Wednesday, June 27, 2012

fact of the matter is......


+600
+200
-300
-0
-600
+0
+300
-200
-0
+100
-100
-600
-100
+400
-400
-200
+500
+100
-100
-100
-300
+300 = june

given above are the net series-end to series-end nifty spot change values in last 22 months

few points worth noting
1. average net change in nifty=250
2. more than 400=6 times
3. zero to 100=9 times
4. 200-300=7 times
5. more than 600=none
6. options buyer don't have a chance. the small movement is enough to make any option premium unrecoverable except by writing. that too is risky and needs a precision strategy.
7. you can't predict the direction. by the time you know, it changes
8. you can't predict the extent of change, by the time you know, it ends.
9. the "game" is made for option writers and not for option buyers. in fact, only those option writers have a chance who have unlimited funding and smart auto-software.
10. you move, market kills you. only chance you have : you stay still, let market move.
11. if you make 33% of the 100% move of the market, you are a genious.
12. level of a genious is inversely proportional to the complexity of the strategy.
13. there are 9 of 22 times (41% approx) chance that you will not get any chance to make money (encashing the chance is another question altogether)
14. all big moves are unpredictable and hence uncatchable. doubt will freeze you or checkmate you.
15. options and futures are tools of the operators......bait to hook the fish.

all (non-operator) traders are playing on technical and fundamental levels
and getting beaten on tactical level.

1 comment:

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