Easy money?

 People say stock market money is an easy money. Actually it is the most difficult money. Well earned. 

It becomes easy only after you cross the difficulty mountain. 

Almost all retail traders get frustrated with the uncomfortable difficult ugly situations market puts you in daily. Trading situation every morning and afternoon are uncomfortable. Everyone tries to hate dislike and avoid them. But the fact is markets are built that way. Difficult situations won’t go away. You have to learn facing and being ok with them. Just like doctors in emergency room. 

Earlier you become comfortable with facing the uncomfortable, earlier you will progress. That becomes the boundary between struggling and successful traders or businessmen

Don’t whip yourself

 Never whip yourself for what you miss. But always pat your own back for what you catch. 

Because what you appreciate grows your confidence and what you curse makes it fear next step. 

It is like a baby learning to walk before he runs before he springs...

Gradually, the misses reduce and catches increase.... Self talk

Why small options are better

 The logic of taking small option is very simple. 

If the direction is right, even small option will become quite big BUT if the direction is wrong, even big option cannot save you. In fact that will be disastrous. So, it is always better to trade in small options  

We have to just avoid losing big. Profit will come eventually inevitably 

Even Charlie Munger used to say…we have to avoid wrong decisions. It is not critical to take lot of right decisions to be super successful. Ask we have to ensure is that we don’t do anything stupid or don’t do too many wrong things. Once that is ensured big success comes sooner or later. We have to stay in the game long enough.

Also, since fear factor is not there one can hold without panicking

Why market moves against us the moment we enter

 It looks like the market goes the other way the moment you enter. 

But in reality there is hidden reason to that perception

It indirectly means

- that you simply fell into operator emotional trap and succumbed to the fear or bait by buying wrong side

- ⁠or that you were not expecting normal vibration volatility of market (which is almost always there)

- ⁠or You have bitten more than you can keep in mouth

- ⁠or that you don’t have a system or don’t have confidence enough in it that you can bet your sum for some loss

Why Retail Traders Wait for a Correction… but Don’t Enter When the Correction Actually Comes

 

1. They plan with logic… but face the market with emotion.

Before the correction, they are calm and rational:

“If Nifty comes to 23,500, I will definitely buy.”

When it actually comes, the screen is full of red, news is negative, and emotion replaces logic.

So the same mind now says:

“Maybe it will fall more… let me wait.”

2. Falling prices feel unsafe even if they are fundamentally cheap.

Humans equate falling prices with danger.

When prices rise, the brain feels reward.

When prices fall, the brain feels threat.

So buying during a fall goes against our biological wiring.

3. They underestimate how corrections look and feel in real time.

On paper: “10% correction → buy zone.”

In real time:

• Volatility spikes
• Red candles everywhere
• Social media panic
• Headlines predicting market crashes
  The environment looks hostile.
  So they freeze.

4. The fear of catching a falling knife.

They don’t know if the correction is a shallow dip, a deep correction, or the start of a bear market.

This uncertainty stops action

5. No predefined entry method.

Most retail traders say “I’ll buy the dip” but they have:

• No fixed level
• No allocation plan
• No confirmation signal
• No sizing strategy
  So when the dip actually comes, they don’t know how to enter.

6. They want the “perfect bottom.”

They think:

“Why buy at 23,500? Maybe it will fall to 23,000.”

Then:

“Why buy at 23,000? Maybe 22,500.”

Trying to catch the exact bottom means they miss the whole move.

7. Recency bias takes over.

If the last few candles are red, the mind assumes the next ones will also be red.

So even a great long-term level looks scary.

8. They follow others more than their own plan.

When the market falls, YouTube/Twitter/WhatsApp suddenly turn bearish.

People hear:

• “This is the start of a crash.”
• “Be cautious.”
• “More downside possible.”
  They defer to others’ emotions instead of their own plan.

9. No training in acting under stress.

Buying during a correction is emotionally hard.

Retail never trains for emotional discomfort.

Professionals expect discomfort.

They even measure it.

10. Loss avoidance is stronger than profit desire.

The pain of losing money is 2.5x stronger than the pleasure of gaining it.

This is scientifically proven (Prospect Theory).

So when correction comes, pain dominates.

———

Same logic applies while exiting….

———-

So, without homework, without risk management and without courage, expecting stock market success is false hope IMO

My nifty view (23 Nov)

Dear all

Good morning

Sunday review

Gift nifty chart is usually different from Nifty especially after market hours. Nifty chart is correlated but independent

Nifty is bearish on charts as per my reading. Even gift nifty expected to slip in morning before or after market opening. 

There is 75% chance imo (nothing is 100% in market)

Nasdaq is also bearish as per charts

Indian rupee also likely to weaken even further as per charts after Friday shock. 

Volatility and whipsaws and bluffs are tools of operators to shake out majority retail traders. The only way to survive that is by managing fear. And that can be done, from my experience, only by holding quantity which doesn’t give anxiety. 

Most retail traders are right in direction but fail to hold because of fear. 

If in such situation lighten your position to comfort level. Slow (and steady) always wins. 

If a trader survives the market for sufficiently long, he she will surely amass good money

(I share my nifty view daily through whatsapp with subscribers along with free daily nifty trade ideas for a nominal support to this blog of Rs.3000/- pm. Only Sunday or periodic view shared in blog)

Jagmohan

8219414014

Traders should use technicals, not fundamentals

 Fundamentals are Good for investing. For traders it is timing. 

Also mid cap and small caps have to see something else imho. Portfolios bleeding and many stocks will never recover to their purchase price. Trading is altogether different game than investing. Fundamentals are semi mirage for the retail traders  

If good fundamentals were correct for trading all long side trades would have made money

Fundamentals are not usable for traders. IMHO. Traders can exploit the news but not for long. 

Traders should keep away from fundamentals. Charts are the final cocktail of all truth and bluff. ‎

In short term market scenarios, Operators decide and start planning 2-3 days in advance and trigger implementation half day in advance  

Take advantage of the stories in trading, don’t believe them  

[15/11/25, 7:18:12 PM] Friday Trainers: Retail traders are slaughter sheep lured by fundamental grass….. self talk

5 stages AFTER trading success

 5 stages AFTER trading success

1. disbelief : that you are finally succeeding

2. ⁠euphoria: goes to the head

3. awakening : that success is not without conditions

4. ⁠self assurance: that it can continue

5. ⁠comfort zone : success is naturalised. ready for the next level.

What gave me confidence to try trading

 The reason I got seriously interested in trading were mainly 2

1. I didn’t have capital and experience of normal trading/business

2. I saw my friends trading in vegetables apples etc (adhatees)आढ़ती trading similarly too saw people trading in stocks. Friends trading in apples etc weren’t using charts for fluctuations but judgements using experience. This assured me that trading in stocks is just like that but much easier and scalable

Self talk

Handpump trading method

Replying to MMA

[13/11/25, 11:34:31 AM] Friday Trainers: I book in steps

Step 1: comfort zone

Step 2: greed zone

Step 3: fear zone

Fear zone is final sell zone on that time line ‎<This message was edited>

[13/11/25, 11:36:00 AM] Friday Trainers: I mean 1/3,1/3,1/3

Or 50%, 25%, 25%

I often get chance to re-enter top up this way

[13/11/25, 11:37:00 AM] Friday Trainers: Reply to your message second portion

When nifty starts going down without signal, I generally take advantage by topping up step by step

Like today

[13/11/25, 11:37:46 AM] Friday Trainers: That possible only if we trade small and homework is strong and we keep booking in steps like an amateur

Small steps go far. V far

[13/11/25, 11:38:18 AM] Friday Trainers: Whatever I top up I book for 10-15-20 points with thanks

[13/11/25, 11:38:46 AM] Friday Trainers: Handpump method

Repeated a number of times for small strokes of water 💧

[13/11/25, 11:40:59 AM] Friday Trainers: There is advantage of every disadvantage operators throw at us. 

Eg volatility by operators gives us (almost assures us) multiple entries

So why fear small bite size profits.

When to use weekly options and when monthly?

 Broadly speaking, Weekly options are 4 times cheaper but 2 times slower, for similar stake positions. So, in effect, weekly options are net 2 times cheaper. With the only big disadvantage of having 4 times less time than monthly expiry. 

Therefore, weekly options are particularly suitable for those who are sure that sharp movement is expected in one two particular days, want to take more position with v less amount and risk. 

Weekly options are quick surgical strikes and monthly options are battles. 

Both are different tools for different scenarios. 

Hero or Zero trades with weekly expiries is a concept often looked down upon but is a very capable tool for less and controlled risk with high possible reward. Deserves more respect than it is given. Particularly useful for amateurs who bleed in bigger positions ADHD can’t hold positions in volatile markets. 

Weekly options trades have to be timing beauties 

does option spread actually tell you direction of price?

I am going to share something that some or many of you may not agree. I studied deeply the effect of options spread OI (Open Interest) on price movement, away from expiry and near the expiry. And this conclusion is what I have come to believe:-

1. 

Open interest has no effect on price movement. It shows the interest of number of players. It may serve as a mass reaction level, but it has no effect on price movement or direction. 

Reason? 

Option writers/operators are only interested in the premium. Any strike price a retail trader wants, they will happily write a cheque and sell that option. whatever strike price! whatever quantity! 

The secret is that operators have written all strike prices from the floor to the sky. They know, even if the price moves, their loss of intrinsic value will be offset by the gain in the intrinsic value of the other option (put or call). They are not bothered by the strike price, only the premium. Whichever way the market goes, they make money via premium. They are not after intrinsic value per se. For that, they buy cash or futures imho. So, all this noise about strike price OI barrier is an eyewash and a distraction. Otherwise how do you explain big moves on expiry day? Every once in a while, you see 5 rupee call becoming 150 or 300, piercing through the OI thick walls. 

Markets move options, not the other way around. If the market has to move, operators will drag the options, period.

2. So, what actually matters in options spreads? It is the premium.  That too, you can't use to guess the direction. operators start with a "predetermined" premium of at-the-money option and work the rest premium on both sides. Thereafter they keep increasing the premium the side the herd rushes and keep crashing or maintaining the rest. 

Even a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day.

Beating the street?

In trading we think we have to beat other traders or beat the market.  whereas in reality we have to beat ourselves by saying No to our temptations, internal mental chatter asms indiscipline, habits and fear….. self talk

How to increase your wins

 How to increase your winning percentage and survive operator games?

If you generally take 3lots take 1. If you generally take 10lots take 3. 

Imagine what all you can do with remaining money you held back

If your direction decision was wrong, you’ll lose less.  If your direction decision was right but market temporarily goes in other direction, you will have lesser anxiety and option to average. 

You’ll still be left with option to average more later if required. 

But if you use all your comfort capital at the start you are left with no comfort room

Operators and strong hands know that and take advantage. They know you’ll throw in the towel if stressed beyond a point

Always take v less lots. You should dare market to take all. It won’t in most cases if you  do your homework right.  

Even one lot of options has 5lac equivalent exposure. 

Never bet everything immediately.

If you lose, lose gracefully admitting that your homework was deficient. But your homework can be proved wrong only if given sufficient time to be checked.

90% traders lose despite being right 50% time. Because they throw in the towel. Make this change and see magic happen.

Nasdaq peaking?

 I’m repeatedly bewildered to see Nasdaq rise 1%, 2%, daily or most of the time, day after day while other markets, including India struggling.  Nasdaq is only rising. Rising and rising….And that’s only because of handful of companies. Is it a bubble in formation. 

So, Was checking Nasdaq chart. And found the fly 🪰 in 1 day tick chart. 

It is in v dangerous territory and hinting at a bad crash in November. Let’s see

Caution 🚨

Extra smart customer?

Customer: what’s the price of this

Shopkeeper:400

Customer: It is too high. Give me for 200

Shopkeeper: not possible as of now

Customer: Bye 

(Goes)

Shopkeeper calls from behind: price offer of 150 has just come for 1hour

Customer: call me when it is for free

Shopkeeper: sure😊

What’s your trading algo?

 Trading coach : what’s your trading algo?

Trader: I don’t do algo trading

Coach: your entry, exit and sizing logic is your algo, whether programmed or in the head

Trader: I trade on gut feeling

Coach: do you feel greed or fear when that gut feeling comes?

Trader: No fear or greed, just a gut feeling out of experience

Coach:👍

Rules of trading are opposite to rules of life

 

1. In life you protect your ego; in trading you protect your capital.
2. In life persistence pays; in trading persistence in a wrong position destroys.
3. In life more effort brings reward; in trading more effort brings overtrading.
4. In life big risks bring big success; in trading big risks bring ruin.
5. In life experience makes you wiser; in trading experience can make you biased.
6. In life you plan and predict; in trading you react and adapt.
7. In life emotions make you human; in trading emotions make you vulnerable.
8. In life control is power; in trading surrender to uncertainty is power.
9. In life reputation matters; in trading only results matter.
10. In life you seek to be right; in trading you seek to stay solvent.
11. In life hustlers win. In trading lazy win. 

Why trade with less lots

 If your trade is right, even less lots will have effect of more. But if your trade is not right, even more lots will not be of any help. In fact, loss on more trades will do much more damage. 

So, always trade with less lots (eat less than hunger, trade less than you want to). 

Trading with peace of mind =trading without fear +ability to take trading signals

IPOs and BTST

 There are many success stories of “investors” who trade the IPOs. 

They are not investors in strict sense. Just traders. In fact not even traders, but scalpers of cash and carry. 

They just apply for IPO share allotment and when they get, which happens often, they offload immediately on opening day.  In profit; which often ranges from 5 to 50% (sometimes even more), rarely in loss. 

I know many such investor scalpers who do nothing else in market except this and have made good money. They are willing to bid for even PP Waterballs (remember Jaspal Bhatti?)

They don’t mess around in trading if they are not comfortable, especially when they keep getting good net returns in IPOs. They have multiple demat accounts in the name of their family members. 

Good strategy. 

Last minute BTST is also like quick instant gain opportunity at listing of IPO. 

No waiting, binary good chance. And you don’t need to risk anything during day time and thus avoiding operator manipulation  

And this opportunity comes daily. Just judge the overall short term trend and take trade in the last minute. It is likely to work like IPO majority times. 

Just that the direction judgement has to be well judged.

Benchmark for number of day trades

 At any given time

There is one trade on 15 minute chart in 2-3 days

1-2 trades on 5 min chart per day

3-7 trades on 1 min chart per day

The last one is to be avoided except scalping.

Why 95% lose in trading?

 Market can only go up or down. So 50% win is assured. Then why 95% lose in trading?

Reasons are a few

First 95% losers are not number of trade wise. But net loss wise. 

And that is because traders book profit early and book loss late. Fear Psychology does that. One big loss wipes out 5-10 profits. 

Second, even number of trades wise, traders lose much more than 50% trades (~66%) because they trade on common mass herd sentiment built on public forums like business channels, groups etc. 50% win rate is statistically true only if trades taken randomly without any external influence or with fixed rules. 

Forget all chart lines and…

 Trading self tip: 

Remove and forget all chart lines, forget all projections every morning. 

Draw fresh lines, reach fresh understanding and trade with fresh mind. 

If new lines and inferences tally with previous ones, they only reinforce it all. But go back to the drawing board honestly every morning before opening. 

Being successful trader is like…

 Being a successful trader Is like being a wildlife professional. Catching the right trade Is like catching a snake or crocodile or beast etc without getting hurt. 

You have to wait. You have to observe. You have to learn and practice the skill. 

You have to be bold and yet be well protected. 

You do sometimes miss catching the target. It’s not always successful. That’s ok. But you always have to get away almost unscathed in every failed attempt. 

Finally you do get it. Always. 

And the success ratio improves over time  

Trading is not bravado. It is livelihood. It is a job to be done well and calmly.

Simple history and future of USD

 American dollar had ordinary value

It asked Saudi Arab and others to accept oil payments from countries only in dollar, in exchange for US security 

Every country started buying dollar

Dollar artificially went up in value

Then US could import anything for dirt cheap 

Above that, US kept printing dollar

That meant, US could buy anything for almost free as long as dollar value was many times value of other currencies (actual productivity of US dollar was v v less)

If dollar now losses value, import costs will sky rocket. Dollar hyped value will collapse US will be in deep crisis

15 laws of Opportunities

  

1. Every opportunity has a shelf life– delay too long, and it expires.

2. There is opportunity after every opportunity – missing one doesn’t mean the end.

3. No opportunity is the same – each carries its own timing, risk, and reward.

4. Opportunities rarely announce themselves – they often disguise as problems, risks, or extra work.

5. Preparedness amplifies opportunities – the more ready you are, the bigger the door that opens.

6. Opportunities multiply when acted upon – seizing one often creates more.

7. Most opportunities demand sacrifice – you can’t grab them without letting go of comfort or something else.

8. Perception creates opportunities– two people see the same situation, one sees a problem, the other sees potential.

9. Opportunities test courage more than skill – the fear of failing blocks more doors than lack of ability.

10. Missed opportunities teach, seized opportunities transform – both have value, but only one moves you forward.

11. Opportunities often come dressed as small beginnings – dismissing them as “too small” can cost you something huge later.

12. Not all opportunities are meant for you – chasing every door spreads you thin; wisdom is in choosing.

13. Opportunities respect speed and decisiveness – hesitation is often the difference between getting it and watching someone else take it.

14. The bigger the opportunity, the lonelier the path – few will see what you see, until you make it real.

15. Opportunities compound with relationships – doors open faster and wider through trust, networks, and goodwill.

the Trader with spy mindset

It is sad that people look down upon technicals. Technicals are the footprints of the operators and masses. it is like a Morse code of secret communication. Technical traders have to have the mindset of a spy. 

The best way to master any indicator is to learn in reverse. Mark 100 high and low points of any chart and see what that indicator did at ALL  of those points. the secret will be revealed to you. like Bruce Lee advised, practice one (or select) technical(s) a thousand times....self talk

the mercy of operator

markets give you next pain only when you have forgotten the previous one. so never forget your pain...self talk.

if market is applying savlon to your wounds, be alert.

--

you may not know what the market is going to do, but you can definitely react to what the market has overdone. and overdo it definitely does as part of the game to trap/confuse/bluff.

which strikeprice option to buy?

- very far out of the money, like 5-10 value = for thrill, not trading

- far out of money like 30-35 value = for aggressive betting on profit from earlier trades

- out of the money like 70-100 value = normal trade position

- in the money like 100-150 = when you are confident 

- deep in the money like 250-400 = alternate to buying futures

- deeper in the money = not much extra benefit though risk increases

Once the value of the option enters the next, higher level, you may skim the option to lower/earlier category and take some profit/money off the table.

Caution : Never put 5% (at worst 10%) of your trading capital in single trade.

except aggressive betting of profits of one trade. eg you turn 10 to 12 lac....and want to bet aggressively with that 2 lac profit, provided you have an evolved dependable tested plan. several traders have made big sums with that approach.

should we buy or sell options? my take

Selling options only if you have backup funds to withstand big adverse moves and still have a plan. And when you have that much, it is better to buy stocks the investor way. Almost all big professionals do that. I mean those beyond 10-20cr funds.

I know some traders who made crores, lost crores multiple times selling options. They falter tragically in trending and volatile markets. 

They failed to go beyond a level because they didn’t know how to know the trend, which is the same reason they switched from buying to selling.

IMHO a disciplined, successful options buyer has all it takes to become an investor ultimately. The %cagr on a big corpus makes them financially free without anxiety and still grow their net worth.

--

Traders think that they need more money to buy 100 lots instead of 10 lots. Actually, they need a mindset.

Money comes easily. Mindset doesn’t

--

Mental maturity and stability are required. Not money. Money comes.

Until our thinking changes, our financial standing doesn’t change.

If trading doesn’t change you, you are not progressing

--

Option buying is gear one and two. Not required after 15 km/h and 25 km/h. Option selling is the third gear. Investing is 4th gear and overdrive,

--

Option buying is like buying futures with a premium as interest of borrowing or hafta. People don’t buy options except for the reason that they don’t have larger money. 

Those who have money to short options have either inherited or are blowing their savings OR are geniuses.

--

Both buying and selling are good tools. Nothing wrong with both. Both are different tools for different situations and stages imho.

--

Both shouldn’t be looked down upon. These are not show-off concepts.

I mean buying and selling options

DIIs FIIs use all tools at their disposal as per the situation. They also buy options.

--

It is difficult to make trading difficult

 A trade is like the sail of a wind sail boat. All a trader needs to do is to judge the direction of the wind and adjust the direction of the sail. A trader, like a sailor, can’t decide on the amount of thrust the trade boat will get. That depends upon the velocity of the wind decided by factors not under his control. Big storms or good winds or short bursts come randomly. To be ready to catch them is all that is that a trader sailor has to align with. 

--

Trading is easy because that is all a trader needs to do. The rest market does. It is difficult to imagine that someone may find it difficult to judge the direction of the wind. It is difficult to make trading difficult.

All we have to decide is whether to buy a put or call. One of them is always right. It is the only gambling with a 50% assured result. We still lose because we either buy too big to hold without anxiety, or we change our mind at the drop of a hat, or we don’t have any logic to pick the trade side. Self talk

my notes on US Tariff saga

 if there is no trade barrier, efficient countries/businesses will eat the inefficient

--

but that is ok if every country has a niche

--

but those who don't have a niche, they'll perish

--

if tariffs are similarly high for all, the one with the trade deficit will be at loss

--

and if they opt for not importing, the global quality of life will be seriously hit

--

and then, the rich countries will predate the poor. because military power = economic power. poor won't be able to defend themselves

--

US trying to force enter the inefficient beyond its already high trade surplus.

--

those without efficiency niche will get destroyed, those with efficiency will get partially saved.

--

US will become uncompetitive in the world where it is depending on raw material imports. unless it removes duty on those things

--

US has destabilized/kicked a highly sensitive and complex domino system

--

it is an act of global sabotage

--

it is a mind-numbing gamble on global scale

--

US should have exempted non self-reliant raw material imports

--

because of retaliatory counter tariffs, US is shutting the global market gates on itself where other competitors are there without those tariffs

--

only local nationalistic boycotts can help, temporarily, and to some extent...once the disadvantaged coerced countries lift tariffs for US. afterall, even US exporters wont be giving you anything without you actually paying for it.

--

you don't need to protect your strengths.

--

US is just trying, in futility, to protect its weaknesses while gambling to get into inefficient bazars for incremental export addition.

--

China did all that, but dramatically increasing productivity and innovation, and long-term strategy, not in this crude fashion. this act of US only shows that US has run out of ideas, or is hiding some other underlying mega-crisis

--

US is betting on countering impending inflation with increased revenue from exports. but inflation marred people are not the same as export incentive beneficiaries. this will lead to unrest in the masses soon.

--

US policy is inclined towards corporates, but they too may be hit by avalanche of side-effects 

--

this act has been done/started with recklessness.

--

all this may help China and its proxies

--

those countries which are not in a position to negotiate tariffs may lost to those who can, further widening the rift between have and have not countries

--

this is much more devatating disruption than it is looking to be

--

it is equivalent to WW3

--

may lead to unthinkable collateral damage and consequences unaffordable

--

serious chances of down circuits in the global markets in coming days...

--

unless US subsidizes the costlier imports, inflation of un-substitutable imports will be swift.

--

habit changing of US consumers will be painful, and hence not happening

-

susbidy anyways will be laughable, akin to funding the tarrifs on the very countries slapped with tariffs.

--

till this mess is sorted out, global orders pipeline will crash/dry up

--

it is covid like disruption in scale albeit with longer term serious disrupotion

--

prices may shoot up globally for the items where there is a global scramble to replace US as supplier. and the prices may crash for the items which the supplier countries may divert elsewhere in distress selling once the demand in US slumps

--

if the US feels that it is losing or realizes that it has blundered, it may opt for flexing its military might in frustration.

This may be the end of NATO alliance

--

china may emerge as a saviour, albeit at a cost

--

strong domestic economies may survive with lesser trauma.

--

US currency will start losing its status as global currency

--

is it the definitive beginning of the end of the US dominance?

--

US has lost credibility and trust. It was still great, before this madness to make it great "again"