Monday, December 28, 2020

driving in low visibility and shooting with a rocket

 in trading, price prediction is like driving a car at night or in low visibility.

while it is very much possible to foresee which way the road is bending ahead but it is only as much clear as is the distance till which the light is thrown by the headlight.

charts and indicators of a particular timeline throw light only till a particular distance ahead.

we can see reasonably clearly till a distance (for that timeline chart). when we get there or as we get closer, we see beyond that point more clearly). the road becomes visible as we travel further.

it is not possible to look beyond a distance with a particular timeline chart.

to look further, we have to switch to higher timeline chart.

but as we do that, accuracy and least count decreases.

a trader, therefore, shouldn't whip himself to know all the answers with same clarity at once.

and believe me, situations change as we get closer. not only because we couldn't see what was there already at a distance, but also because things change before we reach there. markets are dynamic situations. operators act as shock absorbers.

that is why, if you ask me about closer to the present, i can attempt shooting an ant, but if you ask me far or wide, i would need a planet to shoot with a rocket. 

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