If your opponent knows your surrender point, he will exploit it.
Stoploss points, therefore, should be in mind, not in system IMHO, unless you're scalping or there is some other compelling argument.
They can see it!
Even otherwise, sudden moves are known to open jump stop losses
trading is like a property dealer or used car sale/purchase business.
you often get only 1-2 clients in a day...sometimes in a week. most of those opportunities are not juicy, there isn't enough risk reward in your favour. you have to say "no" to most of them. if you say "yes" to every trade that comes your way, you are not a trader, someone has "traded" with you.
but every now and then you come across a genuine trade that has risk reward ratio tilted in your favour. that trade should be taken and remaining left. boredom is the cost of safety from loss.....self talk
Trading is a 80/20 game. If you miss the 20% chance of winning the pounds, you struggle for remaining 80% time for pennies…
Therefore you have to have a top-class system which catches edges reasonably accurately, you’ve to have discipline and mental condition to stick to that system and survive that 80% uncertainty to catch that 20%.
If you miss the meat, you’re left with the bare bones.
the game is squeezed in that 20% portion, your system should be capable of pointing out the high probability zone of that 20%. Otherwise, you will keep struggling for the consistency.
Same is true for investing.
trade only one side (for a day/swing/trend/day/time period) based on the judgement of the trend direction)
either buy on dips or sell on rise
avoid both side trades
nothing confuses and forces wrong trades like both side trade
losses of wrong judgement are half or less when you take trades only on one direction...
if your one side trade is failing, most likely the trend is on the other side... a good system spots that before trading.
Let me share an observation. Any big rise or fall is actually in two parts, like a movie with interval.
Check any sharp spike or crash on any chart. Chances are you will see that there was a kink or pause in the chart near 50% mark. Between 40-60%.
Pl do check
So whenever any sharp move comes dare to shun FOMO and jump on, of course only that much amount you can afford to lose. Strong chances you entered near midway
Standard disclaimer: not a recommendation 😅
markets are part of politics...look at US markets...no president gets elected/reelected, if markets dont do well.... when trump demanded rate cut last month, the almost sure rate cut was delayed by the Fed as they wanted to cut it for the incumbant president but didn't want it to be done coinciding with trump demand
andre minassian, my idol, has openly said it time and again. he never uses charts, but trades on the basis of understanding chess position and vested interests. i strongly recommend his interview series given to ukspreadbetting.... he has given almost no interview before or after, but in this series, he has spilled all beans
https://youtu.be/VUtp5KVR09o?si=3l6GEPzzWhfKQSrL
in trading log kya kahenge doesn't matter
nobody is going to share his profit or your loss
all associations are situational and conditional, and till they are pleasant.
ekla chalo
in trading you can never sure of the outcome of the trade. never. there is always some uncertainty.
but you can't be indecisive and shaky.... fearing, vibrating, panicking all the time, fiddling with the trade direction.
you have to bet. and have guts to stick to it.
you have to be ok with losing. only that will give you the guts to be worthy claimant of profit, handsome profit.
and since you have to be ok with loss, you have to manage the risk. can't be foolish gambler.
never swim naked.
atleast never trade naked.
if you are long, instead of buying 2 or 20 lots buy 3ce:1pe pr 30ce:10pe (or in that ratio). always trade hedged. that way, you use more funds, ofcourse, and a bit more in premium decay, but that is the insurance against trades gone wrong or adverse bluff moves.
always trade with a hedge...same instrument is advisable for amateurs. professionals have more sharp options.
don't hesitate to skim or book adverse moves, if and when they come.
however, this strategy is only if you have a trading system, you know when and why to enter or exit, in which direction is the high probability. if you don't know that or don't know what to do in case of an adverse move, then hedging won't save you much. you have to find ways to recover cost of the hedging insurance.
i, per se, never trade naked. swimming i'm learning. bathing naked is ok.
don't hold yourself responsible for what market does or doesn't
never feel guilty about that.
that is not in your hand.
the only thing that is in your hand is, deciding what shot to play to the ball pitched at you by the market.
you play stroke not as per your wish but as per the ball.
the day you make trading a system based mechanized assembly line
and you are making consistent profit, both sides,
and are free from any anxiety,
you have turned a pro...priod
every trading day or trade swing, like a chess game has a opening game, middle game and end game....
the opening just sets the tone
and end game just ruthlessly stretches, extends or finishes the win or lose,
but it is the middle game which is tedious, heavy, boring and demanding. that is the real test of a trader....that's where the outcome gets manufactured or shattered. patience and skill is required. the bets need to be let mature or adjusted.
can you fly a plane in zero visibility?
yes, if you have instruments with the technology.
can u trade without seeing price?
yes, if you have "technicals" technology.
i know some traders who keep price view "off" and trade only by seeing technicals. what they check for is of another level.
emotionless trading based on instruments.
can't spot or be sure of the start of the trend?
don't worry....look for the end of the previous trend.
new trends start only after the end of the previous one.
this reverse way to looking for a new trend (with stoploss, ofcourse) is the alternative and less erroneous way of finding a new trend.
well, you eyes tell you
still, if you want to check it with some method, here is the one i use
assume there are 4 chart timelines
1) 1 min chart= child
2) 5 min chart = father
3) 15 min chart = grandfather
4) 30 min chart = great grandfather
the trend of the more aged is the trend.
eg if 1 min child chart sma trend is up and 5 min father chart sma trend is down, it is most likely a down trend, a sell on rise trend, for short or immediate term, atleast
sma trend means = whether price is above or below sma, whether smaller sma is higher or lower than larger sma. eg. if 15 sma is below 50 sma, trend is down.
checking of the higher generation sma trend is a good way of checking the trend.
take trade timed by smaller generation chart but in line with the trend of the higher generation sma
taking trade pro-trend is less risky than against trend.
forget about profit or loss of money
is your system prediction in profit or loss, that's the point
who wins if system is wrong
and who loses if system is right
if you are happy at profit, you will be sad at loss.
if you are in indifferent or nonchalant about profit, you will be understanding of the loss.
being conscious of profit makes you fearful of losing it
being conscious of loss makes you more fearful of losing more.
being conscious of the process is important
look at the mental stability of the shooters in olympics... calm and stable...
standard advisory : trade 3 times less than what u can afford to lose.
There are 5 trading approaches
1. Technical
2. Fundamental
3. Guts
4. Emotional
5. Lottery
6. Copying
1st is best
3rd and 5th are ok
2nd, 4th & 6th are worst
Fundamentals are taken advantage of by operators. For trading, fundamentals are traps. Stocks fall on good results and rise on bad. Prices precede fundamentals.
Fundamentals are just rumours or sentiments most of the time.
What’s the fundamentals of market right now. Already into bubble. But this bubble may become football
All tactics and bluffs of operators reflect in charts. Yes bank fall was clearly visible just before fall. So was Satyam. You’ll be shocked, even covid fall was visible before the fall.
Trading = technicals + gaming
one way to book profit without coming out of the position (eg when trend is likely to continue but you want to take some profit off the table to feel comfortable and secure)
replace the costlier option with cheaper one....
eg assume you bought a BN call of 500 points...it becomes 800 or 900 or 1000.... it would be wise to book it and replace it with current BN call around 500 points.
no doubt, current 500 point call may rise slower than 1000 point call but profits will still keep trickling in if trend continues. the slight reduction in profit may be considered as the cost of insurance for peace and profit booking.
this tactic is like climbing a mountain cliff with progressively hooking oneself to higher harness.
this tactic has 2 more advantages
1. you now have money (out of thin air) to buy more positions if market steps back before resuming the trend.
2. if at all market reverses, you have your initial deployment safe.
of course, this tactic is valid for options only. which i anyways consider best for amateur traders because it is affordable for them and has inbuilt stop loss unlike futures.
also, to add that standard advise, trade with 3 times smaller trade size than you can easily afford. if you trade with small quantity (3 times less than what you can easily afford), you can become fearless trader who doesn't chicken out amid volatility, and who can trade the method till the end of trade's logic.
if your method is right even small trade size will make you rich, sooner than you think. and if your method is wrong, even larger bet size won't help. that will make you poor, that too, sooner than you think....
i know most old traders knew this, even better than this....just thought i should share for new traders. besides, when i write it down, it helps in revision.
assume there are 4 chart timelines
1) 1 min chart= grandchild
2) 5 min chart = child
3) 15 min chart = father
4) 30 min chart = grandfather
buy on the basis of child chart, when price cuts sma 50 from below IF price is above sma 15 in father chart. with stop loss as the points when price cuts child or father chart respective sma mentioned above.
similarly, you can make strategy for short trades.
this strategy is for short term trading.
i know of some retired para commandos who can tackle any hound with bare hands and any big cat with just one stick. similarly, i also know some traders who trade with just sticks of sma....the simple the strategy, the better.... complexity confuses
standard disclosure : no responsibility of the outcome. pl consult certified financial advisor before trading. always trade small which you can afford to lose without losing sleep. trader discretion advised
if you trade with small quantity (3 times less than what you can easily afford), you can become fearless trader who doesn't chicken out amid volatility, and who can trade the method till the end of trade's logic.
if your method is right even small trade size will make you rich, sooner than you think. and if your method is wrong, even larger bet size won't help. that will make you poor, that too, sooner than you think.
go slow to go fast.
i have seen that many traders avoid taking overnight positions. they fear btst or stbt.
while i respect their logic or decision, i am of the strong opinion that btst or stbt are the best trading opportunities especially in mature markets where operators find lesser ways to shoo off not-so-dumb retail traders.
so, gap up or gap downs are the preferred modes of market moves for operators.
you might notice, in mature markets like US, most market movements happen overnight. markets are comparatively quieter and range bound during the trading hours.
overnight positions are good for retail traders as well for another reason. since they can't do anything while the market is closed, they can't fiddle with position due to emotions. the patience is forced. that way full outcome of trade is ensured. you don't lose more and profit less. the loss or profit is as per full potential of that trade for that time.
everything depends upon the direction of trade taken at close. not on fundamental level, but on technical level reflected in charts.
only caution, and a big one.... trade small quantity that you can afford to lose, with the one you can sleep with a sweet smile of cute gamble....
i know some fellow traders who do only btst/stbt....rest of the time.....till 3pm, say, they are free, whistling....
btst/stbt is one of the most bang-for-the-time-buck way of trading.
two more things....first, clear btst/stbt setup may not be there everyday... but then, there is no compulsion to trade. second, btst/stbt trade is not valid a few minutes before close and a few minutes after opening. out of that zone, other factors are at play.
one more bonus idea...if the btst/stbt outcome is still a negative surprise, the move post that pro-trend may be tried.
just sharing my thoughts. your discretion and expert opinion advised. those weak in technical analysis shouldn't attempt btst/stbt.
if we have the habit of not having Stop Losses (SL), why do we have habit of taking Stop Profits (SP)....we should be indisciplined both sides...
that's one of the key reasons why even traders with 50% success rate end up losing 90% money
unfortunately, fear works both side....instead of fear on the loss side, and greed on the long side....
ironically, traders have fear on profit side and greed on loss side...
trading is 90% psychology and risk control
risk control = the warrior who knows he can't die can fight much better and win more frequently....self talk
In Stock trading
No logic➡️no bet
No bet➡️no progress
You can’t feel good without getting used to feeling terrible. It’s like developing intestines of steel without being stupid
एक आग का दरिया है
और डूब के जाना है
The day you start doing trading like a job where your boss will fire you if you don’t follow the rules, you’ll start being successful at it
The day you accept the limitations of trading you’ll start improving
Treat as if you are on basic wage with everything above it as incentive, which can be anything small to big to v big. Taking trading as a job is not a bad idea. Takes off all pressure.
theoretically there are 10
- north
- south
- east
- west
- northeast
- southeast
- northwest
- southwest
- into the screen
- out of the screen (to hit you!)
but in practice, it has only two directions to its disposal
either north or south...rest all are trader's fears induced by market fluctuations and bluffs.
every trader has 50% straight chance of making profit (1/2)
versus 2.7% in roulette (1/35)
it is understandable why roulette casino players are losing 97.3%, but what is the reason behind 80-90% loss of a stock market traders?
it is... fiddling
...due to fear of loss, pressure of bet size...
if any trader was to trade without applying mind, with all parameters fixed, then he/she is likely to win 50% in the long run... things start slipping below 50% when that dumb trader tries to be smart on emotions instead of logic or system. market induced emotions as well as self-inflicted emotions.
market forces have no power to beat the trader except emotions... be it through sharp move or bluff or both...
most traders can't stand the loss (because of bet size, and lack of logic of trade, defined entry exits) and hence lose frequently.
decide, on the basis of your trading system where the market or stock is going to go, as per what timeline, take bet size which you can afford to lose if all goes wrong (which wont go wrong that often as system improves), decide a stoploss (which should be the point where the logic behind your trade would seem to no longer hold), and take the trade.... after that, expect market to do all kind of bluffs and hold your trade tight (ofcourse till your stoploss definition above)...
only logic-based system with some edge can take you above 50% chance of profit... all the way upto 60-70-80%...or more... (the higher you go, the more challenging it is)
most of the times, if not always, markets and stocks go in the direction they are pre-decided to go (on various timelines).
once you take a trade, exit only if your target comes or stop loss is hit, don't touch it in any other condition.
example = suppose you decide to take a long trade when price cuts sma 34 from below (say)(after closing candle), then one possible logical SL will be when price cuts it from above (after closing candle).
similarly, if you take a long trade if rsi has given a bullish divergence, then u hold the trade till bullish divergence doesn't melt away, whatever the price... till bullish divergence is there, long trade is valid.
price SL is risky because it is visible to everyone and is very basic logic. also, because some vibration in price is bound to happen.
--
we should not add to positions ever once trade is initiated. when we add position, it should be considered a totally new trade depending upon setup at that time
in most cases, trade goes your way within "short time" of your taking the trade. you can "feel" it. you can also feel and tell if it isn't going your way,....of course, you still need to stick to SL, but your gut feeling tells you that you perhaps have entered a bit too soon, even before proper signal.
if your SL is hit once or twice despite system, it is ok. but more than that it is a signal that you tweak your system.
SL needs calibration
1 day tick chart=super trend
1 hour tick chart=trend (positional)
15min tick chart=trade (swing)*
5 min tick chart=time**
1 min tick chart=timing***
* indicates what trade is coming or is being played out
** best for trade trigger
*** for exact timing
what's the minimum amount you should have to be a successful stock-market trader
my video link
https://youtu.be/ejQjFHRf0LU
(719) Friday Trainers - YouTube
song of the sparrow
origin of universe (not really a big bang)
excellent! Well done! Thank you!
why 95% lose in stock market?
hi beautiful!
13 secrets of mentally trong people
flowers of the ashes
the weight of bullets
social anxiety disorder
last and final call?
the fountain of joy
real vs artificial intelligence
tunne of success
what's your value
7 stages of compounding magic in life
chess of life, tabe tennis if information
toothbrush, mobiles and targets
9 laws of jackpot
my children don’t give me their books
the third answer
everything is psychological
the invisible pigeons
when honest, hungry, smart people smile!
what your shoes tell about you
the shortest interview
the missing word from professor's dictionary
the reality of business marriages 9why lergers and acquisitions fail)
why are you like that!
the music of life
the foundation of foundation
world's most accurate watch
that anonymous letter
right time to pray
gold standard of self respect
don't kill them just because…
gold standard of honesty
india, israel, pakistan, singapore
stones, river and cosmos
1 longcut, 2 shortcuts out of stress
say yes or no clearly
masterkey to mental control
life lessons from poetry
prasad se autopsy tak….(that child of 1975)
why things go wrong (lessons from murphy's law)
AI and the illusion of death
3 milestones of success
good business, bad business (the power of demand and supply)
how to learn patience
the book that made me fall in love with economics
4 types of self images
how to stop worrying - 3 magical lines
the liberating cocktail of logic and emotions
poem or prayer, poem of courage
4 benefits of prayer
strategy and tactics
he taught me the secret of letting go
two years and a hyphen
opening the closed doors
how you react decides what life does to you
5 qualities you need to have to reach the top
unemployment, self-employment and sales profession
whenever you fall in life, play this game
the revolution we can't afford to miss
13 principles of HR
toffees and forgiveness
4 types of motivation
why I avoid road rage
evan, andre, boris
how much of you are still there? (paradox of ship of theseus)
the waterfall philosophy
turbines and wings
destiny has its own ways
sanctum santorum and you
google, youtube and life
the shoe in the head
calender motivation
the half time
the climax of your story
point of reference
saying no to biscuits
who's thinking
wu wei principle
12 life lessons from circket
the violin players of titanic
the icecream philosophy
why doctor's don’t cry
you will not do it***
thodi dard hogi magar
the fortune tellers
how ready are you for difficult times
kavi kya kehna chah raha hai
not me, my software
9 passwords of happiness
facing dangers para commando way
humans are basically good
secrets of effective managers
365 days holiday
when destiny whispers, turn back
why people fail after promotion (peter principle)
*** the hillary steps of your life
the power of delegation : why hiring experts is key to business success
the generator king
10 crazy tips for time management
you will never miss an appointment, son!
never leave anything imcomplete
today's decisions, tomorrow's reality
inside the mind of a chief
the sage advice
the curse of "log kya kehenge"
find what you love and let it kill you
action lene se chinta girti hai
you teach people how to treat you
keep your desk clean
how to be happy
common mind principle
that tiny little voice
his glass is always half empty
pilot that made many engineers
"don’t call me sir!"
best wedding gift
the wrinkled shirt
2 qualities for guaranteed success
life tree in a coffee can
"stop thinking, end your problems"
2 qualities of good managers/leaders
circle of observation
the phantom limb (healing from the past)
a strange solution for everything : life lessons from cricket
stay inside the car
are you a good cricket player? (life lessons from cricket)
goal setting
life lesson on a Sunday
the power of confession
the invisible painting
magic of going back to the roots
life lesson from a dentist friend
side effects of graduation
will you sink with the ship?
don’t keep the dog and bark yourself!
why people hate sales and marketing
partnerships - life lessons from cricket
are you a developed country
waiting for door of the car to open
3 life philosophies HRTC driver taught me
nightwatchman - life lessons from cricket
what happens when we try to solve problems?
when a waitor helped VP save the company
turning radius of life
the promise of day-after-tomorrow
how they spot future star employees
robert sir's game of surrender
becoming mentally bullet proof
13 steps to time management
are you a graduate? What does it mean?
her one line changed my view about life
3 super qualities for grand success
how to write a book
how to deal with a abully
why read books and how to read them fast
preparing for interview, overcoming fear, recaliming confidence
my video summing up my experience and views
https://youtu.be/sKRsfVUXoT4
