A fraud called bitcoin

 Bitcoin, like any other similar currency is mother of all bubbles (Roubini), rat poison (Buffet), solution in search of a problem (Paul Krugman), a greater fool’s investment (Bill Gates), fraud (Jamie Dimon)….

While block chain technology is genuine, bitcoin and alike are temporary fads. 

Limited money supply is a recipe for financial disaster as much as too much of supply.  

The day there is really a world crisis, God forbid, no one will give a coin against bitcoin. Gold is trusted by billions since centuries. US is too early into bitcoin and China not too late. 

We are heading for spectacular world chaos in coming years IMO

Nasdaq peaking?

 I’m repeatedly bewildered to see Nasdaq rise 1%, 2%, daily or most of the time, day after day while other markets, including India struggling.  Nasdaq is only rising. Rising and rising….And that’s only because of handful of companies. Is it a bubble in formation. 

So, Was checking Nasdaq chart. And found the fly 🪰 in 1 day tick chart. 

It is in v dangerous territory and hinting at a bad crash in November. Let’s see

Caution 🚨

Extra smart customer?

Customer: what’s the price of this

Shopkeeper:400

Customer: It is too high. Give me for 200

Shopkeeper: not possible as of now

Customer: Bye 

(Goes)

Shopkeeper calls from behind: price offer of 150 has just come for 1hour

Customer: call me when it is for free

Shopkeeper: sure😊

What’s your trading algo?

 Trading coach : what’s your trading algo?

Trader: I don’t do algo trading

Coach: your entry, exit and sizing logic is your algo, whether programmed or in the head

Trader: I trade on gut feeling

Coach: do you feel greed or fear when that gut feeling comes?

Trader: No fear or greed, just a gut feeling out of experience

Coach:👍

Rules of trading are opposite to rules of life

 

1. In life you protect your ego; in trading you protect your capital.
2. In life persistence pays; in trading persistence in a wrong position destroys.
3. In life more effort brings reward; in trading more effort brings overtrading.
4. In life big risks bring big success; in trading big risks bring ruin.
5. In life experience makes you wiser; in trading experience can make you biased.
6. In life you plan and predict; in trading you react and adapt.
7. In life emotions make you human; in trading emotions make you vulnerable.
8. In life control is power; in trading surrender to uncertainty is power.
9. In life reputation matters; in trading only results matter.
10. In life you seek to be right; in trading you seek to stay solvent.
11. In life hustlers win. In trading lazy win. 

Why trade with less lots

 If your trade is right, even less lots will have effect of more. But if your trade is not right, even more lots will not be of any help. In fact, loss on more trades will do much more damage. 

So, always trade with less lots (eat less than hunger, trade less than you want to). 

Trading with peace of mind =trading without fear +ability to take trading signals

IPOs and BTST

 There are many success stories of “investors” who trade the IPOs. 

They are not investors in strict sense. Just traders. In fact not even traders, but scalpers of cash and carry. 

They just apply for IPO share allotment and when they get, which happens often, they offload immediately on opening day.  In profit; which often ranges from 5 to 50% (sometimes even more), rarely in loss. 

I know many such investor scalpers who do nothing else in market except this and have made good money. They are willing to bid for even PP Waterballs (remember Jaspal Bhatti?)

They don’t mess around in trading if they are not comfortable, especially when they keep getting good net returns in IPOs. They have multiple demat accounts in the name of their family members. 

Good strategy. 

Last minute BTST is also like quick instant gain opportunity at listing of IPO. 

No waiting, binary good chance. And you don’t need to risk anything during day time and thus avoiding operator manipulation  

And this opportunity comes daily. Just judge the overall short term trend and take trade in the last minute. It is likely to work like IPO majority times. 

Just that the direction judgement has to be well judged.

Benchmark for number of day trades

 At any given time

There is one trade on 15 minute chart in 2-3 days

1-2 trades on 5 min chart per day

3-7 trades on 1 min chart per day

The last one is to be avoided except scalping.

Why 95% lose in trading?

 Market can only go up or down. So 50% win is assured. Then why 95% lose in trading?

Reasons are a few

First 95% losers are not number of trade wise. But net loss wise. 

And that is because traders book profit early and book loss late. Fear Psychology does that. One big loss wipes out 5-10 profits. 

Second, even number of trades wise, traders lose much more than 50% trades (~66%) because they trade on common mass herd sentiment built on public forums like business channels, groups etc. 50% win rate is statistically true only if trades taken randomly without any external influence or with fixed rules. 

Forget all chart lines and…

 Trading self tip: 

Remove and forget all chart lines, forget all projections every morning. 

Draw fresh lines, reach fresh understanding and trade with fresh mind. 

If new lines and inferences tally with previous ones, they only reinforce it all. But go back to the drawing board honestly every morning before opening. 

Being successful trader is like…

 Being a successful trader Is like being a wildlife professional. Catching the right trade Is like catching a snake or crocodile or beast etc without getting hurt. 

You have to wait. You have to observe. You have to learn and practice the skill. 

You have to be bold and yet be well protected. 

You do sometimes miss catching the target. It’s not always successful. That’s ok. But you always have to get away almost unscathed in every failed attempt. 

Finally you do get it. Always. 

And the success ratio improves over time  

Trading is not bravado. It is livelihood. It is a job to be done well and calmly.