Monday, February 28, 2011

is day trading appropriate for all?

10 years ago

in a congressional hearing on day trading in US

a report concluded that “a growing number of people are giving up their existing careers or withdrawing their savings to become full-time professional day traders.”

concurrent investigations were launched...............

..........all of these investigations expressed concerns

about the potentially deceptive advertising practices employed by day trading firms.

as a result of these investigations, the NYSE and NASD adopted rules

that required day trading firms to make a determination

that day trading is appropriate for a particular customer.

--

do day traders make money?

do regular day traders perform better than occasional day traders?

= analysis indicates that regular day traders perform better than occasional day traders, though neither group is able to earn sufficient profits to cover transaction costs.

--


do day traders with past profits subsequently outperform those with past losses?

= day traders who historically earned net profits continue to earn profits net of a reasonable accounting for transaction costs.

--

* these are excerpts from research paper submitted by

Brad M. Barber (University of California) &

Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu (National Chengchi University Taipei)

majority individual traders fail early in their careers

"if far fewer day traders are profitable after costs

what keeps new traders coming (into the market)?

.........overconfidence plays an important role

just as participants in lotteries and casinos overestimate their odds of winning,

individual day traders may place too much confidence in their ability

to read market patterns out of the gate.

...the majority of individual day traders fail relatively early in their careers,

something that has been mentioned to me by executives at brokerage firms"

-dr.brett steenbarger

author of 'the psychology of trading'

why 8 out of 10 day traders lose money?

a study of transaction history of the taiwan stock exchange over a five-year period

had revealed the following interesting facts

* individual traders put 22% of their money for day trading

* institutions put 5% of their money for day trading

but the real shocking statistic is this:

"if all day traders (individuals as well as institutional) are arranged in decreasing order of their trade value

then top 1% account for 50% of all day trading volume!!!"

this is the crux of the study

which proves

that day trading is the game which big players play with tiny (i repeat, they said "tiny") players

--

as the authors of the study concluded

"day trading is treacherous, but not entirely a fool's game."

according to them, 8 out of 10 day traders lose money

while a small fraction (i repeat, they said "fraction") of day traders earn large persistent profits.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

keep walking

(a true story)


the sun was yet to rise
it was still pitch dark
and damn cold outside
when i got into my car
turned on the ignition
to drive 120km thru snaky mountain roads
all the way to chandigarh
from shimla
to attend a meeting.
--
i love such journeys
when the entire world outside is sleeping
and i am alone
among the ever-awake
mountains and valleys
echoing with pin-drop latenight silence
giving me an excellent opportunity
to talk to myself!
--
i had barely come out of shimla
and reached shoghi
when i noticed
a medium height
dark shadow
walking some 200meters ahead of me
in the middle of the road!
--
i was jolted out of my thoughts...
i slowed down the car
checked the locks
said my prayer
and focused on the approaching creature
looking like a human!
--
as i neared further
it appeared like a woman
walking with a stick
double her height
with feet as big as those of a hulk!
--
i was petrified.
i never believed in ghosts or spirits
but a doubt always remains!
--
i silently shifted the gear
and got ready to flee at top speed
in case my doubts were to be confirmed!
--
i must have been within a few meters from her
when i saw what i had not seen before!
--
it was a 50plus lady
with dark complexion
in tatters
walking like a dead-woman
holding a 10 foot high stick
(which seemed to be a broken branch of a tree).
--
she never bothered to turn her head
and look at the slow car by her side!
--
who was she
where was she going
at that unearthy hour?
--
and then
i looked at her feet....
--
my eyes went wide open
at what i saw....
--
she was not wearing shoes!
and her jumbo feet
were nothing
but
dozens of
polythene bags
wrapped one over the other
on each foot
to protect them!
--
she was a human!
--
i stopped the car
looked at her
without any fear!
--
she was surely
a mentally challenged
middle aged lady
walking to
unknown destination
back from shimla
which must have failed
to shelter her!!!
--
but where would she go?
every other city she goes to
would just be the same shimla
with another name!
--
i had no answer
i felt helpless
and
decided to move on
with a heavy heart!
--
this entire incidence
got me late by around half an hour!
--
i drove a bit fast
to cover up
for the meeting at chandigarh.
--
all thru the meeting
i couldn't forget her face
the stick she was carrying
and her feet!!!
--
after the meeting
i went to sector 17
to buy a new pair of shoes!
--
i saw several brands
including the ones that said
"impossible is nothing"
"just do it"
"i am what i am"
--
but everytime i asked the price
i was reminded of the lady's feet
wrapped in the polythene layers!
--
i dropped the idea to shop
and started my 120km return journey
into the mountains.
--
it was 7pm
and i expected to reach shimla
before midnight.
--
by now i had forgotten the lady.
--
i turned on the music on the stereo
and kept gliding uphill
when i was again jolted
out of my thoughts
when i saw the same lady
walking downhill
with stick in her hand!
--
the place was jabli
and the lady had covered
over 80 kms
since morning
on foot
on the layers of polythene!
--
i felt a lump in my throat!
--
my head echoed

"impossible is nothing"
"just do it"
"i am what i am"

Saturday, February 26, 2011

4 ways a market can move!

traders want market to move

so they leap at every move of market

including the traps!

--

a market can move in 4 ways

* sharp move with low volumes

= unsustainable trend likely to be reversed

* sharp move with high volumes

= start of a trend

* normal move with low volumes

= just an insignificant drift

* normal move with high volumes

= big trend wave on the move!

how traders learn!

"you make observations,

you formulate theories about what is happening in markets,

you express those theories as hypotheses,

and you test those hypotheses with specific trades that you place.

over time,

your trading experience

either validates your market understanding

or contradicts it,

supporting or leading to modification of your basic theories."

- dr.brett sleenbarger

author of 'the psychology of trading'

4 seasons of stock market

market goes thru the following 4 seasons

(though not necessarily in a fixed order)

1. summer

(non-volatile, trending)

= indicators don't work; just go with the trend

2. winter

(non-volatile, non-trending)

= non-tradeable, holidays, stay away

3. autumn

(volatile, non-trending)

= technicals work best

4. spring

(volatile, trending)

= technicals work reasonably ok but not best; stressful times

--

it is dangerous and stressful to maintain same attitude and approach at all the times.

while it is not fixed which season will come when

but if traders are aware that different "seasons" exist, they will be flexible and adaptive

resulting into less stress and better results.

--

seasons may last from a few days to a few months or more!

not just that

the amazing thing is that

every trading season behaves like an independent mini-season

within the broader-outer season!!

why concentration is so important for a trader?

"there are many patterns in life that we sense,
but cannot fully place into words.

my favorite example is the young child
who creates grammatical sentences when she talks,
but cannot tell you the rules of grammar she is using.

similarly, i can sense clearly
when a person is talking in a very sincere or insincere manner,
but cannot necessarily tell you all the subtle cues--the changes in vocal inflection, the nuances of facial expression--that lead me to that conclusion.

as for the experienced trader, for the seasoned psychologist, it's a gut thing: the result of thousands of exposures to patterns that recur, but rarely the same way twice.

once the concentration of the psychologist or trader is broken,
the access to those subtle gut hunches
is lost.

in that situation, the experienced professional loses contact with years of experience and, indeed, becomes a rookie."

- dr.brett steenbarger
author of 'the psychology of trading'

how our childhood effects trading

"the person who felt unappreciated by parents

now takes on too much risk in markets to become successful and attract the desired admiration;

the trader who experienced painful losses as a child

now freezes up when markets move against him;

the person who rebelled against authority and control in his early years

now finds himself breaking his own trading rules.

when problems from your personal life are interfering with your trading,

it is always the right strategy to stop trading

and pour yourself into resolving those problems.

this does not have to be with a trading coach:

any competent psychologist schooled in brief therapy methods

can help you understand your patterns,

interrupt those,

and replace them with more constructive ways of dealing with the world.

then you can return to trading as a free person with full focus,

ready to acquire and utilize a lifetime of skills."

- dr.brett steenbarger

author of "the psychology of trading"

Friday, February 25, 2011

scary difference between developing and developed stock markets!

over the years

i have noticed

one crucial difference

between developing stock markets (india included)

and developed markets (typically uk, us)!

(somehow i always wanted to write about this

but unfortunately i always forgot to)

--

the difference is big

and scary (once u know the repurcussions of the same!)

the difference is

"in recent years underdeveloped or developing stock markets have tended to move more or less in a pattern

while

the developed markets have been moving more or less randomly!!!"

it has serious remifications.

what?

this indicates

that as long as retail trader fraternity is less developed

they can be overpowered

outmanoeuvered

and trapped

by the operators

relatively easily

by using mass-psychology tricks and tools...

but as more and more proportion of the traded money

starts coming from

software-backed trader-units

(as is the case in the developed markets)

it becomes difficult to play the same tricks on them.

this leads the operators

to the next level of powerplay

= ruthless use of money power

how?

random shaking of the market

using raw money or bulk stock dumping!!!

and when and wherever that happens

big money always beats small money!

--

it is near impossible to catch random behaviour

both with technical indicators

as well as

methods based on patterns!!!

and that is going to be the fate of the developing stock markets

sooner or later!

--

i shiver to think

that retail traders will never be allowed to win!

--

mass heist!!!

--

(self talk : we must find guerilla tricks to trade in random movements!)

don't carry your buttons to the market!

what is your reaction when u see a snake in font of you in the street?

= affection?

--

what is your reaction when you get 3 marks out of 20 in a class test?

= happiness?

--

what is your reaction when you fall from the bicycle while learning to ride?

= celebration?

--

what is your reaction when the chocolate in your hand slips onto the road?

= sigh of relief?

--

how do you feel when someone picks your pocket?

= gratitude?

--

how do you feel when you miss the bus?

= ecstatic?

--

how do you feel when you accidently put a super hot cake in your mouth?

= intoxicated?

--

how do you feel when the number of the lottery ticket is about to be announced?

= bored?



well....well....well.....

our reactions to situations

is very well-known

to the

operators!

--

they know

what button to press

to

make you jump.

--

don't carry your buttons to the market!

or better still

disable them all!

why overcoming trading weakness is not enough!

do u have a trading weakness?

if you know it,

then do something about it.

--

will it help?

yes and no.

--

"yes", because it will not let you

sink

atleast easily and quickly!

you will be around

for reasonable time period.

the more u stay at the wicket

the more chance that u will score decent!

--

"no", because overcoming weakness alone

won't propel you up!

--

for that you need to

build on your strength and style!

--

but how do we know what is your strength & style?

--

well, there is an indirect way to find it out!

--

note down all your trades and details....

all info like

why u entered? when?

why u exited? when?

profit? loss?

--

and after good number of trades

just analyse your record.

what worked

and what failed!

--

amidst the trades which worked & yielded profit and satisfaction

lie your strengths & style!

--

and wrapped inside your losses

are your weaknesses

and incompatibility with your style!

--

thereafter

take the help of a seasoned trader

to finally pinpoint your strengths and weaknesses!

--

thus

you will know your exact weaknesses

required to be plugged

and

strengths and style

required to be built-on!!

training, not just education

"(trader's development).....is typically a lengthy one

and involves numerous setbacks

as well as milestones.

what sustains the growth process

is a very strong interest in the performance field

and a learning process that nurtures continued motivation

and a sense of growing mastery.

talent and interest will not turn into expertise

if they are not channeled into ongoing learning,

review of performance,

and efforts at improvement.

this is why traders require training

(like a physician or Olympic athlete)

not just education."



-Dr.Brett Steenbarger
Author of The Psychology of Trading

i, me and my method!

there was a time

when i used to trade.

now,

i don't.

instead,

my method trades for me.

i just sit on the adjacent sofa

read newspaper, sip coffee

and watch him trade!

--

when i see a situation

i just look at the funny serious face of my method

to check what he is thinking

and what he does?

when he too spots the situation i have already seen

and acts on it the way i think it should have

i feel really proud of it.

but when it doesn't spot the threat or the opportunity

or when he does opposite to what i think

i feel scared.

it takes me a lot of courage

to hold myself back

and silently repeat to myself

that i must not interfere,

and that i must let my method do

whatever he wants!

--

after a while

when i see the outcome of the method's decision

of ignoring the opportunity or threat

i feel ashamed at myself

and double proud of my method!

it is then that i realise

that i did the right thing

in employing my method.

--

now, i have developed

a deep respect and confidence

on my most faithful employee

my method!

psychological development - next level of trading (words from masters)

"Eventually, you will be able to take your psychological development to the next level of trading:

you will recognize when others are making the mistakes you used to make.

You will see markets acting on fear and greed

and you'll be able to take the other side of those reactive trades.

You'll observe when market sentiment is tilted one way

and price can no longer sustain its trend.

Developing yourself psychologically doesn't mean that you'll be free of emotion;

it means that you will become increasingly competent

at using your feelings as useful trading information."

- Dr. Brett Steenbarger (Author of the Psychology of Trading)

Thursday, February 24, 2011

6 rules to avoid getting trapped by operators!

you can't beat the operators

so the best thing

and the only thing you can and should do is

be with the operator!

===

here are the 6 rules for being with the operator (dedicated to mihir shah who provoked me to coin these)

* expect the opposite of the expectation to happen

= the one u think is against logic, is not easy to happen (like fall after huge fall or rise after already huge rise etc.), the one which is against logic, one which is not obvious

* be prepared for unexpected directional changes at unexpected times to unexpected extents. even expect extraordinary straight gradual climb up or climb down when everyone is expecting change in direction.......this is not jugglary of words, it is the straightest i could put it! if u say it is difficult, who said trading was easy (till ofcourse you train yourself!). having said it, let me add that doing all this requires full attention fulltime! only a well trained trader can hope to make money. otherwise, trading is a bermuda triangle if not a black hole!

* in cricket, fast bowler kills not just with a rocket ball but also with slower ball. similarly, in trading, if a move is slow, don't mistake it to be weak and short-term, and if it is fast don't label it immediately as big and sustainable move. a slow move may be a bull-dozer and fast move may be high decibel quicky! anyway, it requires lot of pratice and training to achieve this finesse to negotiate the challenge of the jumbo operators.

* never worry about zig-zag movement. look for the direction of the zig-zag!

* in trading, forget about fundamentals. they are just excuses!

* and last, but not the least, be with the minority (especially while trading in options)

paradise!

world war started

inflation became 40%

gdp crashed

banks failed

interest rates became 22%

government lost vote-of-confidence

social unrest became threatening

consumption tanked

production nose-dived

FIIs fled

global indices had a free fall

.....enough reasons

for nifty to shed 1000 points in

just 100 days

and that too

after truck loads of

explanations

about why it went up 1000 points

in 80 days!!!

--

what a paradise

of, for

but not by

fools!

how to trap traders (operators' manual)

* direction

= do opposite to expectations

= do the unthinkable

= do opposite to the logic

= do the difficult-to-do

= if both bulls and bears are equally divided about the direction, trap both by being rangebound till they divide in majprity-minority ratio.


* change

= keep changing the direction

= do it with stealth


* extent of directional move

= small, big, very small, very big? keep changing? keep them guessing

= how soon will the next direction change - keep them confused


* pace of the move

= do it slowly so that they don't come to know what is exactly happening

= do it so fast that they can't do anything about it


* never move straight

= move in zig-zag

---

and how do they do it? what tools do they use?

# support

= withdraw support to buying during upmove and it will fall

= withdraw support to selling during downmove and it will rise

= support buying and it will soar

= support selling and it will sink


the objective:

trap the majority

at the cost of the minority

---

how?

keep them guessing

keep them confused

catch them on the wrong foot

if u think operators are against the fundamentals

think again!

they do what fundamentals tell

but in the least obvious

and least predictable way.


and if you think

that during strong and big rallies

majority are with the rally

you are mistaken

it is again

the minority that is calling the shot

with majority money!

is their only one operator?

no....there are many

but as compared to the number of retail and small trading houses

these are very few

but with much much more financial muscle.

if they are more than one

how do they co-ordinate?

they don't co-ordinate with each other

they co-ordinate indirectly

via common principles mentioned above.

so what can you do?

simple

trade with an operator's mind.

as a french saying goes -

to be a good bull fighter

learn to be a bull!

but

when you catch their bluff

don't shout

just sit quiet

and see the drama unfold!

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

4 types of trade justifications

there are 4 types of trade justifications

1. trading emotionally and justifying it logically

2. trading logically and justifying it emotionally

3. trading emotionally and justifying it emotionally

4. trading logically and justifying it logically

while the first one is the painful story of traders enmass

the third one is the sign of a casual trader.

--

the fourth one is a sign of a mature trader

while the second is a sign of a legendary trader!!!

bicycle of freedom!

have you ever rode a bicycle?
did you enjoy paddling it?
was it easy to balance it?
how hard was it to paddle it?
--
and
have you ever rode a motorcycle?
was it easy to balance it?
--
now i ask you
an out-of-syllabus question
"would you prefer riding a bicycle with paddle
or riding a motorcycle with paddle!!!"
you would, obviously, be puzzled.
you would say that a motorcycle is moved by a motor
there are no paddles with it
and there is no need for it to have paddles!!
--
agreed.
but my question is still the same.
"if there were a motorcyle sized bicycle
would you prefere paddle riding it
or paddle riding a normal bicycle?"
--
you will
without doubt
prefer
paddling a cycle.....
it would be easy
much easier than paddling the heavy motorcycle!
--
well,
what's the entire fuss about?
simple.
if what we ride,eat,wear,use,buy,drink,see,consume,show-off is our status, our lifestyle
then we maintain the balance for that lifestyle-ride
by paddling it with money.
it is much easier to paddle
a lighter lifestyle, a lighter status
than paddling a heavier one
especially
during the uphills of life!

pitcher of profit!

a successful trader was very upset with himself
and his friends and fellow traders didn't know why!

"you are much more successful in trading than we are
then why are you always melancholic?" they asked him

"today, the market moved up and down three times
and covered a total distance of 85 points.
and look what i got.....just 34!
i missed 51 points!!
yesterday also the same thing happened.
i could get only 23 points out of 47 possible!
don't you think this is enough reason to be unhappy about!"
explained the sad trader.

--

day after day
week after week
the trader kept gaining points
but the worry lines on his forehead kept getting deeper and darker!

--

one friday
after trading hours
he packed his bag
kicked start his bike
and rode straight out of the town
to his native village
on the bank of river dausa.

--

his grandparents noted the tension
written all over once-radiant face of their grand child!
"what's the matter, son!" asked his grandfather who had himself been
a successful fruit trader in his life!

the trader shared his dilemma.

"don't worry about it! everything gonnabe ok!"
the grandfather consoled him.

--

next morning
the grandpa woke up early
went to his grandson's room
and asked
"would you like to come with me for a walk to the river!"

the trader was not interested
"no, grandpa, i don't wish to!"

"you will feel better, son!"
the grandpa tried again.

the trader desperately wanted to feel better.
so, this logic appealed to him.

he reluctantly got out of the bed
freshened up
and joined his grandpa.

both walked all the way to the river.

it was very early in the morning
and the view was breath-taking.

the cool breeze by the river had a soothing effect on the young prodigal trader!

and then

suddenly

the youngman saw something
which shook him big!

he saw the village ladies
go to the river bank,
fill their earthern pitchers with water
put the pitchers on their head
and walk away
smiling and singing!

what struck him was
that the ladies
had not insisted on
or worried about
carrying the entire river
alongwith them.

the ladies knew that river was gushing with huge discharge of water
but they knew their own storing capacity
they knew their carrying capacity
they knew their requirement!

they were happy with pitcher-ful of water!
every lady was carrying a pitcher they could afford
small, big, very big
but none was carrying a pitcher which could suck in the entire river

besides, they also knew that
river will not stop running
and that
they will be back
the next day!

the trader got the message.

"it is not important whether you take home the entire rive of profits

whats important is whether you have filled your pitcher of ability!"

his face suddenly got lit with the radiance
which he once had!

he looked towards his grandfather
the old man knew what his talented grandson had learnt!

both smiled
held each others' hands
and walked back home....

with the trader anxious to hear the opening bell ring on monday!

trader vs wild

there is a very strong chance
that you would have seen
"man v/s wild"
on discovery!

its hero
bear grylls
served in
UK special forces reserve.

the special forces
have a model known as the 3 S’s
for developing elite soldiers.

this model applies brilliantly
to trading as well!

the 3 S in the model are
skill
strategy
and
state

whether man vs wild
or trader vs market

first thing you need is
skill......
nothing without this!

but this skill can easily
fall flat on its face
and flop
without
'strategy'

'strategy' is nothing but
the skill to use a skill!!

but
both skill as well as strategy
evaporate
in the tense atmosphere
of real and live
trading
when money is at stake!

at that time
you need the third
'S'
to ensure
that the other 2 'S'
don't get hypnotised
and freezed!

and this third
most crucial 'S'
is
'state'
(the state of mind)

physical, mental and emotional state
must be highly trained
without which
any ability
will be multiplied by
minus one
and
boomerang!

mind tends to leave us
when we need it most
unless
we have tamed it!

catch the dodge

in cricket
can you pre-decide
how much you are going to score
in the next delivery?
can you pre-judge
whether the next ball is going to be
on the off-side?
or on-side?
or straight?
or a yorker?
or a bouncer?
or good-length?
or short-pitched?

if you swing the bat
according to your
pre-decision
you are in for trouble!

similarly
in football
if you are a goalkeeper
facing a penalty kick,
can you pre-decide
which way
the penalty taker
is going to kick the ball?
left top corner?
left bottom corner?
right top?
right bottom?
straight up?
straight down?
slow?
fast?

if you dive
on the basis of your pre-decision
you are going to look
not-so-good
in the tv replays!

if you think
the batsman can read the bowler
and pre-decide

and if you think
the goalee
can read the body language of the penalty taker

then please remember
the bowler is also seeing the batsman moving
and the penalty taker is also seeing the goalee shuffle!

same in stock market!
pre-judge
but don't bet too much on it.

make sure you see the reality
and catch the dodge
ride the trend
hit a six
and save the goal!

Monday, February 21, 2011

dates for shimla workshop

6-day
day-trading training workshop
at shimla

dates : 11-16th april 2011

for agenda :
http://thebestbusinessintheworld.blogspot.com/2011/02/agenda-for-6-day-training-workshop.html

other details :
http://thebestbusinessintheworld.blogspot.com/2011/02/6-day-training-workshop-in-shimla.html

total seats :
15 only (first come first basis)



jagmohan
094180-37474
jagmohanshan@gmail.com

Sunday, February 20, 2011

fed-up with inflation! (fedup II)

(this is sequel to "fedup but happy!")


one month had passed...

alpha, beta, gamma and delta had settled in their routine

on their 'fedup' island!

more importantly

they were

finally

happy!

one evening

they were sitting around bonfire

and partying!!!

alpha looked at the hut and said

"i am proud of my creation!"

--

beta looked at the bonfire he had created

took a bite of the kebabs he had cooked

and poudly said

"what food, what bonfire! cheers!!!"

--

gamma picked up his rifle he had used to provide security to his teammates from wildlife on the island

kissed it

and said

"no fear

till i am near!"

--

delta

silently listened to the pride-anthems of his buddies

and wanted to present his also...

but he realised that he had nothing to present proudly!

--

so he silently stood up

slipped into the hut

printed 4 "thankyou" (currency notes)

came out

and handed one to each

while keeping one in his wallet!

--

"hip, hip, hurrey!!!"

everyone got happier on receiving the grand "gift"

"we are proud of the finance minister of this island! our dear delta!"

everyone said in a chorus!

--

the grand party ended on a high note!

--

on monday

alpha gave his extra "thankyou" note to beta for extra fruits!

gamma saw alpha enjoying extra fruit and ordered for the same to beta

"here's my thankyou!" he said to beta, extending his note!

just then delta entered the hut

and saw alpha and gamma enjoying their "purchased extra"!

he too took out his extra buck and ordered for "more" fruit.

"its finished!" replied beta, making delta sad!

"have a heart, dear delta. none is left for me too! sold it all to alpha and gamma."

delta consoled himself.

--

but that evening

while alone

beta realised

that his supply for fruit was limited

but money supply in the camp had increased by 33% (4 notes to the 12 existing!)

he knew he couldn't produce more fruits overnight

he also knew more "thankyou's" were chasing his existing supply.

he realised that he couldn't disappoint anyone as well.

he had to do something!

--

by morning

he came out with a "unique" solution to the situation

he increased the price of the fruit platter

(rather every food item)

by 33%!

--

tuesday's newspaper

(printed by delta from his colour printer)

announced

"INFLATION REACHES FED-UP! SOARS BY 33%"

--

by afternoon

delta, the finance minister

decreased his cash-reserve ratio

snatched back extra 4 bucks from everyone (including himself)

tore them apart

to reduce money-supply

and tame inflation.

fed-up but happy!

dejected by the hit they got from the stock market

four friends

α(alpha), ß(beta), γ(gamma) and δ (delta)

left everything behind

and settled on a far off island

undiscovered and untouched by humans so far!

they named the island 'fedup'

why this name?

well they were obviously fed-up with the abnormal "normal" life,

but they wanted never ever to forget the "fed"

the federal bank which made the policies

that made them come to this island!

--

on reaching 'fedup'

they decided to make their own civilisation.

first of all,

they divided work among themselves.

α was given the task of making and maintaing the hut

ß took the responsibility for arranging for the fire, food and water

γ agreed to provide security cover from the wildlife, and

δ accepted the role of keeping accounts and managing the money supply from the colour printer they had brought along.

--

δ printed 12 currency notes

(they called it "thankyou")

δ distributed 3 thankyous to everyone included himself.

everyone gave 1 thankyou to the other 3 for their respective services!

this way

everyone provided one service

everyone consumed every service

everyone spent all three thankyous in his pocket

and was still left with 3 thankyous!!!

this cycle kept repeating beautifully

perfect money supply!

perfect economy!

everyone contributing

everyone consuming

no tension!

all inhabitants of "fedup" became happy!

--

till one day............





(continued in part 2)

Saturday, February 19, 2011

the 4th option!

a horse

is grazing

in the woods.

suddenly he notices a lion at a distance!

horse keeps grazing

but with heightened awareness,

while simultaneously keeping a watch on

and interpreting signals from

lion's behaviour.

finally he sees that the threat is real!

his stress response gets activated.

now

his head will

either ask him to fight

or fly away

to safety!

this is known as the fight-or-flight response

a third dimension is also there

the horse may neither fight

nor "fly away"

but freeze out of fear!

the fight-or-flight response now becomes

the fight-or-flight-or-freeze response!

this interesting phenomenon was first recognised and explained

by the american physiologist walter bradford cannon.

when faced with danger

the prey experiences

accelerated heartbeat, erect hair, pupil dilation, etc.

all typical signs

noticed in traders

when a trade goes wrong!

but even walter cannon would have agreed

that stock market is a place

where

neither fight, nor flight nor freeze works!

when you fight

you are against the trend

and are dragged mercilessly!

when you fly away

you have already booked the loss!

when you freeze

your account melts!

almost always

and inevitably

during trading

a trader's fight-or-flight-or freeze response system gets triggered!

to be a successful trader

one must learn to switch it off immediately

by force!

and opt instead

for

follow-response!

Thursday, February 17, 2011

just sell!

a trader
went into a jewellery shop
to buy a diamond necklace
for his wife
an evening before the valentine day!
--
he selected a dazzling one
paid 1.2 lacs
put the necklace in the bag
came out of the showroom
and was about to get into his car
when suddenly
he noticed four
well-built guys
staring
at him
from across the street!
--
first he thought
they were looking casually
but then his gut told him
that something was wrong about
the way they were looking at him!
--
he hurried to locate car-keys in his jacket
the guys leaped towards him
on seeing them coming
he abandoned his car
and started running fast
into the adjacent street!
--
the guys followed him
he started running faster
much faster
street after street
the guys kept running behind him!
--
he
then
suddenly
slipped into a very narrow street
and reached
a small time
jewellery shop!
--
an idea struck him.
he entered this shop
and offered to sell the jewellery
after showing the receipt
he had just got
from the previous jewellery showroom!
--
"i can pay 75000 for this!"
said the man across the counter.
"but i just paid 1.2 lacs for this!"
protested the trader!
"sorry!"
replied the busy salesman!
--
the trader refused to sell
the jewellery
at a loss!
he stood up
turned
and
saw outside
the four gentlemen
waiting for him!
--
the trader called the police
from his cell!
the policeman on the other side
was also into trading
part-time!
--
"i will be late! just sell!"
the trader in the uniform advised.
"never worry about the purchase rate
when the trade has gone wrong!"

full-time

some tasks
which demand full-time attention
otherwise
they are likely to
backfire!

piloting (especially a fighter jet)

fire-fighting

praying

burglary

dying

thinking

performing surgery

cooking

war-front

and

day trading!

it is never too late!

it is never too late

to say "sorry"

--

it is never to late

to return home

--

it is never too late

to learn

--

it is never too late

to start living

--

it is never too late

to take care of health

--

it is never too late

to admit your mistake

--

it is never too late

to befriend an enemy

--

it is never too late

to join a rally

--



if things still don't work

you always have the option

of

"stop loss"

--

this act of

unilateral courage

will be the one

u will never regret!



besides giving u a consolation

that atleast u tried!



and who knows.......



all great achievements

including your birth

were once

a grave risk!!!

why otherwise successful people struggle in market?

because
they have high IQ (intelligent quotient)
and even higher EQ (emotional quotient)
but very low TQ (trading quotient)

the more intelligent u r
the more u try to do
"your thing".

the more intelligent u r
the more u use logic.

the more emotional u r
the more u react
to the stimulant
of big pocket operators.

the more emotional u r
the more ur ego inflates
and stronger u cling
to bad positions.

so,
if u r struggling in the market
congratulations!
it reconfirms
that u r
intelligent
and highly emotional.

but if u r a successful trader
it doesn't mean that u r
unintelligent or an emotionless rock.
it only means
that
u have successfully tamed ur
emotions
and
locked ur intelligence.

u have a developed
TQ (trader quotient)
which is synonymous with
trend quotient

TQ
is not what we are born with
it is not available off-the-shelf
it is earned by

learning, followed by
hard experience
freezed method
dogged practice
and
ruthless discipline.

so if u have high IQ
and high EQ
u don't have to bring them down
just leave them outside the trading room
and wear ur TQ.

3 ways stocks and indices can move

stock or indices

can move in the following three ways only

1. gap opening (overnight movement) only

2. intraday movement only

3. gap opening + intraday movement

the second type can be managed by the ways mentioned in my post

"high probability entry/exit points"

the first type is slightly difficult to catch except with btst/stbt

positions (not easy to predict - trying to crack the code and will

share with you)

another way to catch the first type of movement is thru swing trading

the third type of movement can be further divided into 4 sub-types

a) small gap opening, big intraday movement

b) small gap opening, small intraday movement

c) big gap openinig, big intraday movement

d) big gap opening, small intraday movement

can't do much about b) and d)

c) is rare but profitable

a) can be most profitable

how

with the ways mentioned in

"high probability entry/exit points"

remember 80% of the gain happens from 20% of the opportunities

meaning thereby,

that we should not trade like a salaried trader

but like a businessman trader

and trade only opportunity.

we have no boss to answer except

ourselves

and wife!

happy trading!

high probability entry exit points in day & swing trading

support-resistance breakout/down and reflect-back

change of direction of price zig-zag

step-up step-down support base points

fibonacci points (stop loss hook support)

trend resume points at extreme william%r

(extended outer) spikes

first pullback

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

are u an optimist or pessimist trader?

optimist trading students
survive difficulties
longer, better and easier
and
have better chance
of succeeding
than
pessimists.

are you an optimist
or a pessimist?

take the following test by Dr. Martin Seligman
in the link below and find out.

http://www.stanford.edu/class/msande271/onlinetools/LearnedOpt.html

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

yes boss!

market

is like a strict boss

who rarely appreciates your good work

but leaves no opportunity

to reprimand you

and put you on the mat

for any mistake

you commit

even innocently!

==

however,

in the market

if you accept and acknowledge

every mistake honestly and promptly

and silently self-admire

every correct thing you do,

it can turn out to be

the best training for you!

---

champions sitting behind your shoulder (words from masters)

"Imagine a training program for traders

in which there is daily observation

of leading traders making decisions,

frequent interaction with those traders

to understand what they are doing and why,

and supervision of students' trading decisions by those traders.

It would be like having world-class poker champions

sitting behind your shoulder as you play,

offering immediate observations and coaching.

Expertise development that normally might require many years of effort

could now occur in a fraction of that time.

That is the vision.

The key is recognizing that

it is the structure--and not just the content--of a learning experience

that accounts for its success.

Most learning efforts fail

because there are too few cycles of performance-feedback-goal setting-corrective effort per unit of time

and no clear curricular progression guiding the content of those cycles.

The core concept is that,

whether you are a poker player, trader, or something else,

you can become much better at what you do

by creating more and better learning cycles.

For the real champions, nothing less will suffice."

- Dr.Brett Steenbarger

thank you, my anonymous friend

my dear friend ( i don't know ur name, i am putting across ur healthy criticism and therefore, atleast have the right to know ur name),

ur views are not really surprising for the following reasons

1) in our country teachers are not being respected since quite some time. they are paid peanuts as compared to the packages they prepare their students for.

2) in our country intellectual property right is a joke. piracy is unabated. this results into poor investment in r&d (it costs)!

3) i understand ur pov considering the number of crooks and demi-experts around.

4) i understand that we are a country of freebies who have scant respect for the effort and cost one incurs to find something knew. not surprising that our gdp despite being a 1.2 billion army is lesser than countries one tenth the population and 1 hundredth the size!

5) if u think i am not an achiever in the markets and just want to preach , pl wait and watch. but by that time it might be too late for many. anyhow, being a teacher is not an abuse!

6) if u think only those who can't do are the ones which teach, i think u r severely mistaken.

i am into a well-paid job. i would have to take leave of more than a fortnight to prepare for this workshop. i will be hiring techies to handle some issues, i am arranging for rare and highly valuable training material and videos, i will be hiring conference hall for a week with projector and lease line, besides other expenses.

regards

Jagmohan

price is what u pay, value is what u get (workshop)

dear bijen / anonymous,

1) the fee for the workshop includes boarding lodging for 7 days

2) i will be on-leave from my current well-paid assignment for atleast over a fortnight for preparing and conducting the workshop.

3) i am hiring best team to help me in the workshop besides other expenses of conference hall, projectors etc.

4) the training material i will be sharing is one of the best available in the world!

5) it will be one of the best workshops of its kind in the country. it will be recorded and preserved.

6) the net fee is an investment easily recoverable in a few sessions by the willing student

7) and last but not the least, i will be sharing the digest of years of hardwork and insights. attendees will get jet thrust in their learning curve especially those who are finding stuckup in a groove since months and years.

agenda for the 6-day training workshop

proprietary day trading methods

identification of trend, trend change and trend reversal

step-up step-down theory

spike, climb and shift theory

structure theory

using trained gut to scalp

outer circle theory

btst

how to trade gap openings

how to trade first 30minutes

TIR method for rangebound movements


hundreds of practical examples

live trading for 6 days

mental toughness

millionaire mindset

what all to see in a graph

intensive q & a sessions

using support and resistance

setting & using stop loss

advance rsi

advance william%r

advance SAR

identifying and avoiding pitfalls of trading

leveraging investments safely

Monday, February 14, 2011

6-day training workshop in shimla

i am planning to conduct
a 6-day training workshop
on day trading
with my proprietary methods
in shimla
in april 2011
--
participation fee
INR 35000/-
(including applicable taxes, hotel accomodation on twin sharing for 6 nights with meals, training material)
those interested to
be a part
may reach me
at
jagmohanshan@gmail.com

Sunday, February 13, 2011

goodbye technicals!

i seem to have come full circle.
first, i didn't know technicals.
second, i learnt technicals.
third, they got me profit.
fourth, i saw their limitations.
fifth, i saw their severe shortcomings.
sixth, i saw thru their pathetic record.
seventh, my infatuation with tehnicals was over!
i kept them aside
and started looking for "something else"!
--
to find that "something else"
other than fundamentals
and technicals
i thought it apt to understand
"who or what made me take up technicals?"
--
soon
i realised that
initially
the stock market started with "investing"
then came the mad race of transfer of ownership of investments
resulting in the birth of "trading"!
this was followed by mass participation in trading
and then came "speculation"
and the game changed forever!!!
--
gradually
more and more people started getting attracted
towards the "wonder business" called trading!
--
but till that time
trading was based on knowledge of business prospects.
since many couldn't judge the business prospects right
they got frustrated.
this made many smart people think hard.
some bold souls came up with the theory
that the price fluctuation could be predicted.
--
as this theory gained ground
many more started finding ways to predict.
they came out with their own methods!
many methods seemed to work (atleast for the time being)!
the thirsty mob over-estimated the abilities of these methods
ignored theor shortcomings
and over-reacted!
thus, were born
the technical indicators!
--
while the inventors of the indicators
were obviously proud of their inventions,
they got unexpected support
from suspected quarters...
the new breed of unsuccessful traders
the experts!
--
a whole generation of experts and trainers popped up!
books, articles, software and seminars....!
a whole industry got erected almost overnight!!
--
and guess who came up with solid support
to this industry?
--
you got it right
....the brokerage houses!
they spared no efforts to make you believe
that
stock market was the answer to all our financial worries
and that
technical indicators
were the sure-shot answers
"the secret"
to decode the market!
--
and who supported the brokerage houses?
you again got it right
...the banks!
--
and who supported the banks?
obviously
...the governments (who wanted to sell the prosperity story!!!)
--
as they say in china
"repeat a lie ten times and it becomes the truth"
what about the lie that was being repeated a million times!!?
that
"if you know technicals, you can predict the market movement!!!
--
this resulted into mass hypnotism
mass hysteria resulting into mad rush
to learn "enough" technical analyses!
--
every single success story
buried
ten bitter failures!
--
the mass exodus into markets
resulted into
the entry of sharks
the ones who had
mountains of cheap (low interest) money
who could make any rubbish stock zoom up
and after having collected enough
could crash it at will
by sudden flood of supply!
-
--
---
----
the saga continued!
the saga continues!!
--
today it is mcuh bigger
and stronger
and deeper rooted!
a multi-trillion industry
attracting millions of
innocent souls
bringing in pocketful of money
from their savings
to lose it all in "the pit".
--
...and the beauty is
none blames the technicals
everyone blames his level of knowledge of technicals.
such is the depth of the myth
that nobody dares to challenge the authenticity of the technicals!
--
it is one of the biggest ongoing daylight heist in the history of mankind!
by the "men-in-white"
who preach indicators
like a holy religion
beyond doubt
beyond question!
--
isn't it amusing
that
the operators ask everyone to follow technicals
and they themselves use raw brutal money power
to hunt us all!
--
the fact is
indicators are poor chaps!
they see the robber running
and tell you
(rather shriek at the top of their voice)
but themselves get tricked!
innocent traders believe the honest technicals
not knowing that even the indicators have been taken for a ride!
technicals are the last and only
footrest for ordinary masses
to have a foothold
in the market
....so nobody dare lose them!
this way
technicals
are being used
for mass genocide
in the market chambers!
--
indicators either predict wrong
or too early
or too late
or too less
and too infrequently!
--
indicators pre-dict
indicators post-dict
but none
present-dicts!!!
--
and that is the flaw
the critical
fatal flaw!!!
--
big pockets
use this flaw
to trap everyone.
they make the price fluctuate
in zig zag
knowing very well
that every small trader
has small pocket
and big fear!
big pockets know
that small traders are like sparrows
ever ready to fly away
at the gunshot of an empty cartridge!
--
i have just one simple straight question
"if technicals worked that great
and there are many technical experts in the world
who are already super Ph.D.'s in technicals
why aren't there just a handful of
buffets and goldmanns?
why are tech geniouses busy selling their knowledge
and not making money by trading?"
--
because
it is all makeover!
a big hollow artificial setup!!
a global casino!!!
where only those call the shot and win
who either have mega money
or power to influence!
those
who can drag technicals mercilessly
for miles!!!
--
so?
what is the truth?
--
the truth is
don't predict
don't post-dict
just present-dict!
--
why predict
when the result is
always
instantly
available before our eyes!
--
a bird in hand
is definitely worth
ten in the (am)bush!!!
--forget about technicals
(just learn them for curiosity)
trade, not by technicals
but by directions
of the zig-zag!
--
learn the language of zig zag movement of price
practice identifying the change in direction of price despite zig-zag
and practice identifying the continuity of direction despite zig-zag!
--
the biggest secret of the market is
it can't move from a lower point to higher
or higher to lower
without taking a direction!
if you can spot a definite direction
of the price on 1 month chart
great!
go for the swing trade.
and stay in the trade
till the direction is intact
despite the fluctuations!
if you can't spot a direction on 1 month chart
try 1 day chart!
in intraday charts
every price changes direction 0 to 2 times
giving enough opportunity to make profit!
--
forget about technicals.
train your eye
to spot the entry of the price
into a direction
wrapped in the disguise of
zig-zag!
--
believe me!
trading is much easier than you think
provided
you don't insist to complicate it!
====================

my journey without technicals can be traced thru the following recent posts

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=79263
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=78472
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=78138
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=77886
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=77576
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=77502
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=77098
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=77226
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=77006
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=77005
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=74621
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=74561
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=74251
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=74366
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=74000
http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=76233

Saturday, February 12, 2011

true investors are like farmers

it is said

'for investing use fundamentals

and for trading use technicals'

these two statements are true lies.

they are grossly mischievous

and universal myths!

--

the first line about investing

is targetted towards those

who are not 'investors' in true real sense.

they are the 'leftovers'

who don't have the know-how and the sense of "investing"

nor do they have the time and sense of trading.

--

they take 'investing using fundamentals' as an alibi.

they superficially check the "fundamentals"

and buy a cheap mask of "investor".

what they take as "fundamentals"

are nothing but clever cookies targetted at their heads

by "hackers"!

fundamentals are not just numbers

fundamentals are foundations!

--

the confidence in the investment is absent

the hearty self-assurance and excitement of having "invested in a promising business"

is missing.

consequently,

expectation or fear of short-term gain or loss

reveals the true colours

of the real "investor" under the garb!

the "investor" absconds!

--

true investors are like farmers

....seeking the potential and promise

of a seed or sapling turning into a tree

or a full grown tree continuing to yield

juicy fruits

season after season!

Friday, February 11, 2011

popcorns!

a farmer

put his bumper maize produce

in the tractor trolley

went straight to the market

sold it all

and returned home

with bagfull

of cash.

--

he put the bag of fortune

on the table

opened it

and gave a bunch of currency notes

to his freshly graduated son

"this is for you, enjoy!!!"

--

he, then

picked up the bag

locked it in the almirah locker

and went straight to the store room.

there

he saw

one last big bag full of maize corns

he had kept back.

he emptied the bag

on the floor

and divided it

into two heaps.

--

"what are you doing, dad!"

his son asked

who had followed him into the store room.

--

"this heap, son

is for making popcorns

for all of us

for the rest of the year.

and that heap

i will sow back

as seeds

into the field

for next season's harvest!!!"

son heard this

and went out.

--

the farmer put the two heaps

in separate bags

put them aside

and came out!

--

and there he saw

his son

re-counting the money

he had just got!

"now what are you doing?" the father asked

"this bunch, dad

is for my luxury popcorns

and this one

is for investing!"

nobody goes home......

often

i stumble across guys

who passionately tell me

that they too

have been in the "share market"

"once upon a time"

and

they left it

after failing

repeatedly

and big!

--

i am yet to find

a single person

who said

"i quit after losing once!"

--

warren buffet

must be a genious

for having figured it out

at the age of 14

that

"nobody ever goes home after the first race!"

--

it is trader psychology

to keep trying

again and again

if they are losing!!!

alas, if only

they tried differently everytime

and with improved method!

if only,

they sensed

what they missed

in their very first defeat!!!

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

if FIIs were not selling...

experts say

that since the market has been falling

day after day on low volumes

(number of pilgrims that went uphill

were much more than the numbers returning downhill)

it clearly means

that some sellers are behind this

continuous slide,

FIIs are not selling!

--

if FIIs were not selling

and have not sold much

since last 1000 point slide,

they (the FIIs)

must be sitting on loss!!!

and if that is the case

and assuming they are not dumb

the FIIs are not worried about the loss

neither about the double dip

......a big bull run is going to resume!

if FIIs are not selling

they are expecting much bigger wave!

they must be buying

or waiting to buy

at low levels!

Sunday, February 6, 2011

who will bear the cost?

66 years ago

a 14 year boy

filed an income tax

of $7 !

not just that,

he had deducted

the cost of his wrist watch

and bicycle

as

business expenses!!!

even this boy

knew

that in job

first you pay income tax

and then bear all the expenses

whereas

in self-employment

you deduct all expenses

from gross profit

and pay tax

on the leftover!

--

the boy?

warren buffet!

revenge and forgiveness

have you ever taken revenge?
do u believe in revenge?
or do u believe in forgiving?
--
if u have ever taken revenge
do u remember the end result?
didn't it make u feel even worse?
--
and do u remember
how u felt
when u forgave
and moved ahead
to spot the lesson
only to take
your kind of sweet revenge
differently
and
very effectively!
--
then why do we get bitter
why do we go after the market
to take revenge of the loss
then and there?
and in the process
expose ourselves further
losing bigger
and bleeding more!
--
instead
why don't we acknowledge
the defeat of the moment
take the lesson
forgive
and retreat
with a resolve
to improve
to take our own sweet revenge
our way
on our day!!!
--
in the words of
warren buffet
"you don't have to make it back the way you lost it!"

you don't buy a bournville in stock market too!

they say

you don't buy a bournville

you earn it!

but what do people actually do?

out of sheer temptation

they are already decided

to enjoy a bournville!

do they stop

and double check

whether they have earned it?

no!!!

they know they have the bucks in the pocket

they go forward

buy it

peel the wrapper

and slip it onto the wet tongue!

result?

pterodactyl,

the flying reptile

comes out of nowhere

takes them away

only to return them

sans

life!

same things happens in stock markets!

amateur

unsuspecting traders

"decide" to buy a stock

out of sheer temptation

without double checking

whether they have really "earned" the trade

thru method and patience!

result?

the flying reptiles of stock market

appear out of nowhere

and take them away

only to return them

lifeless

and

sans

money!

SWOT

you must have heard about
the SWOT.

S=strengths
W=weaknesses
O=opportunities
T=threats

stock market
probably
is the only place
where
even the threats are opportunities!

and
trading weaknesses
are
the real threats

who became rich by trading?

the fearing didn't

the unmethodical couldn't

the gambler wouldn't

the broker shouldn't

--

the honour

went

to an underdog

'the obedient'

who just followed

the trend!

Saturday, February 5, 2011

verbal mis-programming

in his masterpiece "the secrets of the millionaire mind" t.harv.eker has underlined that our lifelong verbal programming is one of the biggest roadblocks towards developing a millionaire mind! he has pointed out some typical examples. lets see what effect verbal programming can have on us.
--
verbal programming : money is the root of all evil
what effect it has on our minds : we don't want evil, so it is good thing to have less money
--
verbal programming : save your money for a rainy day
what effect it has on our minds : lets not spend it, lets postpone the enjoyment, since we have to desist from spending on joy, we need less money..........let's also wait for the rainy day!
--
verbal programming : rich people are greedy
what effect it has on our minds : we don't want to be called "greedy", so it is not a bad thing not to be rich. also, since we are not that greedy, it is obvious that we are not that rich. (we wouldn't mind being greedy to get rich but don't know how to be!!!)
--
verbal programming : rich people are criminals
what effect it has on our minds : we don't want to be seen as "criminals" so it is not a bad thing not to be rich! also, since we can't be criminals, it is obvious that we can't be rich
--
verbal programming : you have to work hard to make money
what effect it has on our minds : since we are not rich we must not have worked hard enough. since we can't work harder so we can't be rich. we don't know any other way, so we have no other option to keep trying harder!
--
verbal programming : money doesn’t grow on trees
what effect it has on our minds : any money growing as if on trees is not real and sustainable. also, we must not look for trees on which money grows!
--
verbal programming : you can’t be rich and spiritual together
what effect it has on our minds : since we prefer spirituality it is ok not be rich. also, since to be rich we would have to lose spirituality, it is ok that we stay that way! besides, since we don't think we can be rich, we better have an alibi in spirituality!
--
verbal programming : money doesn’t buy happiness,
what effect it has on our minds : if money can't buy happiness, why have it! also, if having money after all the pains is not going to make us happy why bear the pain!! besides, all sorrow in our lives is not because of lack of money, so why blame money and go after it! and, if at all,we do admit that money can buy happiness, we would be left with no excuse to dress-up our inability to make money! on the contrary, whenever we are unhappy with money we better shed some to be happy!
--
verbal programming : the rich get richer and the poor get poorer,
what effect it has on our minds : if we are not getting richer, we should be getting poorer. we suspect and look forward to events to prove this! also, if we are not getting richer, we can't be held responsible for making the poor poorer!
--
verbal programming : that’s not for people like us, we can't afford it!
what effect it has on our minds : so we must not waste too much energy bothering about it! besides, if we can afford it, it might be a mistake and needs to be corrected!

ATM

stock market

is like

an

ATM

which is open

5 days a week,

forever,

can be assessed from anywhere,

can dispense money

even without

depositing!

--

all....

provided

you know the PIN.....

the method!

--

as dr.phil mcgraw

says in his masterpiece

'life strategies'

"crack the code

otherwise your fate is sealed!"

--

Friday, February 4, 2011

noise

does warren buffet watch business tv channels?

yes and no!

yes

because he is fond of watching

cnbc.

no

because he keeps the sound muted!

the scrolling strip at the bottom

keeps feeding him

"news"

on a conveyor belt

from which

he picks

what he chooses

uninfluenced by

noise!

fortune

great french novelist balzac

had written

"behind every great fortune, there is a crime!"

--

how true

about the majority rich!

how true

for the majority

big bulls

and strong bears

of stock market!

--

how untrue

about the unsuspecting masses

in every avenue

including

the dalaal street!

my day trading notes

my day trading notes

- price can't take more than 3 directions in a single trading day

- book profit at sharp big spike but don't take reverse position

- don't enter premature while approaching a direction change

- breaching of yesterday or tody high-low is a clear signal of the start of first direction

- if market over-retraces its rebound after its very first sharp opening move it has taken its first direction

- change in direction is to be verified with step-up step-down theory

- play a direction to the full except in case of a sharp big spike

- re-enter trade on every fresh breakdown or breakout albeit with strict stop loss

- with ruthless stop-loss, any risk with acceptable risk-reward ratio can be taken

- can't afford to miss gap-up openings (2/3rd times), btst is a must

- bite (trade size) what you can chew.

- every visual support and resistance should be respected. reverse trade at these will benefit often.

- beware of rsi divergence (especially bullish divergence)

- beware of the collapse or suck points

- william % r touching extreme before rsi touching the extreme is a sign of trend resumption

- rsi retreat (while price remaining flat) is also a sign of strong resumption of trend

- always turn-down anti-trend positions till direction is intact

- i take the first trade only when the price has taken clear first direction. thereafter, i change direction only when there is clear change in the direction. alternatively, i book profit in case of a sharp big spike. thereafter, i re-enter the trade if there is a change in direction or fresh breakdown or breakout off yesterday high-low or today's high-low.

- i always have a permanent long position. all i have to do is defend that long position whenever the price direction turns down. all i have to do is to find opportunities to drag down the price without incurring any loss. this way i inject value into my holdings. going up is natural and inevitable. this reduces my stress and trading by half as i have to look for and take only short positions.

- i have sufficient buffer funds to meet any unforeseen eventuality

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

signals of collapse and suck-up!

when does a range-bound price finally collapse?
when does a range-bound price finally shoot up?

is there any signal?

fortunately, there is one!

when price is rising slowly
but rsi rises considerably
almost from below-20 to 70plus
many times
it is about to be sucked up sharp!

when price is sliding slowly
but rsi slides quite a bit
almost from 80-plus down into 30s
many times
it is about to collapse!

Photobucket

Photobucket

remember the only condition : the price must have been range-bound before this condition.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

3 levels of trader training

there are three levels of a trader's training.
--
at first level
a budding trader is supposed to
learn the technique of
(1) trading
(2) consistently / repeatedly
(3) with tamed fear
(4) with control over the trade
(5) with cool head
and
(6) profitably
(7) with surety to a reasonable degree!
--
only
after this
the trader reaches
level two of training.
--
in this second (advance) level
he needs to find
safe and effective ways
to leverage
his
proven technique
to build his networth!
--
in the third level
the trader
has to learn to manage
his millions
to keep gliding
like an eagle high in the sky
without much fluttering of wings!
--

the big worry of a trader!

the entire family of a trader

was watching the movie

"2012"

together

on a sunday afternoon

on their 32 inch

new plasma tv!

--



by the end of the movie

the entire family

was

dead frightened!

the very fact

that the world would end

(as per the prediction of the maya calender)

on december 23, 2012

and the visuals of the likely disaster

in the movie,

had sucked the life out of the whole family!

--

everyone was

tense

and

speechless

TILL

the trader

uttered innocently

"if the world ends on 23rd december 2012

which is a sunday

what will happen to

the open positions

in the stock market

on monday!!!"

cost of training

do u have any idea

how much does it cost to do MBBS these days?

how much does it cost to do B.Tech. from a good engineering college?

what does it cost to do an MBA from a top management institute?

how much does it cost to get a pilot's license from a flying school?

any idea how much you need to shell out

to become a trained

"qualified"

experienced

professional

stock trader?

it is, in my opinion

one of the best

and yet

the cheapest

professions on earth!

provided you are willing to learn

at the cost of

every drop of sweat

and blood!