Wednesday, August 21, 2024

should we have standing Stoploss orders?

If your opponent knows your surrender point, he will exploit it. 

Stoploss points, therefore, should be in mind, not in system IMHO, unless you're scalping or there is some other compelling argument. 

They can see it!

Even otherwise, sudden moves are known to open jump stop losses

Friday, August 9, 2024

saying NO to trades

trading is like a property dealer or used car sale/purchase business. 

you often get only 1-2 clients in a day...sometimes in a week. most of those opportunities are not juicy, there isn't enough risk reward in your favour. you have to say "no" to most of them. if you say "yes" to every trade that comes your way, you are not a trader, someone has "traded" with you. 

but every now and then you come across a genuine trade that has risk reward ratio tilted in your favour. that trade should be taken and remaining left. boredom is the cost of safety from loss.....self talk

the game is squeezed in that 20% portion

Trading is a 80/20 game. If you miss the 20% chance of winning the pounds, you struggle for remaining 80% time for pennies…

Therefore you have to have a top-class system which catches edges reasonably accurately, you’ve to have discipline and mental condition to stick to that system and survive that 80% uncertainty to catch that 20%.

If you miss the meat, you’re left with the bare bones.

the game is squeezed in that 20% portion, your system should be capable of pointing out the high probability zone of that 20%. Otherwise, you will keep struggling for the consistency.

Same is true for investing. 

only forehand or backend trading

trade only one side (for a day/swing/trend/day/time period) based on the judgement of the trend direction)

either buy on dips or sell on rise

avoid both side trades

nothing confuses and forces wrong trades like both side trade

losses of wrong judgement are half or less when you take trades only on one direction...

if your one side trade is failing, most likely the trend is on the other side... a good system spots that before trading. 

Monday, August 5, 2024

Fearing the FOMO

 Let me share an observation. Any big rise or fall is actually in two parts, like a movie with interval. 

Check any sharp spike or crash on any chart. Chances are you will see that there was a kink or pause in the chart near 50% mark. Between 40-60%. 

Pl do check

 So whenever any sharp move comes dare to shun FOMO and jump on, of course only that much amount you can afford to lose. Strong chances you entered near midway 

Standard disclaimer: not a recommendation 😅

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Stop running

In psychology there is a famous principle known as James Lange Principle. It is equally applicable in trading, trading being predominantly a psychological game

That principle says 

We don’t run because we fear, we fear because we run

Except in real emergencies, We  should stop panicking, stop running in life as well as trading

We will be successful even if we are injured in the beginning. Because when we stop running, we see. And when we see, it changes the game.

Everything is not an emergency

Friday, August 2, 2024

markets and politics

markets are part of politics...look at US markets...no president gets elected/reelected, if markets dont do well.... when trump demanded rate cut last month, the almost sure rate cut was delayed by the Fed as they wanted to cut it for the incumbant president but didn't want it to be done coinciding with trump demand

andre minassian, my idol, has openly said it time and again. he never uses charts, but trades on the basis of understanding chess position and vested interests. i strongly recommend his interview series given to ukspreadbetting.... he has given almost no interview before or after, but in this series, he has spilled all beans

https://youtu.be/VUtp5KVR09o?si=3l6GEPzzWhfKQSrL

in trading you are all on your own

 in trading log kya kahenge doesn't matter

nobody is going to share his profit or your loss


all associations are situational and conditional, and till they are pleasant.


ekla chalo

you have to bet

 in trading you can never sure of the outcome of the trade. never. there is always some uncertainty. 

but you can't be indecisive and shaky.... fearing, vibrating, panicking all the time, fiddling with the trade direction.

you have to bet. and have guts to stick to it. 

you have to be ok with losing. only that will give you the guts to be worthy claimant of profit, handsome profit.

and since you have to be ok with loss, you have to manage the risk. can't be foolish gambler.

never swim or trade naked

never swim naked.

atleast never trade naked.

if you are long, instead of buying 2 or 20 lots buy 3ce:1pe pr 30ce:10pe (or in that ratio). always trade hedged. that way, you use more funds, ofcourse, and a bit more in premium decay, but that is the insurance against trades gone wrong or adverse bluff moves.

always trade with a hedge...same instrument is advisable for amateurs. professionals have more sharp options. 

don't hesitate to skim or book adverse moves, if and when they come.

however, this strategy is only if you have a trading system, you know when and why to enter or exit, in which direction is the high probability. if you don't know that or don't know what to do in case of an adverse move, then hedging won't save you much. you have to find ways to recover cost of the hedging insurance.

i, per se, never trade naked. swimming i'm learning. bathing naked is ok.

Thursday, August 1, 2024

what is and isn't in your hand

don't hold yourself responsible for what market does or doesn't

never feel guilty about that.

that is not in your hand. 

the only thing that is in your hand is, deciding what shot to play to the ball pitched at you by the market.

you play stroke not as per your wish but as per the ball.


when can you consider yourself as a pro in trading?

the day you make trading a system based mechanized assembly line 

and you are making consistent profit, both sides, 

and are free from any anxiety, 

you have turned a pro...priod

the real test of the chess player and trader

 every trading day or trade swing, like a chess game has a opening game, middle game and end game.... 

the opening just sets the tone 

and end game just ruthlessly stretches, extends or finishes the win or lose, 

but it is the middle game which is tedious, heavy, boring and demanding. that is the real test of a trader....that's where the outcome gets manufactured or shattered. patience and skill is required. the bets need to be let mature or adjusted.

trading blind

 can you fly a plane in zero visibility?

yes, if you have instruments with the technology.


can u trade without seeing price?

yes, if you have "technicals" technology.


i know some traders who keep price view "off" and trade only by seeing technicals. what they check for is of another level. 


emotionless trading based on instruments.