CHINA:
Good Morning RUSSIA
RUSSIA:
Good morning
so, what’s the plan for
new year bash ?
CHINA:
with family......at home
tonight.......on the famous mall road tomorrow!!!
and urs
RUSSIA:
very much at Home
CHINA:
i was just spending some
time to understand what
RUSSIA:
I never venture anything
on the 31st night. often keep myself in the quite mood.
CHINA:
nifty might do this
year!
RUSSIA:
ok
CHINA:
that's good! same
here...
RUSSIA:
so, what does your study
says?
CHINA:
nifty around 3200 is a possibility
which can't be ruled out
RUSSIA:
that scares me
CHINA:
i am looking at 10 yr
nifty chart
RUSSIA:
ok
CHINA:
atleast 55% chance....
and that is hell of a
chance
RUSSIA:
3200 nifty means my
portfolio will be just 10% of the value invested
CHINA:
i forgot that
u r an investor too
RUSSIA:
very very much
CHINA:
don't panic, just don't
ignore that
RUSSIA:
sure,
CHINA:
besides, it will not
drop the apple on newton's head
it will happen so slowly
RUSSIA:
what my main concern is
to know, what went fundamentally So wrong that, everyone on the street is so
bearish.
CHINA:
that nobody will feel it
much!
RUSSIA:
also, I was watching an
interview yesterday
CHINA:
there is hell hell hell
lot of liquidity in the world....pumped to avoid default after default after
default without any gdp growth........
see i didn't watch any
interview.....
i just opened the 10yr
chart
with a mood to analyze
this aspect
and look what has just
sneaked in my head
RUSSIA:
wherein, motilal oswal
guy was stating that, market often makes bottom when 99% people believe that
market is heading even lower and start to sell their portfolios in Losses
assuming that, they will enter at lower levels
could be
I don’t say it would
not.. go down from here
CHINA:
motilal oswal is a big
big name. i agree with him
RUSSIA:
but wondering what will
be the spare of Indian economy after such down falls
CHINA:
but a lot lot people are
looking for upside as well
if we analyze indian
economy, we may be shocked!
RUSSIA:
yar, there are always 2
sides of a coin, people are bullish & bearish
what shocks you after
analysis ?
CHINA:
local economy mess
coupled with global meltdown can cause this
RUSSIA:
I agree, but still 6%
GDP is better than 2% of the west economy
CHINA:
govt can't take any political
decision. no reforms (much needed) possible till feb elections.
see, the premium indian
markets command is because of 8% growth rate not 6
RUSSIA:
veer ji, I am of a camp,
that nifty may go till about 4000 and make a reasonable ground to invite FIIs
to invest for the next 10 years
CHINA:
ultimately, fundamentals
decide where market goes after all drama
RUSSIA:
3200 is bit too much of
Pessimism
CHINA:
just take the market to
4000, don't need any more pessimism to take it down to 3200
RUSSIA:
correct
CHINA:
let’s ask ourselves a
basic question
today
RUSSIA:
which amount to about
10% down from here
CHINA:
i repeat - today
RUSSIA:
pls
CHINA:
are we seeing economy
improving?
i ask a few qs
1.
interest rate going
down?
not as of now
not today
RUSSIA:
true
CHINA:
2. fresh capacity
building taking place in various sectors?
no
3. is rupee ok
RUSSIA:
no
CHINA:
4.
any chance of 1991 like
policy boost?
this govt is crippled
5.
what's happening
globally? is the worst over?
well,
the worst hasn't yet
started
all europe, china and US
are busy
since 1 year now
to stop the avalanche
how?
mindless liquidity
pumping
where has the money
gone?
nowhere...it is out
there
RUSSIA:
all above is true on the
face of the mirror
CHINA:
has the economic
activity picked up to engage that money
no
ok
forget all this
let us
just try to list pro's
in favour of rise
1.
pl help me
just because it has
fallen so much and
just because indicators
are enough oversold
is no reason for nifty
to go to 6000 and beyond!
RUSSIA:
agree
fully
CHINA:
nifty can't go that up
without fii's
RUSSIA:
very true
CHINA:
fii's are not jerks to
put their money in india...looking at our state of affairs
fii's would like to keep
liquidity to face any eventuality in europe
see. one thing i always
believe in
that
no real turnaround comes
in ;life as well as
economy
till real real trouble
no jerk wakes up till
real crisis
just look at the 10 yr
graph
RUSSIA:
ok
CHINA:
we are slipping since
nov 2010
earlier it looked like
some correction
now it looks like
slippage
2003 to 2007 was
different
RUSSIA:
but, we haven’t reach a
level... where our economy has to see the graveyard
in such times only,
smart money is invested... check what major investors like Jhunjunwala did in
the past
CHINA:
there was no graveyard
situation in 2008 as well
conditions got created
RUSSIA:
but veer ji, Guys invested
in 2008 have made money even till now
let me prove it
pls allow me
TCS was below 600 now
1155
pls note Kotak was 280.
I bought touched 900 before split and even now 455
SBI / TATA STEEL / even
mid caps were dam cheap except the infra sector
almost all stocks bought
in 2008 gave good returns
I will share an excel
sheet with you
right away
I am not saying by any
mean that, WE ARE NOT IN MESS
CHINA:
times change
and we are at one of
these historic turning points
RUSSIA:
agree.. but cannot rule
out the turnaround could be for positive even ..
one thing I have learnt
CHINA:
yes, it can be. we
should indentify the trend
RUSSIA:
Stock market world wide
CHINA:
courtesy u
i have been
pushed to start looking
at swings
RUSSIA:
discounts all what is to
happen ( Future)
CHINA:
i disagree with this a
bit
this is spread by big
money
big money knows it is
going to do what it is.
goldman sachhs knew that
subprime collapse was coming
infact they had betted
heavily on it
RUSSIA:
before a company starts
to performs, you will see the stock jumping up with the next quarter results
CHINA:
only they and players
like that knew it
RUSSIA:
i am no where denying it
CHINA:
u know the difference
between halaal and jhatka!
fii's believe in halaal
termination
by that definition they
are................
RUSSIA:
all I am saying is... we
may well be close to bottom as well and things may start to change now... I
remember my early days of speaking with you, where in you yourself mentioned...
that, In your views...
Market has either
entered or about to enter for a long bullish trend
CHINA:
RUSSIA even i am
learning,
RUSSIA:
we all for that matter
in punjabi there is a
proverb..
CHINA:
as a trader i like up as
well as down equally.....u as an investor + trader naturally need to be worried
pl
RUSSIA:
Ghar Pakki vekh ke kachi
ni thahi di
I invested by mistake at
the peak of 2007. and saw meltdown in 2008/2009
CHINA:
i'm sure u and i will
atleast be cautious after this
discussion'
RUSSIA:
with bank going out of
business ... us market being killed
yet , they are much
better than any of us
today our problem is in
2 areas
1) Inflation which
directly results in interest rate
2) Govt need to get up
to do something on policy
Milesh shah is the best
tech guy I respect the most in the stock market
The Guy behind ICICI
prudentional
now with AXIS BANK a
fund manager
as Fund manager
CHINA:
yes, but govt is
presently in minority. unable to get anything passed....just see fdi in
retail.....opposition will want to kill the deeply injured govt
completely.......no 1991 for another year.
what does milesh say?
RUSSIA:
He did say.. that FIIs
are so smart that, while they sell they also make market so lazy and Tired
that, Investor lose interest and in suicidal thoughts, often kill their portfolio
by jumping in the well
CHINA:
well, has such a
scenario come?
RUSSIA:
and FIIs buy
CHINA:
if not yet, it is on the
cards?
RUSSIA:
to be honest.. I don’t
know
But one thing I know
for sure
Investor never lose
money
trader does
u may have to wait for
some time
But lf one is investor
3 year down the line
CHINA:
pl add a few words in
that line "Investor never loose money" so that i agree
that
RUSSIA:
the same money gives you
atleast 2 times
CHINA:
Investor never lose
money IN FUTURE-SECURE BUSINESSES
RUSSIA:
See, the definition of an
investor is not, That you invest today and keep your neck again and again on
the screen
I have something to
share here
Milesh said once
CHINA:
yesterday, ;looked at
suzlon after a long time. i had last bought it at 110 and sold at 123. yday, it
was 18
pl
RUSSIA:
That, Even when u plant
a seed of mango tree... you got to wait for 12 years to get mangos..
I know brother
some sector never saw
the sunshine in last 2 years
I will tell you
something
There was stock call Raj
infra or something like that... was available for just 60 paisa in 1990
to 1992
nobody bought
some did
stock now is 125
another example
HUL ... darling company
agree ?
CHINA:
i agree.....
RUSSIA:
do you agree ?
did not do anything in
the last 10 years
stock was below 150
for all this while
now 425
what I am trying to say
is... A specific sector
does great stuff in a
particular time
CHINA:
RUSSIA, why not act as a
"fund manager" instead of an "investor"
RUSSIA:
one has to identify
hahhahah
not my cup
CHINA:
150 in bank would have
become 600 in 8 yrs
no no, u got me wrong
what i mean with
"acting like a fund manager" is
that we should not be
emotional with specific stocks
and be cunning like a
bania
RUSSIA:
correct
that’s ryt
veer ji, you must notice
one thing
CHINA:
put money where rokra is
RUSSIA:
get this very clearly
CHINA:
RUSSIA, life is short.
need to see money multiply
i also agree that
surplus ,money can be invested..
should be invested
RUSSIA:
what happen when RBI is
on the run to increase the interest rate
market often get in the
same mode as we witness today
i have something to
share with you
let
me call you
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