initial versions led me to the current one

no lollipops pl

one of my friends said : 

If there is a dip indeed then I will go and purchase for next series.

my opinion : 

purchasing for "the next series" is an inherently defensive, unsure, nervous and fearful approach.....try playing always for "here and now", on "as is where is" it or lose it or avoid it....
but don't be fearful, tentative, adhoc, unsure, defensive...this way we inadvertently give our subconscious trading mind long easy smooth rope to hang itself....take positive step, let it fail thereafter if it will......
say no to all "lollipops" in this market

why not?

one of my friends just asked me...if while going up from 7191, 7060 plus minus is so evident....which is a good 150 points down...why don't u go short for it??.........

my answer (just to share with allfrienfriends)

One, because I avoid anti trend trade.

Second, it is not for sure.

Third, if it does dip to that I can buy double to gain as much as it comes up again

Friday, February 12, 2016

no misconceptions

[12/02 8:07 pm] js: time freedom, money freedom, happy life is my dream...i want people to get  out of slavery including high paying ones....
[12/02 8:08 pm] : trading is not a casino for me....but a grand experiment of financial freedom
[12/02 8:11 pm] : just installed dolphin browser and Flash on my tabs for accessing flash detailed graphs of google finance while on the move
[12/02 8:11 pm] js: thrilled at the success.... especially since flash no more supports android post ice cream sandwich
[12/02 8:12 pm] js: trading is a truly liberating phenomenon for humans
[12/02 8:12 pm] ‪5266‬: @JS, if time permits, it is humble request, can u update blog on ur reads... earlier you regularly used to post on titles read
[12/02 8:13 pm] js: few years of investment, lifelong returns
[12/02 8:13 pm] js: didn't get you sri!?
[12/02 8:13 pm] ‪5266‬: on books read by u
[12/02 8:13 pm] js: oh
[12/02 8:14 pm] js: I no more read....
[12/02 8:14 pm] ‪5266‬: Oh
[12/02 8:17 pm] js: during 1995 to 2010, read hundreds.... last few years list appetite. have around 30 plus books on shelf waiting to be read. bought them instinctively impulsively but whenever picked them up, got bored after reading a page or two. perhaps the inner self was rebelling and wanted me to achieve something practically before letting me read more, to reflect before any more ingestion.
[12/02 8:17 pm] js: damn frank sharing
[12/02 8:17 pm] js: phases of psyche perhaps
[12/02 8:18 pm] js: most of the things bore me a lot. and the few things that don't, I worship
[12/02 8:20 pm] js: I don't deserve even a single more book till I pass the exam of the ones I have already read.... self talk
[12/02 8:21 pm] js: trading is character building furnace.... self talk
[12/02 8:40 pm] js: the best advice I can give to any serious trading student is to develop his or her own method. listen to every wise and fool in the arena, taste every technical fundamental and otherwise, but use his or her own observation and head to make a simple effective commonsense practical method. traders are failing and struggling not because of lack of knowledge but because of wrong knowledge and choking confusion
[12/02 8:40 pm] Joshi: @Js ji i learn lot of things frm ur msgs...
But miss your blog...
Please restart...
Or atleast write a book abt ur technicals...
[12/02 8:40 pm] js: and the most important thing.... play, not trade
[12/02 8:41 pm] js: a trading trader can never make it big. even small is doubtful.
[12/02 8:41 pm] js: I am regularly posting in my blog. once every week minimum. pl check
[12/02 8:42 pm] Joshi: Link ?
[12/02 8:43 pm] js: I add to it only when I have something new to say. and I'm glad I keep getting that regularly courtesy this group.
[12/02 8:44 pm] js: The Best Business in the World.....Stock Trading!!!
[12/02 8:44 pm] ‪6331‬: Never lose hope nor give up is another tool for success in trading
[12/02 8:45 pm] jz: this is the most difficult and demanding. and enough
[12/02 8:49 pm] js: when ever I'm free I amuse myself by simulating in mind some new clever cunning simple strategy to increase trade efficiencies and effectiveness. and percentage trade returns. besides other irritants and challenges which keep appearing
[12/02 8:50 pm] js: washing utensils at home is my favourite pastime. this way I have cleaned and clarified most of my trading confusions....
[12/02 8:51 pm] js: and so are long solo walks
[12/02 8:51 pm] js: on the Sanjauli Shimla road thru the thick woods
[12/02 8:52 pm] jagmohanshan: I think off market hours and act during
[12/02 8:54 pm] js: I wake up typically by 6 and remain tucked in the quilt till 7 at least and this is the most luxurious self thought trading meditation I do.... this is the only meditation I do and I love it.... absolutely zero disturbance
[12/02 8:54 pm] js: while everyone is still sleeping
[12/02 8:55 pm] js: the markets give way to the lovers
[12/02 8:56 pm] js: and seldom to the invaders
[12/02 8:57 pm] js: may the markets live till eternity....
[12/02 8:57 pm] js: thank you for triggering the 1107 th article for my blog☺
[12/02 8:58 pm] js: my blog is my frozen struggle... full of solidified emotions and passion
[12/02 8:58 pm] js: unadulterated
[12/02 8:58 pm] js: full of stupidities and discoveries
[12/02 8:59 pm] js: everything everyone like me is susceptible to
[12/02 9:00 pm] sandeep: I work everyday late night for 4-5 hours madly looking at everything
[12/02 9:01 pm] js: madness is the sign of approaching love
[12/02 9:01 pm] js: and love is the guarantee of liberation
[12/02 9:02 pm] sandeep: It is going on for months and never lost hope. I find something interesting and then while back testing hope goes off.
This way I have learnt things and improved it.
[12/02 9:02 pm] js: not surprised that it seems my flashback
[12/02 9:03 pm] sandeep: Your dedication motivates me go harder and harder.
Your blog was the starting journey for my trading career and now I am addicted to it in a big way trying to find something
[12/02 9:03 pm] jagmohanshan: my blog and me are now different. it is now my mother of trading.
[12/02 9:03 pm] sandeep: I made a point to trade small and not to expect great returns till I work on something which gives reasonable success.
[12/02 9:03 pm] js: it smiles at me when she looks me looking her
[12/02 9:04 pm] js: that's the right and wonderful approach
[12/02 9:04 pm] js: I never expected money to I deserved it truly
[12/02 9:04 pm] js: till, not to
[12/02 9:05 pm] sandeep: Now fully into my own method and doesn't follow anyone nor any advices.
I try to dig the logic of everything that is shared here.
Thanks to everyone
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: and therefore I never took big positions for years
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: I always knew multiplication is so easy. first I have to get the formula right
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: on right track busy
[12/02 9:05 pm] js: buddy
[12/02 9:06 pm] guru: the markets give way to the lovers
Thumbs up for shimla meet eager to meet u JS ji
[12/02 9:06 pm] js: successful traders are given direct appointment with God
[12/02 9:06 pm] js: because the struggle is equivalent and mutually recognised
[12/02 9:07 pm] js: ☺
[12/02 9:07 pm] guru: Sandeep...yes buddy u r in right track..keep it up
[12/02 9:07 pm] js: in inspired to recall every time how warren buffet lives a simple life and what a philanthropist he is
[12/02 9:08 pm] js: I'm
[12/02 9:08 pm] js: it's not about money beyond a point. it's about life. higher life. joy
[12/02 9:09 pm] js: anyone can be gone next minute.... it's about life for sure.
while I chat with you I'm in Ripon hospital by my relative's bed who is admitted here since some days.sitting here since last 5 hours. it is heavenly silent in the ward except the beep beep beep of the cardiac support system from the adjacent ICU. the reality of life is around me. I have no misconceptions about money

Thursday, February 11, 2016

epic wastage

most of the humans are right handed.....similarly, most of the traders are bull-handed....they shou;ld realize that it doesn't matter whether it is upside or downside...they should overcome fear of shorting.....shorting is long trade on the down side!!! i never short....i buy puts..."BUY"....this is how i conquered fear of shorting many years ago....i recall i wrote an article on this (which must be there somewhere buried deep in my blog). up or down...i only buy!!!

i am often surprised on seeing traders waiting for down rallies to be over to buy.....especially when they are perfectly comfortable with calls as well as puts....why don't t hey buy puts rather than waiting? psychologists say this is similar to the fear of heights....fear of falling....nobody fears climbing.....perhaps it is because we have eyes in front and not at the back...we fear back just like we fear the unknown and the dark.....not buying downside options (or letting go the falls) is like wasting 50% of the opportunities straight away!!!.......

Sunday, February 7, 2016

self talk

One cannot refuse to eat just because there is a chance of being choked. -Chinese Proverb

Overcoming fear of taking the trade after the seeing a trade.....

"Every morning we are born again . . ." – Buddhist Proverb

How true for trading

If you don't step forward, you're always in the same place. – Nora Roberts

Keep growing as a trader....self talk

"Losing is a learning experience. It teaches you humility. It teaches you to work harder. It's also a powerful motivator." - Yogi Berra

Successful traders tolerate critics to teach facts of trading that conflict with the beliefs of unsuccessful traders......(quoted from somewhere..... not mine)

We are masters of the unsaid words, but slaves of those we let slip out. – Winston Churchill

How true for the trade announced.....and trading gut ignored....

The best teachers are those who show you where to look, but don’t tell you what to see. — Alexandra K. Trenfor

And trades we take are the best teachers we have got....

Confucius says: "If you make a mistake and do not correct it, this is called a mistake."

"Since it is all too clear, it takes time to grasp it." — Zen Proverb

Trading is simple and hence difficult

Do not look where you fell, but where you slipped. —African Proverb

Feeling of loss is crippling....and demoralising....hence making us forget to see where we slipped

Perhaps one has to be very old before one learns how to be amused rather than shocked. – Pearl S. Buck

A trader, therefore, better age in trades than years...

He who angers you conquers you. ~ Elizabeth Kenny

Operators do that daily....and not just anger....

Habits are first cobwebs, then cables. -Spanish Proverb

Critical for traders......

"Confidence comes not from always being right but from not fearing to be wrong." - Peter T. Mcintyre

Traders included

A smooth sea never made a skilled mariner. ~ English Proverb

Don't seek easy trading setup, seek skill and good nerve

The key to change is to let go of fear. ~ Rosanne Cash

Essential advanced quality required to succeed as a trader

By nature, men are nearly alike; by practice, they get to be wide apart. -Confucius

Practice practice practice

The true value of a (trader) can be found in the degree to which he has attained liberation from the self. – Albert Einstein

The roots of education are bitter, but the fruit is sweet. -Aristotle

Learn, don't gamble

I’m the only person I know that’s lost a quarter of a billion dollars in one year…. It’s very character-building. – Steve Jobs

The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops eventually. – A.A. Milne / Eeyore

Difficult times do end in trading career

You have to put in many, many tiny efforts that nobody sees or appreciates before you achieve anything worthwhile. – Brian Tracy

(Learning trading) is 1pc inspiration and 99pc perspiration....

"Before enlightenment, chop wood, carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood carry water." ~ Zen Proverb

Chop wood, carry water......practice practice practice

Life begins at the end of your comfort zone. – Neale Donald Walsche

(Trading) Excellence is an art won by training & habituation. -Aristotle

It has been my philosophy of life that (trading) difficulties vanish when faced boldly. ~ Isaac Asimov

What can't be cured (in market) must be endured. -English proverbs

To understand the heart and mind of a (successful trader), look not at what he has already achieved, but what he aspires to. ~ Khalil Gibran

The only thing we have to fear (in trading) is fear itself. – Franklin D. Roosevelt

Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world. ~ Archimedes

Once u learn it, leverage..... but only thereafter

It is not the (market) mountain we conquer but ourselves. ~ Edmund Hillary

He who fears something gives it power over him. -Moorish proverb

I don't fear operators any more....and this is helping.... self talk....

(Some of these postings are part of my daily homework and mind muscle workout.time i spend with myself thinking about my trading)

Fear makes the wolf bigger than he is. -German proverb

Fear and greed are only engines of trading. Get rid of both,not just in words but in reality. Trade like an unimotional humanised machine.

For me, trading is one of the three sources of joy and meaning in is not only about money. It is about self realisation, happiness, challenge, security, joy, character building....self talk

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
— Epictetus

A trader must not cover up his stupid trades and trade bases by dressing his bruises with hollow excuses...must slap self and admit his foolishness loud and clear....

Only the educated are free.
— Epictetus

Most of our (announced) trades are approval seeking chest thumping kick seeking gallery performances rather than genuine wise Gujarati trades making critical trading sense.....our trades are more of wishful gambles. If traditional traders in our cities were to know how and on what basis we choose our trade, they will laugh at us....just because we have a demat account, money to blow doesn't mean we are true traders...most of the time we are the pseudo rich who come to market like people go to race courses....self talk

Can (a trader) remain unmoving until the right action arises by itself?
— Tao te Ching

Thoughts cement attitudes towards trading situations. Flexibility, neutrality is sacrificed setting the stage for a perfect failure....self

"Grasp at nothing.resist nothing"....i like it guru.... that's the essence!
Eg....i get a sense that we are in sell on rise phase as of now....but I am ready for any painting the operators draw on this canvas background....

Good traders are never proactive IMO. they are reactors....with strategy, backup plans and resources

Operators trap the eager. The lazy join the hunters.

I am not an adventurer by choice but by fate.
— Vincent Van Gogh

I don't take trades. Trades take themselves. i am just their broker.

IMO, it is a pity that everyone, every new upcoming aspirant trader thinks technicals is the only and compulsory way. let me tell them, it is not the only way, and surely not compulsory. it helps but it also traps. it is a mole. it is working as much for operators to snatch you money as much as helping you to snatch operators'

you need gaming skill to make money in market, not technical skills. operators know what technicals you are looking at. don't be a sitting duck for them
technicals are just a language. rules of same technicals are evolving and changing regularly to ensure the tiny ridiculously resourceful minority keeps trapping the sheepish masses
I'm not against technicals. I use them. but I use them to guess operators' game and what masses are being lured into.

95pc are losing despite technicals.

technicals are non living things. they are just applied psychology mathematical models. but the tragedy is they are considered absolute truths whereas the reality is that they are dynamic tools of tactical players for mass destruction

0009‬: JS ji.. this is leading to one more question... what if Operators know that we know them ?

0009‬: what if mass turn into " we know you" types ? how will they plan then

js:they will love it. they will see it as a superb opportunity to roast all of us together by changing the game
it is a game. you need gaming skill. period. IMO. I've been saying this since years. all my method and system is based on this.

life, is no doubt, fair
I woke up long ago and can't tell how glad I'm. I go nuts explaining my trading approach and system to those who seek, for this very reason. people are stuck in the archaic grooves.

009‬: JS ji, life is fair... i am rem this famous "The Story of the Taoist Farmer"

js: in a way, I don't mind. I might unwittingly be eating their money. can't help it
no lion loves educated cattle

Trading for excitement will cost you time, money and your emotional health. – Amy Sangster

If a man fools me once, shame on him. If he fools me twice, shame on me. -Chinese Proverbs

I shiver to recall how many times operators have fooled the masses....

I never learned anything while I was talking. ~ Larry King

Serious trading self training is strictly personal affair.....self talk

"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." - John Maynard Keynes

"No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation." - Robert Rhea

"I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one." - Mark Twain

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks." - John Bogle

sometimes ago, i used to hate the adverse movements of the market especially at the cusps of trend changes or when the markets entered ranges without warnings, without my even suspecting it. not any more. when i realised that there is money to made even during adverse times. rather, there is more money to be made during bluffs (provided ofcourse, u know how to spot the bluff with reasonable accuracy). if u can't spot the bluff, u hand over the money, if u can spot, u get the chance to up your cheque. after a few tries, the fear goes down and u start seeing the juicy opportunity in the trend turning chaos.......self talk

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks." - John Bogle

"Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers

during these long ice ages do the hedge funds and professionals make most of their money......

"In investing (as well as trading), what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott
short term trading is (practically) opposite to the investing (in the same stock, at the same time).....investing is value picking, short term trading is dodge money snatching

"The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time." - Jesse Livermore

: to avoid being a fool is actually becoming a fool......imo

: the most difficult lesson to learn in trading is to be comfortable being "the odd man out", "the fool",

"the loner".......reapeatedly.....its like swallowing ur pride time after time......without this skill trading success can never be true and consistent.

"The more you think you know, the more closed-minded you'll be." - Ray Dalio
clever and pro traders don't know all....rather, they know they don't know for sure.....but they have trading traps to trap money successfully.....

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." - Warren Buffet

"Risk come from Not Knowing what You are Doing." - Warren Buffett
never trade like a scared pigeon....ready to fly at the first loud sound.....which eventually will be...pros know what they are doing and what they "will be doing" if "something new happens"

"Options are to Stocks and Futures as 3D Chess is to Checkers" - Jack Bouroudijan from CNBC
options are difficult to understand, but once done open floodgates of options!!!

"If markets were rational I'd be waiting tables for a living" - Warren Buffett
what more proof do we need that being surprised,shocked, trapped is a normal thing to expect in stock market. so instead of hating it, expect it and design trade system accordingly.

"It's human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely explanation." ~William Bernstein

vibrations are the weaknesses of the market. pity, instead of exploiting them, we turn weak instead
don't worry about being right or wrong in a trade.....keep thinking about making money in every situation.....if u don't make cash, make stocks

There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.
Paul Tudor Jones

The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.
Paul Tudor Jones

trading is a business.....the most rewarding profitable business with least overheads

Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked.
Paul Tudor Jones

u don't try and forget bad trades.....u put it on the autopsy table and do a michelangelo

never fear a losing trade....make him ur best friend....blood relative

if u can trade vegetables....u can trade any commodity on the commodity exchange....and if u can trade a commodity, u can trade stocks/ is our trading common sense which is numb

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching." Jesse Livermore
see......even JL called it "game" is, it is, it is...

trading is a hunting game....the prey will always behave errantly.....keep ur cool, play it
everyone looks for trading success by learning to win. they hit road blocks because they take wrong road. for trading success learn to lose. by learning to win, u r ignoring/avoiding the ways u lose. this way u r not learning. the one who has exhausted the ways of losing and learning/noting all, is all set to win.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
– Benjamin Graham.

if u can take advantage of this anamoly, u have the trading talent. u r cunning enough to be a successful trader

“Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.”
– Bruce Kovner.

bet small till u learn. leverage when u have graduated. plough back part of the profit to scale up.
never trade with ur family's money, your future's money, borrowed money. if u have got the formula, u can grow exponentially. money doesn't make money. formula makes money. novices try making money with money power.

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”
– Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson.

trading too is not gambling

“The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.”
– Basketball Legend Michael Jordan

how true for trading

trading is playing the bluff game

most of our technical analyses is used to signal entry points....hardly any to signal exits.....self talk

learn the theoretical basics of bungie jumping and then take the jump. because till u take the actual jump, even ph.d. in theory won't make u a good bungie jumper. fort hat u have to take the jump. then jump after jump. after the basics, develop ur own theory......same about trading.
this is what i did, frankly, when i look back.....self talk

if people are throwing value out of panic, keep picking

"Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away." - Jim Cramer
learn to identify it, then exploit it....the market is willing to fund it for u with options
if i have seen ur bluff, why wouldn't i short it?     self talk

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.”

Amateurs want to be right. Professionals want to make money.

If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd. - Sir John Templeton

If you expect to continue to purchase stocks throughout your life, you should welcome price declines as a way to add stocks more cheaply to your portfolio. - Warren Buffet

what a hint for trading...

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. -- George Soros

money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. - George Soros

In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten. - Peter Lynch

"Every day I assume every position I have is wrong." Paul Tudor Jones

"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt." Paul Tudor Jones

and my inspiration =

“After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.”Paul Tudor Jones

"I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." Paul Tudor Jones

"At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control." Paul Tudor

“ 90 % of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike, simply haven’t done enough homework,” -William J.O’Neil
ok, stop calling yourself a urself businessman.....maybe that way, u will choose the trade-off better.....self talk

To have a method or a trading plan truly hardwired into your head takes many, many impressions or, ideally, many months or even years of demo or live trading. Gaining that experience takes discipline.  - Jay Norris

We recommend always starting out with just one contract per position trade and keeping your stop far enough away from price. Your stop generally should be placed just beyond the last swing high or low on the chart.  - Jay Norris

Taking a few days off from watching the market to clear your mind can be the best remedy for a losing streak. - Kathy Lien

Trading is a business like every other business. You have to gain knowledge and experience and constantly make decisions. You can never eliminate the decision-making process by rules, systems or any software if you want to succeed in the business.
Robert C. Miner

A trade plan does not guarantee success, but lack of one guarantees failure.
Robert C. Miner

If you can’t make money with unleveraged trades, you’ll never make money with leveraged trades.
Robert C. Miner

Until you have developed a consistently successful trading plan that is profitable on a regular basis, your objective is not to make money but to learn to trade.
Robert C. Miner

the above 2 i have believed since years

I believe day-trading provides the least return for your time and investment of any time frame of trading.
Robert C. Miner

The best trading systems have less than ten rules.
Markus Heitkoetter

Usually you can expect the following from a robust trading system: 1. A winning percentage of 60-80%; 2. A profit factor of 1.3-2.5; 3. A maximum drawdown of 10-20% of the yearly profit.
Markus Heitkoetter

Find a system that produces at least five trades per week.
Markus Heitkoetter

Trade only twice a day – once in the morning and once in the afternoon. Continue trading this way for at least the first 2 to 3 months. I recommend a toolbox consisting of at the most three Indicators.
Markus Heitkoetter

A successful trader is one who is able to apply proven methods with a success rate of about 70%. In fact, some successful traders are very profitable even with a 60% success rate.
Yeo Keong Hee

We should always respect the presence of support and resistance levels on a price chart; they represent "invisible forces" that tend to repel prices away from them.
Yeo Keong Hee

Successful trading is often about uncovering tendencies in our trading behaviour that originate from the subconscious mind.
Yeo Keong Hee

Successful trading is often about uncovering tendencies in our trading behaviour that originate from the subconscious mind.
Yeo Keong Hee

The trader who masters all three—-technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and risk management-—is truly a “triple threat” trader.
Ed Ponsi

Achieving a goal of just 1 percent per month would put you well ahead of most traders, since the majority of traders lose money. While a goal of 2 percent per month may not sound awe inspiring, if we can achieve it consistently, the annual gain will be just shy of 27 percent—and you’ll have outperformed most mutual funds and hedge funds........By the time you work your way up to consistent monthly returns of 3 percent and then 4 percent, you’ll be putting up respectable numbers, and you’ll have gained the benefit of months of experience. If you can achieve consistent monthly gains of 5 percent or 6 percent, you will have truly joined the elite.--Ed Ponsi

An important factor of trading success lies in the matching of Method with the trader’s own personality and trading style.
Grace Cheng

The key is to make your overall trading approach meaningful but to make any individual trade meaningless.
Boris Schlossberg

reading all this from global legends and veterans is so encouraging and confidence boosting and endorsing. it's like they are telling me all this face to face....

It really should not take more than 30 minutes a day to evaluate all markets, and it could take only 10 to 15 if you can really focus on the markets instead of your opinions about the markets. All you need to trade on a position basis is a few minutes at the end of the market day to place your orders for the next day.
Bill Williams

If you are totally new to the markets, you may expect a learning curve of one to a few months. Our goal is 10 percent per month ROI. That is more than 300 percent per year.
Bill Williams

One of the reasons institutional traders succeed better than does the average trader is that they have much more capital behind them. They can and do make the same mistakes but don’t have to worry that one mistake will end their careers; with capital and management behind them, they can survive those mistakes.
Marcel Link

Every day you’ll get one or two situations that look and feel great. Just be patient and wait for them; there is no need to try to beat the market all day long.
Marcel Link

Saturday, February 6, 2016

zen and the art of stock trading (a whatsapp chat) (oct 15)

 Js : Imo, we are in sell on rise bearish positional stage. around half rally over from time span pov, not magnitude...
Sanket Netherlands: JS Ji couldn't get it...
Js: on 2nd dec, i had shared my opinion that rally is over, yellow for down market. i expected the down rally to start one two days later. but, to my somewhat surprise, it started immediately and with a bang. my understanding is that whenever the rally reverses sharply like this and with the options spread as that on 2nd dec, it indicates the start of a range......
Js: presently we are, technically, in a down trend. but if we club it with the above mentioned opinion that range is likely to be maintained, i expect volatility. i couldn't take shorts then. i won't now. i expect a sharp move up in a few days. that can be loosely said...dead cat bounce also. but that won't be the start of up trend which seems a few days away....probably mid of next week.....hope i have not left u confused...if so, would like to clarify....
Sanket Netherlands: Crystal clear view
prakashji: absolutely clear
Js: over the years, i have realised that it is difficult and exhausting to try and catch both sides of the trade....both buying and selling side....especially in positional trading......and nothing wrong if u don't punish yourself for that....
Js: i love to take rest for some days when i miss the bus instead of running after it
: i don't fear when i am on the sidelines...and this helps in spotting and learning the games markets play
: recently i have brought some change in my trades.....
: not in terms of the method or system but the instruments...
: the change was basically brought in to counter the loss of premium (in options) during range bound days.
: now a days, i use the same method/system.....and when the system says "buy", instead of shopping for nifty options, i buy stocks in "cash n carry".....amount almost same as the exposure value of nifty options.......
: this way, i am no longer losing premium when market doesn't move for many range days which i fail to foresee (probably no one can)
: and how do i choose those stocks?
: well, primarily good a and b group stocks plus the ones which my broker hdfc securities keeps spamming me....
: when i get the "buy" signal, i open the charts of all these candidate stocks and shortlist the ones which have fallen the most and fallen the least during the down move. i distribute my entire "dollar brigade" 50-50 in both these camps.....
: eg. recently i chose idea and sbi.....on 19th...among other stocks....
: sbi because it had fallen the least from 13 oct to 18 nov and idea because it had fallen the most
: idea gave me around 7% and sbi 5%+.....more than the market
: i took all out on 2nd afternoon....expecting down trend in 1-2 days but it crashed within hours....
: i'm not complaining though
+91 xxxxx xx331: Based on this u say when up move comes - the stock which has fallen most should give decent returns and the stock which has not fallen much should reach higher highs. sir ji - IMO trick here is choosing the stocks
Js : yes, sandeep, one half the trick is finding right time to buy
: and the other half is picking the stocks
Xxxxx xx331: Please do share these sort of things - it is really interesting to analyse and fun too
Js: i'm not bothering about sbi NOW shishirji......because this round was over on 2nd, when the new buy signal comes, i will fish/shortlist/hunt for stocks for that ride afresh as per the criteria i shared above
Js: no permanent friendship or animosity with any stock....just pure logic/opportunism
: shorting i do only with nifty puts....unfortunately/incidentally i didn't get opportunity this time (on 2nd dec)
: no stop loss in stocks....
: whats the harm in holding a good stock even otherwise
xxxxx xx577: Means if u find nifty weak and feels downside than u will not trade stocks and.will do in puts
Js: yes
: up=stocks, down=puts
: idea was moving even when nifty wasn't.....
: and nifty exit signal emerged much earlier than those in the charts of these stocks....
Xxxxx xx577: U might face same problem what u face in calls   I mean eating premium😇
Js : bessides, going by the elliot wave logic, falls are 3 times faster and for 3 times lesser duration than rise. so buying puts is safer than buying calls on respective sides. because puts premium erosion is much slower, as it happens faster and u r in for lesser time
MM: Safe method if nifty will go up most stocks will go up 👍🏻
Xxxxx xx331: Pretty good strategy sir ji
MM: And good logic for nifty options
Js: from 19nov to 2 dec, it took 8 days to climb 200 points, but it took just 3-4 days to loose that all from 2 dec to 4-5dec
MM: True
Js: yes....but the beta has to be positive.....i.e. the stocks which move in nity's direction....
: eg i will not risk IT stocks, Oil and Gas Stocks, FMCG
Xxxxx xx577: Only bank stocks most of times. Like sbi axis hdfc
Js: yes, banks are safest...beta is high
: but u have to peep out of the banking window to locate stocks which yield max swing during up moves...
Xxxxx xx331: JS JI - u meant beta should be correlated with Nifty movement
Js: yes...... i still remember a statement by shankar sharma that while ADAG group stocks are not the best fundamentally, they make superb trading stocks because of their big moves
: experience tells us which stocks move in tandem with nifty more often.....any doubts, u can do backtesting for any particular stocks
: airline stocks are also good trading bets, though risky investments
: same about sugar stocks
: these are badmaash shareef stocks....from trading pov
: historically, i have made more money trading in stocks than trading in nifty
Js: however, nifty is easier to predict than stocks.....many reasons for that
: not a bad idea to use indicators/system/method to predict nifty and then use the nifty indication to trrade stocks
: don't want leverage tension
: i prefer buying sbi stock for a few years than putting the same money in the same bank for the same period in savings account
: that, in my opinion and understanding, is the essence of investing
: in trading, if u r not in hurry, u reach early....self talk
: in trading learning never stops....self talk
: what we call learning, is infact, continuous adaptation to newer/changing/emerging realities....self talk
: positional trading is so slow and boring that i have nothing to share for days at a stretch...frankly
deepak: IMO ...EUREKA of a chat....  these are bonus chats.....Thanks Jagmohanji.... ( Sandeep for anchoring it to perfection )
Js: buying opportunity comes 1-2 times every month (positionally), on an average, speaking from my experience....js
: in a way, i like it gives me a lot of time to live "the life"
: most of the times, i (am happy to) see situations/developments in the market passing by my positional tra(in)de...
: long ago i read the book "zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance".......
: it could easily have been "zen and the art of stock market trading"
: sometimes, i ponder that i may not retire richer from the stock market in terms of money but definitely a multimillionaire in terms of "life" i learnt/earned in the process
Xxxxx xx331: Truly agree
Js: if trading is changing u for good, u r trading right!!!
: even if u r losing some money
Xxxxx xx331: But in that process u become rich - hehehehe
Js: i will just stick to the method shared above irrespective of whether it is sbi or
: abi, bbi, cbi, dbi long as it is a group a or b "good" stock
: i am anyway going to forgive and forget any particular stock once one cycle/wave is over...

: u r , though , right in asking about sbi from probably medium to longer pov, for which i'm not the right guy to ask