Tuesday, December 8, 2020

what operators have seen beyond covid and why

when a patient sick for 6 months get s a little better, his meals jump in quantity versus when he was sick and couldn't and didn't want to eat due to sickness. this sudden smart jump in the diet is temporary. something like our economy witnessed in october/november. 

but it will be a big mistake to fail to look beyond this temporary increase in the diet which is the initial crisis survival reaction.

the patient is recovering and by now he has just taken in the "emergency" supply as a knee-jerk, fight back natural measure to bounce from critically low levels.

as he recuperates some more and recovers from reserve and ICU levels, his body would want to stand up, get ok and go to work.

there would be a lot of weight to be gained for a normal life. it is inevitable that this deficiency suffered and accumulated for several months is overcome, systematically or in a stampede.

this is what is suspected and expected from the economy in 2021.

and since markets precede the economy by 6 months (because operators have to befool the majority and do accumulation/distribution) the current market run can be understood. it is aptly incidental that vaccines have started appearing.

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