Js : Imo, we are in sell
on rise bearish positional stage. around half rally over from time span pov,
not magnitude...
Sanket Netherlands: JS Ji couldn't get it...
Js: on 2nd dec, i had shared my opinion that rally is
over, yellow for down market. i expected the down rally to start one two days
later. but, to my somewhat surprise, it started immediately and with a bang. my
understanding is that whenever the rally reverses sharply like this and with
the options spread as that on 2nd dec, it indicates the start of a range......
Js: presently we are, technically, in a down trend. but
if we club it with the above mentioned opinion that range is likely to be
maintained, i expect volatility. i couldn't take shorts then. i won't now. i
expect a sharp move up in a few days. that can be loosely said...dead cat
bounce also. but that won't be the start of up trend which seems a few days
away....probably mid of next week.....hope i have not left u confused...if so,
would like to clarify....
Sanket Netherlands: Crystal clear view
prakashji: absolutely clear
Js: over the years, i have realised that it is
difficult and exhausting to try and catch both sides of the trade....both
buying and selling side....especially in positional trading......and nothing
wrong if u don't punish yourself for that....
Js: i love to take rest for some days when i miss the
bus instead of running after it
: i don't fear when i am on the sidelines...and this
helps in spotting and learning the games markets play
: recently i have brought some change in my trades.....
: not in terms of the method or system but the
instruments...
: the change was basically brought in to counter the
loss of premium (in options) during range bound days.
: now a days, i use the same method/system.....and when
the system says "buy", instead of shopping for nifty options, i buy
stocks in "cash n carry".....amount almost same as the exposure value
of nifty options.......
: this way, i am no longer losing premium when market
doesn't move for many range days which i fail to foresee (probably no one can)
: and how do i choose those stocks?
: well, primarily good a and b group stocks plus the
ones which my broker hdfc securities keeps spamming me....
: when i get the "buy" signal, i open the
charts of all these candidate stocks and shortlist the ones which have fallen
the most and fallen the least during the down move. i distribute my entire
"dollar brigade" 50-50 in both these camps.....
: eg. recently i chose idea and sbi.....on 19th...among
other stocks....
: sbi because it had fallen the least from 13 oct to 18
nov and idea because it had fallen the most
: idea gave me around 7% and sbi 5%+.....more than the
market
: i took all out on 2nd afternoon....expecting down
trend in 1-2 days but it crashed within hours....
: i'm not complaining though
+91 xxxxx xx331: Based on this u say when up move comes
- the stock which has fallen most should give decent returns and the stock
which has not fallen much should reach higher highs. sir ji - IMO trick
here is choosing the stocks
Js : yes, sandeep, one half the trick is finding right
time to buy
: and the other half is picking the stocks
Xxxxx xx331: Please do share these sort of things - it
is really interesting to analyse and fun too
Js: i'm not bothering about sbi NOW
shishirji......because this round was over on 2nd dec....now, when the new buy
signal comes, i will fish/shortlist/hunt for stocks for that ride afresh as per
the criteria i shared above
Js: no permanent friendship or animosity with any
stock....just pure logic/opportunism
: shorting i do only with nifty
puts....unfortunately/incidentally i didn't get opportunity this time (on 2nd
dec)
: no stop loss in stocks....
: whats the harm in holding a good stock even otherwise
xxxxx xx577: Means if u find nifty weak and feels
downside than u will not trade stocks and.will do in puts
Js: yes
: up=stocks, down=puts
: idea was moving even when nifty wasn't.....
: and nifty exit signal emerged much earlier than those
in the charts of these stocks....
Xxxxx xx577: U might face same problem what u face in
calls I mean eating premium😇
Js : bessides, going by the elliot wave logic, falls
are 3 times faster and for 3 times lesser duration than rise. so buying puts is
safer than buying calls on respective sides. because puts premium erosion is
much slower, as it happens faster and u r in for lesser time
MM: Safe method if nifty will go up most stocks will go
up 👍🏻
Xxxxx xx331: Pretty good strategy sir ji
MM: And good logic for nifty options
Js: from 19nov to 2 dec, it took 8 days to climb 200
points, but it took just 3-4 days to loose that all from 2 dec to 4-5dec
MM: True
Js: yes....but the beta has to be positive.....i.e. the
stocks which move in nity's direction....
: eg i will not risk IT stocks, Oil and Gas Stocks,
FMCG
Xxxxx xx577: Only bank stocks most of times. Like sbi
axis hdfc
Js: yes, banks are safest...beta is high
: but u have to peep out of the banking window to
locate stocks which yield max swing during up moves...
Xxxxx xx331: JS JI - u meant beta should be correlated
with Nifty movement
Js: yes...... i still remember a statement by shankar
sharma that while ADAG group stocks are not the best fundamentally, they make
superb trading stocks because of their big moves
: experience tells us which stocks move in tandem with
nifty more often.....any doubts, u can do backtesting for any particular stocks
: airline stocks are also good trading bets, though
risky investments
: same about sugar stocks
: these are badmaash shareef stocks....from trading pov
: historically, i have made more money trading in
stocks than trading in nifty
Js: however, nifty is easier to predict than
stocks.....many reasons for that
: not a bad idea to use indicators/system/method to
predict nifty and then use the nifty indication to trrade stocks
: don't want leverage tension
: i prefer buying sbi stock for a few years than
putting the same money in the same bank for the same period in savings account
: that, in my opinion and understanding, is the essence
of investing
: in trading, if u r not in hurry, u reach
early....self talk
: in trading learning never stops....self talk
: what we call learning, is infact, continuous
adaptation to newer/changing/emerging realities....self talk
: positional trading is so slow and boring that i have
nothing to share for days at a stretch...frankly
deepak: IMO ...EUREKA of a chat.... these are bonus chats.....Thanks
Jagmohanji.... ( Sandeep for anchoring it to perfection )
Js: buying opportunity comes 1-2 times every month
(positionally), on an average, speaking from my experience....js
: in a way, i like it.....as it gives me a lot of time
to live "the life"
: most of the times, i (am happy to) see
situations/developments in the market passing by my positional tra(in)de...
: long ago i read the book "zen and the art of
motorcycle maintenance".......
: it could easily have been "zen and the art of
stock market trading"
: sometimes, i ponder that i may not retire richer from
the stock market in terms of money but definitely a multimillionaire in terms
of "life" i learnt/earned in the process
Xxxxx xx331: Truly agree
Js: if trading is changing u for good, u r trading
right!!!
: even if u r losing some money
Xxxxx xx331: But in that process u become rich -
hehehehe
Js: i will just stick to the method shared above
irrespective of whether it is sbi or
: abi, bbi, cbi, dbi or.....sbi......as long as it is a
group a or b "good" stock
: i am anyway going to forgive and forget any
particular stock once one cycle/wave is over...
: u r , though , right in asking about sbi from
probably medium to longer pov, for which i'm not the right guy to ask
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