Sunday, November 23, 2025

Why market moves against us the moment we enter

 It looks like the market goes the other way the moment you enter. 

But in reality there is hidden reason to that perception

It indirectly means

- that you simply fell into operator emotional trap and succumbed to the fear or bait by buying wrong side

- ⁠or that you were not expecting normal vibration volatility of market (which is almost always there)

- ⁠or You have bitten more than you can keep in mouth

- ⁠or that you don’t have a system or don’t have confidence enough in it that you can bet your sum for some loss

Why Retail Traders Wait for a Correction… but Don’t Enter When the Correction Actually Comes

 


1. They plan with logic… but face the market with emotion.

Before the correction, they are calm and rational:

“If Nifty comes to 23,500, I will definitely buy.”

When it actually comes, the screen is full of red, news is negative, and emotion replaces logic.

So the same mind now says:

“Maybe it will fall more… let me wait.”


2. Falling prices feel unsafe even if they are fundamentally cheap.

Humans equate falling prices with danger.

When prices rise, the brain feels reward.

When prices fall, the brain feels threat.

So buying during a fall goes against our biological wiring.


3. They underestimate how corrections look and feel in real time.

On paper: “10% correction → buy zone.”

In real time:

  • Volatility spikes
  • Red candles everywhere
  • Social media panic
  • Headlines predicting market crashes
    The environment looks hostile.
    So they freeze.


4. The fear of catching a falling knife.

They don’t know if the correction is a shallow dip, a deep correction, or the start of a bear market.

This uncertainty stops action


5. No predefined entry method.

Most retail traders say “I’ll buy the dip” but they have:


  • No fixed level
  • No allocation plan
  • No confirmation signal
  • No sizing strategy
    So when the dip actually comes, they don’t know how to enter.


6. They want the “perfect bottom.”

They think:

“Why buy at 23,500? Maybe it will fall to 23,000.”

Then:

“Why buy at 23,000? Maybe 22,500.”

Trying to catch the exact bottom means they miss the whole move.


7. Recency bias takes over.



If the last few candles are red, the mind assumes the next ones will also be red.

So even a great long-term level looks scary.

8. They follow others more than their own plan.

When the market falls, YouTube/Twitter/WhatsApp suddenly turn bearish.

People hear:


  • “This is the start of a crash.”
  • “Be cautious.”
  • “More downside possible.”
    They defer to others’ emotions instead of their own plan.

9. No training in acting under stress.

Buying during a correction is emotionally hard.

Retail never trains for emotional discomfort.

Professionals expect discomfort.

They even measure it.


10. Loss avoidance is stronger than profit desire.

The pain of losing money is 2.5x stronger than the pleasure of gaining it.

This is scientifically proven (Prospect Theory).

So when correction comes, pain dominates.

———
Same logic applies while exiting….
———-

So, without homework, without risk management and without courage, expecting stock market success is false hope IMO

My nifty view (23 Nov)

Dear all

Good morning

Sunday review

Gift nifty chart is usually different from Nifty especially after market hours. Nifty chart is correlated but independent

Nifty is bearish on charts as per my reading. Even gift nifty expected to slip in morning before or after market opening. 

There is 75% chance imo (nothing is 100% in market)

Nasdaq is also bearish as per charts

Indian rupee also likely to weaken even further as per charts after Friday shock. 

Volatility and whipsaws and bluffs are tools of operators to shake out majority retail traders. The only way to survive that is by managing fear. And that can be done, from my experience, only by holding quantity which doesn’t give anxiety. 

Most retail traders are right in direction but fail to hold because of fear. 

If in such situation lighten your position to comfort level. Slow (and steady) always wins. 

If a trader survives the market for sufficiently long, he she will surely amass good money

(I share my nifty view daily through whatsapp with subscribers along with free daily nifty trade ideas for a nominal support to this blog of Rs.3000/- pm. Only Sunday or periodic view shared in blog)


Jagmohan

8219414014

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Traders should use technicals, not fundamentals

 Fundamentals are Good for investing. For traders it is timing. 

Also mid cap and small caps have to see something else imho. Portfolios bleeding and many stocks will never recover to their purchase price. Trading is altogether different game than investing. Fundamentals are semi mirage for the retail traders  

If good fundamentals were correct for trading all long side trades would have made money

Fundamentals are not usable for traders. IMHO. Traders can exploit the news but not for long. 

Traders should keep away from fundamentals. Charts are the final cocktail of all truth and bluff. ‎

In short term market scenarios, Operators decide and start planning 2-3 days in advance and trigger implementation half day in advance  

Take advantage of the stories in trading, don’t believe them  


[15/11/25, 7:18:12 PM] Friday Trainers: Retail traders are slaughter sheep lured by fundamental grass….. self talk


Saturday, November 15, 2025

5 stages AFTER trading success

 5 stages AFTER trading success


1. disbelief : that you are finally succeeding

2. ⁠euphoria: goes to the head

3. awakening : that success is not without conditions

4. ⁠self assurance: that it can continue

5. ⁠comfort zone : success is naturalised. ready for the next level.

Thursday, November 13, 2025

What gave me confidence to try trading

 The reason I got seriously interested in trading were mainly 2

1. I didn’t have capital and experience of normal trading/business

2. I saw my friends trading in vegetables apples etc (adhatees)आढ़ती trading similarly too saw people trading in stocks. Friends trading in apples etc weren’t using charts for fluctuations but judgements using experience. This assured me that trading in stocks is just like that but much easier and scalable

Self talk

Handpump trading method


Replying to MMA

[13/11/25, 11:34:31 AM] Friday Trainers: I book in steps

Step 1: comfort zone

Step 2: greed zone

Step 3: fear zone

Fear zone is final sell zone on that time line ‎<This message was edited>

[13/11/25, 11:36:00 AM] Friday Trainers: I mean 1/3,1/3,1/3

Or 50%, 25%, 25%

I often get chance to re-enter top up this way

[13/11/25, 11:37:00 AM] Friday Trainers: Reply to your message second portion

When nifty starts going down without signal, I generally take advantage by topping up step by step

Like today

[13/11/25, 11:37:46 AM] Friday Trainers: That possible only if we trade small and homework is strong and we keep booking in steps like an amateur

Small steps go far. V far

[13/11/25, 11:38:18 AM] Friday Trainers: Whatever I top up I book for 10-15-20 points with thanks

[13/11/25, 11:38:46 AM] Friday Trainers: Handpump method

Repeated a number of times for small strokes of water 💧

[13/11/25, 11:40:59 AM] Friday Trainers: There is advantage of every disadvantage operators throw at us. 

Eg volatility by operators gives us (almost assures us) multiple entries

So why fear small bite size profits.


Wednesday, November 12, 2025

When to use weekly options and when monthly?

 Broadly speaking, Weekly options are 4 times cheaper but 2 times slower, for similar stake positions. So, in effect, weekly options are net 2 times cheaper. With the only big disadvantage of having 4 times less time than monthly expiry. 

Therefore, weekly options are particularly suitable for those who are sure that sharp movement is expected in one two particular days, want to take more position with v less amount and risk. 

Weekly options are quick surgical strikes and monthly options are battles. 

Both are different tools for different scenarios. 

Hero or Zero trades with weekly expiries is a concept often looked down upon but is a very capable tool for less and controlled risk with high possible reward. Deserves more respect than it is given. Particularly useful for amateurs who bleed in bigger positions ADHD can’t hold positions in volatile markets. 

Weekly options trades have to be timing beauties 

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

does option spread actually tell you direction of price?

I am going to share something that some or many of you may not agree. I studied deeply the effect of options spread OI (Open Interest) on price movement, away from expiry and near the expiry. And this conclusion is what I have come to believe:-

1. 

Open interest has no effect on price movement. It shows the interest of number of players. It may serve as a mass reaction level, but it has no effect on price movement or direction. 

Reason? 

Option writers/operators are only interested in the premium. Any strike price a retail trader wants, they will happily write a cheque and sell that option. whatever strike price! whatever quantity! 

The secret is that operators have written all strike prices from the floor to the sky. They know, even if the price moves, their loss of intrinsic value will be offset by the gain in the intrinsic value of the other option (put or call). They are not bothered by the strike price, only the premium. Whichever way the market goes, they make money via premium. They are not after intrinsic value per se. For that, they buy cash or futures imho. So, all this noise about strike price OI barrier is an eyewash and a distraction. Otherwise how do you explain big moves on expiry day? Every once in a while, you see 5 rupee call becoming 150 or 300, piercing through the OI thick walls. 

Markets move options, not the other way around. If the market has to move, operators will drag the options, period.

2. So, what actually matters in options spreads? It is the premium.  That too, you can't use to guess the direction. operators start with a "predetermined" premium of at-the-money option and work the rest premium on both sides. Thereafter they keep increasing the premium the side the herd rushes and keep crashing or maintaining the rest. 

Even a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day.

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Beating the street?

In trading we think we have to beat other traders or beat the market.  whereas in reality we have to beat ourselves by saying No to our temptations, internal mental chatter asms indiscipline, habits and fear….. self talk

Monday, November 3, 2025

How to increase your wins

 How to increase your winning percentage and survive operator games?

If you generally take 3lots take 1. If you generally take 10lots take 3. 

Imagine what all you can do with remaining money you held back

If your direction decision was wrong, you’ll lose less.  If your direction decision was right but market temporarily goes in other direction, you will have lesser anxiety and option to average. 

You’ll still be left with option to average more later if required. 

But if you use all your comfort capital at the start you are left with no comfort room

Operators and strong hands know that and take advantage. They know you’ll throw in the towel if stressed beyond a point

Always take v less lots. You should dare market to take all. It won’t in most cases if you  do your homework right.  

Even one lot of options has 5lac equivalent exposure. 

Never bet everything immediately.

If you lose, lose gracefully admitting that your homework was deficient. But your homework can be proved wrong only if given sufficient time to be checked.

90% traders lose despite being right 50% time. Because they throw in the towel. Make this change and see magic happen.