Tuesday, July 31, 2012

similar situation, different decision



dear murliji,

thanks for asking and sound like the echo of my self talk.

1. why i terminated both calls of yday in 10-15 points

= there was a strong "undercurrent" signals for slide down. so i took the intraday downward position. but as is often possible near sma 34 lines, those strong signals are bulldozed. for 1-2 hours, it seemed that the upward movement was a bluff. so while i let the first short position drift without sl, at sufficient high intraday position, i gave my shorts a second shot but this time with stop loss. i went for a stoploss for 2 reasons - a)second trade was more in-the-money and costlier, b)if the market was to still continue to drift up (as it eventually did), i didn't need longer signal to accept that the "undercurrent" was false and an upward rally was in store. therefore, the second short trade was with a tight (but well thought of) 10 point one. the first one was costlier @ 15

2. why i let today's trade ride the roller coster

= yesterday's bulldozing of "short" signal was enough signal of an upward rally. so i had little doubt of going long for overnight. 1% asian market buoyancy in morning hinted that i was right. but the rbi policy was a factor that stood in-between. besides the overnight bullish hints, there were enough signals in the morning that hinted that upward movement was inevitable. i was jittery to see the markets dip in the pre-lunch session, but frankly, i was not surprised. i rechecked the signals and saw buoyant forces again. and i was sure that operators / market forces couldn't bulldoze opposite side signals on consecutive days. plus there were 1-2 more reasons. by now, it was obvious that market forces had used rbi news to play the intraday game. buying and adding to the long positions at the intraday lows was an excellent idea (which i decided against, for some reasons).

i checked signals again after 3 and saw clear btst invitation.

so while squaring yday trades was the acceptance of the limit of adverse trade setup, not squaring today's intraday adverse trade was a tough put-my-foot-down deliberate decision to stick to my understanding.
and all this time, i was almost ready with the backup plan. 

No comments: