Thursday, June 24, 2010

Intention and ambition of stock price!

Every price graph has two faces

- Intention

- Ambition

Intention is "what it is going to do"

Ambition is "what it threatens and teases and bluffs to do but can't and doesn't"

Look at the graph of nifty of last 5 years

Photobucket

Here the black arrows are its intentions and the red lines are its ambitions.

Traders take ambitions as intentions and panic.

They take ambitions seriously and madly run after it.

Ambition is temporary.

It is flight of desire but has to return to its mother - "Intention"

Intention is closer to fundamentals.

Ambition is always different from intention.

Reason?

Sentiments.

Liquidity.

Difference of opinion in the trader universe.

During bull runs, intention is lower than ambition.

During bear runs, intention is higher than ambition.

Smart traders keep ambition in the eyes to trade and intention in mind to not get carried away.

Intentions and Ambition theory applies equally well in long, medium and short term duration charts including intraday charts.

Intention gives the true picture of where nifty or the stock is about to go.

If we know the true intentions of the price chart, we can never get hit below the belt!

(Step-up Step-down theory, as described in my recent post, or Fibonnaci levels or Elliot waves can help foresee the intentions.)

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