holy gamble (28 aug)

trading is probabilistic, not deterministic

there is no surety or guarantee, only chances which good traders smell better than others.

if there was surety everyone will trade in one direction and there will be no trades and hence no stock market.

i used "gamble" only in a lighter vein. there is little gamble in what i do (self talk)

once, a stunt man from hollywood had said in an interview "only a fool stunt man will do a stunt without adequate safety precaution"

it applies more so in trading.....

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as a general rule, i don't trade intraday EXCEPT on expiry day, if opportunity is there.
just bought 8000PE aug lots @ 40.25 avg price

in the absence of itchguard (26 aug morng)

it is confirmed...absolutely no bearish signal

though more slide expected in coming days, it is just the dodging till expiry.

till then, we are in range

no positional trade zone

intraday puntering allowed in the absence of itchguard



"if you want to trade daily, then , in most likelihood, you are a trade not a trader"

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27aug, 12:49pm
so the traders are doing what they hinted that they will do = "do nothing"
except for 50-70 point against-the-trend downside, there is little left on the table to trade till expiry.
no trader can create an opportunity which the operators don't like

well left!!!

"the market seems locked near 7970 or around that. operators lose a lot by taking market above that." (nifty talk 23 aug)

today, market made high of 7968 spot and collapsed

"technicals know that news is coming" they say!!!

interesting!

such trading opportunities are mouthwatering poisons.......they are there but not to be taken

volatility seems such a demoralisingly missed opportunity, but in effect, it is a deadly outswinger well left.

operators lay such traps to snatch the gold chains around ur neck.

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today's second half sharp slide is bad news for bullish march of the series.

since technicals indicate more/followthrough slide in coming days, the upswing is effectively halted for the time being.

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technicals also confirm that this is only a pause in the up trend, not a threat to it as of now

i will be looking for a specific signal in the first half tomorrow to check a highly unlikely indication of start of downside. (still, for academic reason, no harm in anticipating a theoretical possibility)

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if the above mentioned unlikely signal doesn't come, i will be looking to buy at dips in the new series.

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as of now, expecting expiry around 7900....

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in a nutshell, in a no trade zone...... absolutely no short trade opportunity as of now....long trade paused.

80% of the money is made in 20% of the time.

rest time is a honey trap.

must take select trades (2-4, based on experience) only. money u make is more important than the number of trades. 

nifty talk

dear friends,

feeling quite good to start participating in the forum after a very long time.

i received a wonderful message from one of the friends which has prompted me to start punching keys and restart sharing.

i have been trading all these months and have continuously been evolving my trading method (gosh...how much it can evolve is a shocker!!!)

but, as of now, the method has reached a fairly advance/evolved stage.....

though i will not be sharing the method (sincere, frank but firm apologies for the same) i feel like sharing it indirectly.

i will be regularly sharing my analyses of the situation as per my understanding and method.

i will be also be sharing, and this might be of good value for all friends, my take on the nifty swing trend as on time. (here, i am not talking of intraday/short term trends but trends good for swing/positional trades)

based on this, i usually take 1 to 3 trades per month, rarely more or less. i trade only in nifty options, nothing else. (money doesn't know or care where it comes from)

i won't be sharing my trades (entry/exit/amount) so that i enjoy my trades without any undue influence, the views that i will share will be fairly clear as to where i see the opportunity. but i am quite sure, my friends will be shocked/pleasantly surprised to see the tricks and nuiances and bluffs and strategies of the games operators play! 

these sharings shall only be for learning/friendly sharing and are not recommendations/tips/advise/calls etc. please trade on your own analyses/discretion.

hope u will be appreciate the sharings in the right spirit, will encourage and be sportive!

would welcome ur questions thru email : jagmohanshan@gmail.com

best wishes

Jagmohan

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23 aug

there was a clear signal on 11th morning of the upswing in nifty, and it has unfolded accordingly.

early this week (18th-20th) it was apprehended that range bound movement might set in so that operators may eat options premium which was high for the number of days left for expiry. 4 days of rangebound movement thereafter is not surprising, therefore.

i see a very interesting thing. in the money calls are still at a handsome premium while in the money puts are at a discount!!! clearly indicating that operators have bullsih gameplan.

as of now, the uptrend is clearly intact.

NO BEARISH SIGNAL. all shorts, in my opinion are very risky (risk reward ratio is negative for puts as of now)

the market seems locked near 7970 or around that. operators lose a lot by taking market above that.

i expect range bound movement till thursday (expiry). any sharp dip will be a chance to exit shorts and go long at the start of the next series.

however, there will be chances of entering long side. i am presently out of the market, having booked on 18th.

there will be considerable drop in sep series premium in next 4-5 days atleast. these are the times to sit out and watch.

80% of the money is made in 20% of the time......and this is the 20% money time. won't be greedy.

i will be waiting for buying at big dips......and if big dips don't come in next week, i will anyhow be willing to go long when resumption signal is there......

....waiting cooly........watching with half open studied eyes.....

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