Friday, November 14, 2014

beauty of being pro-trend

dear dhiraj,

yes, no change in the uptrend, though the trend has paused (rather locked!)

at such points, trend can be considered neutral (neither up nor down), yet i am long (and saying that uptrend is hidden) because of certain parameters discussed above. 

markets may slip down sharp but that will be temporary. those who are in the bus since 8000 or 8100 or 8200 won't mind any such hiccups. for others, any volatility might be a cause of anxious moments testing nerves.

the earlier u catch the trend, safer it is. but, at times, u have no option but to get on to the trend in between (even near the last leg). in those cases, u have to have good holding capacity and cool like a poker player.

however, in my opinion, those who take pro-trend position even at later stages or with terrible timings, rarely lose big!

that's the beauty of being pro-trend.

vice-versa is also, true. those who take anti-trend position even at best times, rarely make big profit! 

Monday, November 3, 2014

lessons from 'freakonomics'

currently reading
"Freakonomics" - by Levitt & Dubner

kept jotting down the lessons in my language or code words to remember for long time............thought u would love to read too

- everything is (or isn't) because of some incentive

- every "conventional wisdom" is a myth

- world is a astronaumical mix of "butterfly effects"

- elephant effects must be obvious, too

- how u look at the data is what it tells u

- economics decides everything

- economics and technology can solver any problem

- there is no truth.....only convenient truth

- perception is the reality

- life is unfair, world is unbalanced, manind is unequal

- goats are born to be milked

- goats are born to be scapegoats

- go to ground zero and check

- demand and supply still decides it

- the whole world is caught in a tournament it knows it has no chance of winning

- try something different to have any chance of making it

- inability to innovate quickly and sufficiently is the world's problem

- time changes the game before u master the rules

- risk vs reward is only for the ruled

- world is the sum total of gangs

- it's all about money, honey!

Saturday, November 1, 2014

fundamentals and trading

dear lakshmi / raju

ur opinions are welcome.

but i am of the opinion that one should never trade on the basis of fundamentals. 

a fundamental(ist!!!) trader is always proven right just after he goes broke.

there is generally a phase difference between the fundamentals and the actual movement. markets are known to sink much before the actual collapse, and known to rise much before actual recovery. is a cat and mouse game. in this tom and jerry one sided chase, cat (operators) is 1% size and 99% power, while the mouse (retail traders) is 99% size and 1% (money) power.

while trading on the basis of fundamentals is a disastrous idea in my opinion, i go to the extent of saying that technicals are quite risky too. operators know what u r looking at before trading. their trap is designed exactly on the basis of that. i have explained this in my numerous articles. 

operators have to be in the minority. they have to make sure that they catch the majority on the wrong foot all of the time. that is how they make money. they will use every trick to make sure that only the fittest and the most adamant are left on their side of the trade. 

i am often surprised, if not shocked to hear traders talk fundamentals!!! 

well, investors should think and talk fundamentals, not traders. 

"technicals know that the news is coming" they say. though not fully, i do believe quite a lot that all fundamentals have built-in technicals.

the exact equation is

fundamentals + tactics = technicals

by the above definition, technicals are not exactly fundamentals. they are loaded with tactics to dress the fundamentals.

whats the idea of being proved right about "fundamentals" and lose all money by then?

never use fundamental or technical knowledge as excuses to reduce the pain of losing.....a veil to hide from the bitter truth!

agreed, that there is a possibility of markets crashing in a few days due to the macro economic factors u have mentioned, but is it wrong or illegal to profit from the bull dash till that time? should we play moral and avoid profiting from this up move just because it is illogical? why not eat while ice cream is being served and enjoy the coffee when its turn will come? won't mind shorting when market falls from the roof.
i'm sure there will be fundamental good news when market slips just to pacify and justify the
"overdue reasons" we are discussing now. a phase difference helps operators trap retail traders and be(belated) right, at the same time!

trading is not purely and totally is a sophisticated gambling where ur gain is sombody's loss. it might sound painful but nice people are not known to be successful in trading unless they call the bluff of not-so-nice people who believe that "everything is fair in love and trading". trading is actually not trading. it is tricking! tricking by the cartel of the cattle!