Saturday, January 31, 2015

weak points of operators

one of the weak points of the markets is that it has to move....has to keep moving.....if u realize, this is a major expose'. this is a declared assured certainty of the market. market can hide everything else but can't hide this.......so, if u could design your tactical trading strategy around this weaknes.....as to exploit it.....that you benefit everytime it moves and fails to remain stable.......u win......

another weak point of the market is that is it keeps changing the goal post....while this might seem, initially, a disadvantage for a retail trader like you and me, this very fact can be exploited by us......by converting market's advantage to its helplessness. how? if we stick to one system, one goal post, and design the trading system in such a way that our trading starts only when the market rain is only above our goal post, then we can always be assured of getting that rainfall, which the market will be forced to give us.......

designing my method around these principles.......guerrilla trading......trading lesser, trading sure......trading high volumes.....let's see

Interpreting move of operators from options - II


the first article with the same name was about guessing the broader underlying trend of the market.....typically medium term.....

this article is to check whether the short term trend is in line with the underlying trend or the market is going to do the opposite for some days before it continues in the real (medium term) direction....

lemme take a practical example....

the cmp of nifty on 30th Jan 2015 closing = 8808

now lets go 200 deep on both sides, call as well as put side

8600pe=77/-
9000ce=126/-

now if the market were to go down 100 points, 77 is likely to become 102 (current 8700pe value) (roughly speaking)....that's a profit of 25 points

on the other hand, if the market were to go up 100 points, 126 is likely to become 171 (current 8900ce value) (roughly speaking).....a profit of 45 points

since operators are generally the writers/sellers of the options, they will like to give you 25points rather than 45 points.....hinting thereby that they are taking the market down in the short come.

Traders, the thieves

[2:09PM, 29/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Market doesn't know what position I have taken.....Only I know....so, I must understand that market is not out to assassinate me.....it only got to be my anxiety....so I better stick to my head and mind my trade.....self talk
[2:09PM, 29/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: till the markets can move only in 2D and only have 2 directions to go (up or down), operators will always be having loop holes to let minority traders get on their backs.......self talk
[2:57PM, 29/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: intelligence reduces the winning probability of a 50-50 gambling chance (in the long run).........self talk
[10:41AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: We lose less because of method, more because of adventurism.....self talk
[10:49AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: A trader with realistic expectations from trading is less unsuccessful than others and hence has better chance of coming alive with consolation.....self talk
[11:55AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: We should never copy anybody's method till we don't understand it fully.....We can take inspiration, ideas but should always develop our own one.....everyone's style is different, realities are different, needs and motives are different....self talk
[2:32PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: One line which never let me quit trading and kept and keeps edging me....."what if you finally succeed in cracking the code"
[2:42PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Every pain tear is smaller than this line.....
[2:49PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: My eternal search in trade learning.....a sure shot trading signal....even if it were to occur only once in a blue moon......jacking volumes will do the rest.....
[2:49PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: A trading system with minimum indicators setup....
[2:49PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: It is my dream to take this journey to it's logical conclusion....financial retirement....money freedom time freedom......self talk
[2:49PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: A method which is operator proof....
[2:52PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Market situation proof....
[2:52PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: And since I am searching for it like a possessed man, and since I will settle for nothing less,I will get it, how so long it may take.....
[3:17PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Nothing can bury my resolve
[3:17PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Rajan hi,You mean responsibility article or trading self talk
[3:17PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Working on those.....
[3:17PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: I beg to differ Rajan ji on your adequate use of technology part....with full reverence for your views though....I am not saying zero technology or software use.....I would need those....but there must be a way with minimal use of hi-tech software.....already have 2 ideas...
[3:17PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Will take one or two months probably??
[3:17PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Yes....sure
[3:17PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Technology  use  acts as catalyst. It fastens up the whole  process
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: And as aptly demonstrated by Garry Kasparov, supercomputers have gaps detectable by human cleverness
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: But it is difficult for retail traders to get and afford best technology used by strong hands....also, technology can succumb to technology.....there must be a way since the will is there....
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: It is not as expensive  as we think. In 30k you get amibroker. Intra day feed is available  for less than  500rs per month.
Learning  amibroker  is not difficult  at all.
It is very  flexible  to experiment  with our strategy and back test it.
In short  it is worth  a try
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: I am looking for predictable portions of operator play.....
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Only schemer, tactician....
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Yes, amibroker+ programmer= trade hacker.....like you
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: But me not programmer
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: I am looking for consistent sure way of being on the minority side with strong hands....even if for few occasions.....
[3:22PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: It is easy
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Operators are thieves and they leave big clues.....
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Operators have limitations...
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: There are clear patterns in their thefts.....hidden in the charts.....
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Trust me.....I am not just putting amusing words.....I have cracked 3....Working hard to stitch them together.....
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: @rajan:
amibroker tu bdiya metatrader aa..par apne lyi dono useful nahi...bcz that type of coders are not available easily.
Nd If we have to plot indicators on that, then google finance serves the task for free.
I found no coder on internet still who can code what i want..only polish snake oil found in market.
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Already, my trading record not as bad as it used to be.....but nowhere near what I aspire and what can be done....
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: @arun I can try to code it
[3:30PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: You have to have strategy to program into software to get money from strong hands.....software and programming is not enough.....otherwise every one would purchase it and arrive....people like Rajan are few....percentage wise
[3:33PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: If its easy to earn money by programming then all IIT' IANS would be millionare..
[3:33PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Its not about intelligence its about discipline
[3:33PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: That's what I am saying.....I have met Rajan and he is different.....
[3:33PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: And strategy
[3:33PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: We all are thieves and have no strategy.....getting caught every other day
[3:33PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: @a run.  Never ask a girl her age.  And never ask trader his portfolio
[3:33PM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: We all are thieves and have no strategy.....getting caught every other day

Essential traits of an effective trading system

The essential traits of an effective trading system....
1.it is cast in cement....meaning thereby that it's functional conditions like entry exit are fixed
2.it has a smart operating technical our tactical edge
3.it has to be repeated to show effect in the long run.
4.and for this to happen you have to have right trading size with with buffer funds plus strong nerves

Surviving operators

[8:47AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Here are some of the pet ways the operators trap us.....
1.shake you with volatility, etc
2.surprise you with a move, extent, direction, et all
3.shock you with speed etc
4.bore you with a train of dull sessions
5.bluff
6.being "illogical"
7.create doubt confusion in you in whatever way...
[8:47AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: It keeps on happening
It will keep on happening
We are getting beaten on a tactical level, my friends...
We are playing against a formidable opponent...
The only way to survive and get our small share out of their grip is to turn the tables.....using tactics for tactics....
1. Compass.....if you have your compass method parameters, you can always remember the direction how so ever they shake you.
2. Guerilla fight.....the longer you stay in the market field, in the open, more chance and time you are giving them to hunt you down. So just remember your compass, wait for the operators to do it till far enough, take an indicated shot and out you go.
3. Patience.....wait for your opportunity to hunt the hunter...trade less....small rides, high volume
[8:47AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: And what do we poor follows do?
-we try to be resilient, obedient, brave, tough, accommodating, all accepting gentlemen.....consoling ourselves, licking our wounds and waiting for it all to pass away as a bad dream...a nightmare.....
But does that really go away?
It keeps on happening
It will keep on happening
We are getting beaten on a tactical level, my friends...
We are playing against a formidable opponent...
The only way to survive and get our small share out of their grip is to turn the tables.....using tactics for tactics....
1. Compass.....if you have your compass method parameters, you can always remember the direction how so ever they shake you.
2. Guerilla fight.....the longer you stay in the market field, in the open, more chance and time you are giving them to hunt you down. So just remember your compass, wait for the operators to do it till far enough, take an indicated shot and out you go.
3. Patience.....wait for your opportunity to hunt the hunter...trade less....small rides, high volume
[9:36AM, 31/01/2015] Mudraa Murli Chainani: When we say operators, obviously they are more than one. Do they take  syndicated action together during sudden and sharp movements in stock market. Curious to understand.
[9:39AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Valid point....they may not take syndicated actions but their actions are expectedly synchronised and reactive...
[9:40AM, 31/01/2015] Mudraa rajan k: My take  on very important points mentioned by js ji
1.shake you with volatility.
Volatility is bad because  it takes us out of the trade by cutting  our stoploss. Now how to tackle this. One way is not to have stoploss stick with the trade till our target is met. This method works only if we  have very solid money management  techniques i.e we are risking only 5% of our total capital  on one trade. The sounds simple but very  hard to follow. The main reason  is retail enters the market  with small capital  say 1or 2 lacs. 5%of this comes to  5000 or 10000 with this amount hardly  and trade is possible without using leverage. And the moment  we leverage  with start  digging  our own grave.
Now the second option  is to use stoploss. Here depending  on our risk  reward ratio (which should  be at least  1:2)we enter  the trade  with  a stoploss. When our stoploss  is hit we patiently watch  the stock to stabilize for at least  5 min and start moving in direction  of our original trade . then we take the trade again(of course  with stoploss).
[9:40AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Over reaction is thus more of a norm than aberration
[9:40AM, 31/01/2015] Mudraa Amol Pune: Guess they must be a minority....driving the market as they want with loads of money...trapping majority
[9:41AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Well said Rajan
[9:41AM, 31/01/2015] Mudraa rajan k: Point 2 and 3 are nothing but off shoot of volatility
[9:42AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: Guerrilla trading is a way out....sticking to our compass reading....
[9:43AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: I strongly believe we should not be in the market always....and we should not react to everything till it validates our compass (understanding of underlying trend)
[9:44AM, 31/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: Wow what a discussion. πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™
[9:46AM, 31/01/2015] Mudraa rajan k: 4.bore you with train of dull session.
Usually  when the broad index stocks are  in dull days  we have some mid caps doing wonders. Play them.  I assure you  will love it
[9:48AM, 31/01/2015] Mudraa rajan k: 5, 6&7 are again  same. Well all I can say is "dhanda hai per  ganga hai ye". It is all about money, honey
[9:49AM, 31/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: One thing is clear.....we can't make money consistently of we don't have a plan that works against the repeated tactics of stronger hands.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Interpreting move of operators from options

[11:28AM, 29/01/2015] Mudraa JP: please teach us on how to know the correct value of option... like you said. ..currently high premium. ..etc.. can we take this topic on weekend ??
[11:29AM, 29/01/2015] @: see.....more the premium,more valuable the thing, likely the likelihood
[11:31AM, 29/01/2015] @: e.g. cmp=8867spot.......feb 8800 call is costing 258/-.....meaning a premium of 191
[11:31AM, 29/01/2015] @: feb 8950put is costing 186/-.....meaning a premium of 103
[11:33AM, 29/01/2015] @: assuming operators are the sellers of the options (and assuming they are smart chaps), they must be aware of the costs they are asking for the puts and calls.....so why are they asking less for the puts than calls? (u can see that cmp is approx equidistant from both the strike points i have taken)
[11:34AM, 29/01/2015] Mudraa JP: Ok..
[11:34AM, 29/01/2015] mudraa p murlidhar: Ok sir
[11:34AM, 29/01/2015] @: this indirectly clearly hints that operators know that they are going to take the market up (ultimately) because of fundamental developments (foreseen and current), and they want we sheeps to eat cheaper puts
[11:34AM, 29/01/2015] mudraa Dinu prasad: 
[11:34AM, 29/01/2015] @: there is another aspect.....
[11:36AM, 29/01/2015] Mudraa JP: Alright,  does it mean..the operators will tend to go the other way ?
[11:36AM, 29/01/2015] @: e.g. if feb 8800call is costing 258/- on jan expiry, it might cost 58 or 158 or 358 for the same strike next expiry day (assuming cmp remains same)
[11:37AM, 29/01/2015] @: everything depends upon the travelling plans of operators (up or down)
[11:37AM, 29/01/2015] Mudraa JP: I c..humm getting a bit more closely now
[11:37AM, 29/01/2015] @: yes, operators always go the other way....they have to....otherwise they are not the operators, public is
[11:38AM, 29/01/2015] @: one more thing.....
[11:38AM, 29/01/2015] Mudraa JP: Please
[11:39AM, 29/01/2015] @: the fact that difference in the call and put premiums (or cost) of feb series of equidistant strike points is not that much (258 vs 186) shows that thow markets are finally expected to go up, its not tilted that much towards upside!!!
[11:39AM, 29/01/2015] @: this is indicating intermediate slides and crashes
[11:41AM, 29/01/2015] @: so, u can't decide whether the cost of a particular option is low or high or right
[11:41AM, 29/01/2015] @: u just have to compare the price and premium of strike prices equidistant from the cmp and check

4 kinds of risks

1.confirmed gaurantees
......never take them.......

2.risky guarantees
.....always taken them

3.confirmed risks
.........always take them

4.risky risks
.....never take them

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

trading nifty like an old car dealer

everything is psychological...
following is a way i managed some anxieties of trading...

one of my friends in shimla is a second hand car dealer. he buys old cars and sells at a higher price, with or without refurbishing, mostly as it is...but verbal rosy painting...

he is, by now, well established in the area for his trade adn keeps receiving many offers everyday. he generally keeps 2 or 3 lacs cash in his pocket to clinch a good deal as and when it pops up.

there is one more reason for him to keep ready cash with him....and this is a smart one...

suppose he wants to buy a particular car for 1.5 lacs but the customer wants 2 lacs and is adamant on it.....my friend brings the negotiation to a point of "take it or leave  it" and then plays a tactic.....he takes out the bundle of cash and puts it on the table....

very often, as he told me....the customer budges after seeing the cash and finding it too hard to refuse the "heap of money"...

so many deals he has clinched this way....at unrealistically low prices!!!

anyhow, this is not the thing i want to share....the reason i am sharing his story is the following...

my friend gets a lots of offers to buy old cars, majority at fair prices...but he doesn't buy them....!!!

why?

simple.....he knows he has to sell the car after buying....he knows he is not buying to keep the vehicle!!!

so he buys only if the customer is willing to sell at min 20000 or more (depending upon whether it is a 10lac car or 5lac or 2lac) below the tentative price my friend can resell it for!!!

logical....

do the sellers agree to this?

well, not easily....

that is the reason, he has to employ the tactics as above....

so, what's the point...

the point is simple and straight....

when nifty trading started getting on my nerves for more than one reason, i wanted to psychologically trick myself into enjoying trading without changing the trading per se....so, this is what i did....

i started imagining my nifty trades as the second hand car trades...

when i buy nifty...i consider it as an offer of buying out a used car at a price lower than my understanding says it could be sold for.....

i don't buy the nifty car unless my trading method confirms me to a reasonable degree of probability that i will find a "buyer" for a higher price soon....

in that sense, since that day.....i "trade".....like that "used car trader"....

i no longer have the mental pressure or anxiety or stress that other fellow traders bear...."share trading" are very heavy words! loaded with horrible pictures in the minds of the speaker and listener....

i now just feel like a traditional brick and mortar trader....

buy the thing lesser than what it is worth and sell it to someone at more than it is worth!!!

now, i am least concerned by the heights or depths of nifty....4000 or 8000 or 16000 mean nothing to me....

nifty is just an old car which promises to make me some money if i trade right!!!

Self talks....

always keep room for surprises in trading......self talk
the only thing sure in trading is.......surprises.......self talk
you can plan an entire trading method around the concept/trick of.......surprises
e.g. trade only when there is a surprise!!!
the day nothing surprises him/her, the trader has come of age......self talk
if u see the trend from too close, everything is so confusing, surprising and chaotic.......as u step away from the chart and see it from a broader angle......nothing is............self talk
when a trader doesn't have the holding power, what can he do except.....let it go!!!...............self talk

while big profit is the best.........small profit is better than no profit no loss (NPNL).......NPNL is better than small loss........small loss is better than big loss......stopping the bleeding money is important wherever u r
trading is not about wealth creation....it is about cash flow..........(investing is for wealth creation).....if we keep the difference in mind, our trading decisions will be better........self talk

fast thinking fast acting trader!!!

trading situations change much slowly than the traders can think

.......in other words, traders think much faster, if not much more than the trading developments happen

....majority trading mistakes happen because of this

....maximum 3 trends happen in 1 month whereas a trader thinks upto 10 or even more

.....since a trend, in actual, takes days to develop and show up, and since a trader can't bear the wait and must come to some conclusion, he cooks or extrapolates or imagines one, right or wrong

.....this make belief adhocism is the cause of all mixup....

in the anxiety caused by fear or greed, the trader wants to jump to a conclusion which is yet to emerge!

it is one of the biggest trading myths that trader has to be fast thinking and fast acting!!!

far from the truth!!!

5s of trading

 applying Japanese 5s to trading.....
1.Sei-ri (sorting)
......only essential trading parameters/technicals only......clear the clutter......possible only after testing them initially....after this step u r left only essential parameters which work, or complement ur style and temperament.....after u have sorted.....don't fiddle......just keep improving
2. Sei-ton (set in order)
......arrange the order of the parameters to be used in trading....to analyse......not all parameters are for the same purpose......some are key and basic, others are for specific needs or in advisor capacity....know when and how to use which indicator/parameter
3. Sei-so (shining)
.....keep ur working (trading) desk clean....not just the physical trading terminal and desk but also the records and the trading mind......keep everything shining, clean and clear.....only when u have a clear desk and head that u can chose the right tool and apply it rightly at the right time......keeping the parameters shining in the head by regularly dusting/cleaning it thru revision keeps them ready when required.
4. Sei-ke-tsu (standardizing)
.....once u have sorted the necessary trading tools, set them in order and kept them in ready-to-use condition, u have to stardize their usage.....the process.....the drill as to how u will actually use it when require.....haphazard usage of even good principles will not yield the right results

5. Shi-tsu-ke (self  discipline)
.....after all the above 4 steps, if you don't implement them right, if don't have self-discipline in the actual war, the trading......what good they will and can be? stick to it....self-discipline....this step ensures that it is not you but your method that is trading......u and the method become one....trade is objective and automatic.....emotionless

Trading like cricket

[10:41AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: trading is like batting in cricket.....and operators are the bowlers as well as fielders and wicket keepers....out there to catch,bold,stump, run you out
[10:42AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: you can't decide your next stroke pre-maturely....before the bowl has been delivered
[10:43AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: you decide your stroke as per the bowl......whether u r going to play it defensive, sweep it, loft it, square cut it, play off-drive, hook it etc etc
[10:44AM, 28/01/2015] Sub Mathurji: Better to be on non strike
[10:44AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: got to respect the good delivery adn punish the bad one....
[10:44AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: lol
[10:44AM, 28/01/2015] Sub Mathurji: 😊
[10:44AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: running between the wickets has to be sharp
[10:44AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: every technique will be tested
[10:45AM, 28/01/2015] Sub Mathurji: Lets other batsmen (mutual fund) do all the scoring for u
[10:45AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: your stance has to be perfect...
[10:45AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: good, mathurji!
[10:46AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: but the joy of playing will be absent from the pavilion
[10:46AM, 28/01/2015] Sub Mathurji: Neglect sharp singles...
Dont back up too much...
Take single in place of 2
[10:46AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: all ones and twos count....
[10:46AM, 28/01/2015] mudraa Dinu prasad: 
[10:46AM, 28/01/2015] mudraa p murlidhar: Learning alot sir
[10:46AM, 28/01/2015] Sub Mathurji: Then just be the umpire...
Do running all over the field without fear of getting out
[10:46AM, 28/01/2015] Sub Mathurji: 😊
[10:47AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: you have to read the pitch.....turning, swinging, dead...
[10:47AM, 28/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: And take calculated risk
[10:47AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: lol, mathurji
[10:47AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: or bcci!!!
[10:47AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: making big(bigger money) without playing!!!
[10:48AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: see out the dangerous spells
[10:48AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: batting is more of reactiing to the bowling which decides it all
[10:49AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: and these bowlers always bowl to the impeccable field setting!!!
[10:49AM, 28/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: Yes Sir
[10:49AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: all these matches are fixed excluding the batsman...
[10:50AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: and you are the only batsman....from the openers to the last man standing....
[10:51AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: so much so, that you are yourself the 12th man and the physio.....got to nurse yourself yourself...
[10:51AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: got to stand on the crease and protect your precious wicket.....if you ensure that....runs will come
[10:51AM, 28/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: One many army
[10:53AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Play with a straight bat ”
- In trading, it is important to do the right things rightly.
[10:53AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Stay at the crease ”
- Have patience. You will have ample correct opportunities.
[10:53AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Footwork ”
- Be adventurous. Use your talent. Be passionate
[10:54AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Concentrate on line and length ”
- Consistency is crucial
[10:54AM, 28/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘
[10:54AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Keep the scoreboard ticking. 1’s and 2’s are also important“
- A little progress everyday adds up to big results.
- Keep progressing and improving.
[10:54AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Helmet, Guards, Pads, Gloves”
- Safety net in trading is important- Live life sensibly.
[10:55AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Don’t get hit-wicket ”
- Beware of wrong decisions which can be detrimental
[10:55AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Build the foundation of innings”
- First few years of trading are crucial. Concentrate on investing in foundation. You have to learn to walk before you run and take off
[10:55AM, 28/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: “ Build partnerships ”
- What clicks, keep clicking. Stability is important.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

How to start learning trading

[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: What are the basic necessary parameters required from your point of view ?
[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: money doesn't marry those who will not be willing to do anything for her!!!
[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: parameters bole to.....technical indicators
[4:23PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: lemme outline a few good candidates....
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 1. sma
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: Please
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: best one
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 2. rsi
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 3. options data
[4:24PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 4. volumes (for stocks), fii/dii data (for indices)
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 5. patterns (like rising triangle, wedges, continuation triangles
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 6. supports and resistances
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: What time period of sma is required? 5 or 14 day
[4:25PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 7. trendlines
[4:26PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: all period combinations are good....methods are woven reverse....based on specific period....
[4:26PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: however, it is the tick size (the least count) of the chart which is crucial
[4:26PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: smaller ticksize for shorter period trading....
[4:27PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: eg, i take 30 minnute ticksize chart fr positional and 5 min tick chart for short term
[4:28PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: and ofcourse.....when u r out there sweating the practice, u will come across bonus diamonds which no book or software can or will tell u and those will be ur copyright / trademark gems!!!
[4:29PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: u have to work hard to deserve those "lucky" finds....."the harder i work, the luckier i get" (quote)
[4:30PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 90%, if not 99%, of the traders are trading casually......and have no future!!!
[4:30PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: πŸ‘πŸ“RSI below 30 and above 80?
[4:31PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: What's the range?
[4:33PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: what a pity that those 90% think that learning trading the above way is "difficult"
[4:33PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: if u love something, it is no more difficult
[4:33PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: never just see rsi value.....
[4:34PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i have said this in dozens of rsi articles iu have written in all these years....all are archived in my blog or mudraa.....
[4:34PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: everyone looks at the rsi value and tries to trade according to those only....and gets trapped....
[4:36PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i have jotted down rsi protocols and rules in my articles (not possible to reproduce here all of them) which should be used instead of plain rsi values
[4:37PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: In bestbusinessintheworld.blogspot. com
[4:37PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: And as per ur views js sir all indicates bullish.  Right??    What if sudden gap down ??   Like if today usa falls down heavily and tomorrow if we get gap down 100points. Than all parameters changes in few minutes??
[4:38PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i have done some original work on rsi and william which i bet are not available anywhere in the world....print or web.....to the extent that even the inventor welles wilder doesn;t know them either....i have read him extensively.....he did the all important basic work but somehow didn't go beyond a level.....i gues he is still alive
[4:38PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: yes, that;s the blog
[4:38PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: thebestbusinessintheworld.blogspot.in
[4:39PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: πŸ‘will search there
[4:39PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: @jeneel superb question....
[4:40PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: 8/8 bullish signals doesn't mean there will and can't be volatility or fluctuations.........just because obama decided to kill osama doesn't mean that it will be as simple as taking appointment and visiting him to shoot
[4:40PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: I asked because you experienced twice last month.  I think. ...but you recoverd double
[4:41PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: after the parameters have revealed that storng bullish winds are there, now, operators will try and create trading situations where very fwew will be able to actually get or remain onboard
[4:42PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: see jeneel, i got off because there were some holes in my method for such a situation....which i have since plugged......
[4:42PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i don't rule out more holes, but the detected ones stand plugged
[4:43PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: and
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: if there is an unforeseen (for operators) development in the world overnight, operators may change their plan and that will show up in changing parameters......
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: but we will get time
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: if we lose 100 points till we get signal, it will mean that the subsequesnt rally will atleast be 500 points....
[4:44PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: No words for u😷😷😷
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: later the signal, longer the rally....and vice versa
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: ExactlyπŸ˜„πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: but
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: as of now.....8/8
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: how can i say something else when this is what i see
[4:45PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i can't be apologetic for the mischiefs operators play......
[4:46PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: Yes correct I agree sirji
[4:48PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: πŸ‘ good lesson learnt for me Js ji.  Let This learning will be a continuous process for me.
[4:49PM, 27/01/2015] mudraa gowtham kumar: Will read your blogs on RSI and will come back with more questions.
[4:50PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i don't have any "vibhuuti" for turning into super traders......only heat, dust sweats, tears, blood....my dear friends....
[4:50PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: but one thing i can assure...all this turns into the gold dust....
[4:52PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa jeneel shah surendranagar gujarat: πŸ‘πŸ‘Œ
[4:52PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i used to be very very jittery in revealing my "secrets" in blog......but i still used to do it for 2 reasons.....1. it was my duty to preserve them.......2. i read a japanese proverb "they won't do it"
[4:52PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: the latest one i have revealed is regarding the options spread......
[4:53PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: some half a dozen mindblowing revelations i will one day jot down when i have got more or when i am sure nobody will take them seriously
[4:54PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: those who will take my sharings seriously are assured of results
[4:54PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i am not ashamed of these self talk because i respect the technology........technology has no shame
[4:55PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: We will and are taking it very seriously as a part of learning from you
[4:55PM, 27/01/2015] Mudraa Jammu Rupinder S Raina: Sir
[4:56PM, 27/01/2015] Jagmohan Singh: i can't disrespect or desbelief or doubt my learning just because there is fear that these may be proved wrong!!! these might not be....ever.......self doubt is the greates impediment to freedom

Friday, January 23, 2015

let the fractals help you!!!

and by the way guys....i recommend u study fractals.....i have lately started using this as one of the indicators/ways to confirm whether it is time to step out and/or reverse.....(i misjudged it myself when i wrongly stepped out yesterday, none of its fault)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNxt298VVOw

this is an old video of bill williams lecture on the subject......

i had ignored it earlier as i found the success ratio doubtful....besides my obsession with rsi and william%r...

but now, when i was confronted with the dilemma of when and when not to step out, i desperately needed a solution. none of my existing indicators could give me a suitable answers. and then i recalled this video and got the solution.....

---------

poor Bill Williams and Welles Wilder don't know how bloody potent their discovered trading weapons are.....fractals and rsi, respectively......for the only reason that they got v less time and opportunity or energy to practically implement them to the degree that would have revealed the exact usage and situation when their discoveries would work best!!

---------

the beauty with the theory and concept of fractals is...that the markets themselves decide the points when their move should be considered a bluff or non-bluff

influences on a technical trader

.....a million dollar quesion is....is it possible....can someone trade index purely by looking at charts, without knowing any approaching event or macros etc......answer, i'm afraid....is yes.....that's the essence of technical trading

knowledge of events etc influences and disturbs a technical trader....thus helping operators trap him......

just because greece results are expected.....or just because budget is coming....or just because crude dollar etc etc.....should a deft technical trader ignore the shouting analyses of charts? isn't chart a result of the market situation created by and with the permission of operators? don't operators know where they want to take the market? don't they have even the faintest of clues about what is going to happen? so, therefore, aren't the charts and technicals already reflecting everything?

this reminds me of a beautiful quotation....."how old would you be if you didn't know how old you are".....in trading context i would translate it as "how would you (the technical chartist trader) trade if you didn't know what event is going to be"

fear, lack of confidence, greed, emotions, overconfidence etc......paralyse a technical trader........all night he sees a bull in dreams and what does he do first thing in the morning.....a bear hug!!!

the true effectiveness and efficiency of the poor technical trader's method and skill and training never gets a chance to be revealed!!! nodoubt, he always remains struggling....and one day....thinking that trading is not for him, he quits!!!

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

self talk

[7:45am, 12/01/2015] : naughty but frank self talk.... stock market trading is like stealing, you can get occasional cash flow and kick but can't make a living unless you are a pro....
[7:47am, 12/01/2015] : self talk....if we don't acknowledge the false, we can't deserve the truth
[7:50am, 12/01/2015] : since Friday evening I am seriously thinking of positional trading with stocks (cash n carry, and not their options or futures or margin) instead of nifty futures or options but by using same method.....reasons make a genuine case....
[7:52am, 12/01/2015] : no premium eating......flexi entry exit.....no leverage, all cash......can hold in cases of market wild unforeseen fluctuations.....
[7:54am, 12/01/2015] : and seriously considering NOT shorting......trading only long side and using declines to let market add value to the stock pile I would be buying at lower levels.....
[7:55am, 12/01/2015] : seriously thinking of taking pain bitterness anxiety uncertainty out of trading without sacrificing any good aspects of positional trading.....
[7:57am, 12/01/2015] Arun Singla: Nifty/Bn u decide u quit ??
[7:57am, 12/01/2015] : I have many spent hours thinking about it in the past 3 days and have found that in no ways positional trading in stocks (without leveraging) is less money spinner than trading in indices with leverage...
[7:59am, 12/01/2015] : I don't want to say...QUIT.....I seriously believe in the maxim.....NEVER SAY NEVER AGAIN......just thinking seriously.....just telling myself not to stop thinking out of the box.....to think as if there is no box.....
[8:00am, 12/01/2015] : I will make nifty as one of the indicators....
[8:00am, 12/01/2015] : have to analyse nifty before using it to positional trade in stocks....
[8:02am, 12/01/2015] : ....and mind you, I am not investing in stocks.....neither going to check their fundamentals or even their technicals...😳....Will just buy strong stocks when nifty gives a signal to buy......
[8:02am, 12/01/2015] : of course, preferably stocks with positive beta
[8:02am, 12/01/2015] : with nifty

Friday, January 9, 2015

how options open interest hints direction of market movement

​suppose market spot is at 8000
then check 8000CE and 8000PE open interest.
let's assume these are 2500k and 3500k respectively
let's also asssume premium for both is 50 rs. and 120 rs respectively
in this scenario, assuming operators are mainly options writers, which i think is a right assumption
operators​ will like to move in the direction where they gobble up more than they shell out
in this case premium on table for 8000CE is 2500kx50=1,25,000k
vs premium on table for 8000PE=3500kx120=4,20,000k
in this case, operators will obviously want to throw 8000PE "out of money" by taking market above 8000
this way they get to eat 8000PE premium
now, 8000CE becomes in the premium becomes "in the money". operators would risk giving something from this premium to the holders of 8000CE.
thus operators have gained 420000k by losing 125000k.
thus is the direction decided or estimated from the options data as to where the market may be taken by the operators
larger the gap between the "premium on the table" at any strike level decides how strong is that gate for the operators to crash.
--
dear siva,
i have shared one of my prime learnings with u. i was always hesitant to share such advanced things fearing that operators will stop using these tactics once formulae are exposed......i think i must be acting naive by thinking this way. 

anyway, i have penned it down courtesy you. now i will archive this in my blog.

hope this learning of mine is right and not flawed

any feedback or query welcome

Thursday, January 8, 2015

none of your fault, buddy !!!

there are 2 types of market moves....

1. where operators are cooking something
2. where operators serve (forcefeed) you what they have secretly cooked (with ur mind hypnotised)

i call first, the forehand of trading table tennis
and the latter, its back hand

in my opinion, the forehand is difficult, if not impossible, to predict. though u can roughly and intelligently anticipate or expect.

it is the back hand that you can spot and play with much more accuracy.

so, only 50% of the opportunities are encashable practically speaking...though the good news is that even that much is wildly huge and hence, more than enough!!!

the trouble arises when a normal trader looks at all market moves with the same eye....

he/she is unable to spot the difference between the forehand or back hand.

while the forehand moves are highly unpredictable (because they depend totally on the game operators decide to play....if, when, as....), the back hand is predictable to a high degree.

forehand moves violate technicals (and even fundamentals)....they are mostly tactical in nature to confuse,trap, manipulate et al....they are the Krishnamachari Srikkanths of trading

on the other hand, the back hand moves obey technicals in almost copybook fashion.....they are the Gavaskars of trading....

--

today's (8th Jan nifty) forenoon rise is a typical forehand as was the  fall of 6th forenoon.

--

so, next time, you don't know the head and tail of any move and just feel like kicking yourself.....don't........just recall that that that was a forehand smash by the operators.....none of your fault,buddy!!!....

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Bluff called Levels

Rajanji, don't support and resistance levels work because everyone is looking at them because everyone are taught that....?

These are not based on fundamentals or psychology.....I think.....they work because these are wide spread beliefs.....People believe in the channel theory, horizontal levels....which other than mass hysteria reasons is totally make believe working crap

There is a multi billion dollar consultancy, training, publishing, media, brokerage industry based on all this....

Otherwise, reason behind any level of any stock in the past cannot be the same months and years later.....what to talk of macro economy of the country and worldwide.....

It still works because sufficient people believe in this theory.....

Operators take advantage of it.....mercilessly, as per their convenience and necessity....

Newer and amateur traders are taught technicals to become unsuspecting victims.....

They play at technical level and get beaten on the tactical level...

That is why I believe that if someone trades like one plays video game he or she will make more money then with technicals....

A kid who doesn't know technicals can beat his technical father or mother hands down in trading.....in my opinion

Markets and market situations are always new.....and we play them with outdated reference points...

Reason why even the most sophisticated trading software can't guarantee profits without human intervention of high quality...

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Self talk

[4:46PM]: Just sharing....After market hours I used to (still) train/practice on ftse, can, dax, nasdaq charts for real time practice
[4:47PM]: Trading is not about prediction....it is about observation and following
[4:54PM]: Another major adjustment in method courtesy this morning shocker....hence forth....“for direction check 30 min (tick) chart, for trade timing check 5 min chart".......would have been out of trade this morning had I been using this rule.....this is how I have been fine tuning my method.....also, there is no other way I could have predicted the timing of this fall.....I think hardly anyone would have taken shorts yesterday knowing this....
[4:57PM]: Just incorporate ways to judge whipsaws and any method will be a success
[5:04PM]: Self talk....If you don't follow anyone blindly, you can preserve a friend and yet learn hell lot from everyone anyone
[5:05PM]: Never borrow money or trade from a friend....you risk losing both.....
[5:06PM]: Take opinion/advise but trade with own money own understanding own responsibility....
[5:09PM]: Self talk.....Trading is the best business in the world....but the trouble is people come to it with casual mindset they know is unfit for any business!
[5:13PM]: They want big unlimited money but are not willing to learn wait and think
[5:16PM]: Things you invest in trading.....time, money, manpower (you), method(!!?), machine (pc)
[5:18PM]: Self talk.....If Indian markets falling when oil falling....what will happen when oil starts climbing😷
[5:21PM]: If I forget charts for a minute, I fear markets may be heading towards something nasty
[5:27PM]: You can't have consistency if you don't have rules and method and benchmark and reference point
[5:41PM]: Self talk....I don't win....my method does, I don't lose.....my method does.....provided I follow it ruthlessly...
[5:56PM]: I agree with Rajanji.....invest to make wealth...trade to multiply......
[6:02PM]: This may be true Rajanji, but I think long term prediction has little use in trading in the present...what do you say...
[6:08PM]: Portfolio investing is the ultimate pleasure and wealth game
[6:09PM]: Trading is coffee, investing is scotch
[6:13PM]: It is an ultimate pleasure to watch or read investors like Buffett and Ramdeo Aggarwal...

Self talk

... I have changed the structure of my method from sar...now I will remain out of market during fog/cusp/low clarity/risky chart areas....also will not be booking in steps as non sar method will ensure full in full out moves....already today gathered 78 points equivalent....

....also will not be booking in steps. non sar method will ensure full in full out moves....already today gathered 78 points equivalent....

More trades...shorter trades

Trading requires lots of fine tuning.....painfully tedious.....takes time money peace of mind.....not easy.....but not impossible

GOD knows how many tricks I have used and discarded in last many  years...Chester full of them....these bits now come very handy.....

Serious Trading is a full time job.....not part time.....

Friday, January 2, 2015

self talk

....if u can stand in the fog long enough, u start seeing things

...there is always an innocent but genuine reason behind a repeated failure......ignore it and failure  will reward by repeating endlessly.

------------------

right now nifty train is between 2 stations......will wait for the next station for addinglongs. should board only on platforms unless one is mumbai lical train pro and risk is sufficiently covered.

next platform may be a few days away.

if u can afford the risk.....u can jump on. this likely to go much higher than this in my calculation.

Thursday, January 1, 2015

3 states of a trader's mind

.....a professional trader is very clear in his or her head

he/she is either clearly bullish or clearly bearish or clearly confused

in the first two cases he/she takes a clear trade and in the third, he/she stays clear of trading

inability to acknowledge one's confusion is disastrous.