Tuesday, November 11, 2025

does option spread actually tell you direction of price?

I am going to share something that some or many of you may not agree. I studied deeply the effect of options spread OI (Open Interest) on price movement, away from expiry and near the expiry. And this conclusion is what I have come to believe:-

1. 

Open interest has no effect on price movement. It shows the interest of number of players. It may serve as a mass reaction level, but it has no effect on price movement or direction. 

Reason? 

Option writers/operators are only interested in the premium. Any strike price a retail trader wants, they will happily write a cheque and sell that option. whatever strike price! whatever quantity! 

The secret is that operators have written all strike prices from the floor to the sky. They know, even if the price moves, their loss of intrinsic value will be offset by the gain in the intrinsic value of the other option (put or call). They are not bothered by the strike price, only the premium. Whichever way the market goes, they make money via premium. They are not after intrinsic value per se. For that, they buy cash or futures imho. So, all this noise about strike price OI barrier is an eyewash and a distraction. Otherwise how do you explain big moves on expiry day? Every once in a while, you see 5 rupee call becoming 150 or 300, piercing through the OI thick walls. 

Markets move options, not the other way around. If the market has to move, operators will drag the options, period.

2. So, what actually matters in options spreads? It is the premium.  That too, you can't use to guess the direction. operators start with a "predetermined" premium of at-the-money option and work the rest premium on both sides. Thereafter they keep increasing the premium the side the herd rushes and keep crashing or maintaining the rest. 

Even a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day.

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