Sunday, January 24, 2010

Trends and Ranges

Mercifully, sensex and stocks have only 2 dimensional space to move. At any given time, it can either go up or down. Also, it can't move up or down without trends.

Trends can be shortlived or long but trends have to be there. Sensex can't move up or down more than 1-2% while consolidating or ranging.

So, the obvious lesson is to avoid the rangings and wait till the trends surface AND THEN RIDE THEM.

In a bull run, +ive trend continues from 7 to 3 months depending upon the stage of the bull run (later the faster) while corrections can continue from 1 month to 15 days depending upon the stage of the overall bull run (later the slower).

Similarly, in a bear rally, falls continue for around 2-2.5 months while pull-up relief rallies from 1-1.5 months.

The pity is majority retail traders are hyper active in rangings and late entrants in trends. Actually, they burn their fingers deeply in rangings so much so that they don't notice or enter the trend because of fear.

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